I think calling this turn bet is -EV

[checkmate36]

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Villian in this hand only has 22 hands in my PT but thus far he has played 50% of them and raised 4%. He appears to be a bit loose or on a good run of cards.
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

I didn't really mind calling with this hand from MP1 and it has been a passive table thus far. Anyone wait till later position for Axs? Im trying to get my VP$IP up from 13%. Im too tight. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

This call looks standard.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds.

On the turn I have 3 outs to the 3. (didn't like the paired board)/2 outs to the 4 /1.5 to the overcard Ace. Roughly 6 outs. Can you count the 3rd 5?? I didn't really think so but maybe its worth another .5 outs.

I thought the pot was too small to continue. How does it look to you guys? Thanks for the help.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn I have 3 outs to the 3. (didn't like the paired board)/2 outs to the 4 /1.5 to the overcard Ace. Roughly 6 outs. Can you count the 3rd 5?? I didn't really think so but maybe its worth another .5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your 3 outs are dirtied here because you might chop, not because of the paired board. All in all, this estimate of outs is OK, and has you almost calling getting 6.5:1.

But when you're counting outs you're assuming you're behind -- there's a very good chance that you're actually ahead here. I think I'd prefer a bet/raise somewhere over a fold.

[W. Deranged]

You have a very promising understanding of the game for the .10/.20 level.

You have one significant flaw in your reasoning: You are forgetting that you might have the best hand!

That flop misses all of your opponents who have overcards. Among hands you might be beating are AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, and so on, which may or may not be played by a 4% vpip villain.

In a three-handed pot, I wouldn't worry too much about the 5 personally. In fact, you should realize that the 5 is probably a good card for you in that it is not a scary overcard to your pair of 4s.

Personally, I would tend to get more aggressive with this hand on the flop. I like betting into the pre-flop raiser here and reevaluating. Another option would be betting the flop, but if we do have 6ish outs, we probably have to call a raise on the turn, and I really don't want to have to do that.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Im too tight. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You also don't have much in the hand-reading department. Folding here is usually going to be -EV.

With only one limper in front of me, I fold this preflop, for the very reason you're seeing here (you're often likely to pair the kicker or flop a flush draw that you'll have thin odds to pursue).

The problem here is you're thinking about the wrong odds. MP has overcards of some sort. Whether he has a pair or not is debatable - statistically, there are more non-pairs possible than pairs, even within preflop raising range. He could have AQ, AK, AJ, KQ...if he's a good player, he might even be raising JTs.

I'd say you have a slightly better than 50% chance of having the best hand at the turn. The board right now is strongly in your favor. In fact, I would have bet the flop to push my edge while it's the greatest (which is where your BDFD and inside straight draw come in).

[2+2 wannabe]

Preflop is fine

Bet flop though - you probably have the best hand. If you're raised by MP2 you'll have to slow down. Check-call turn and river.

This turn fold is probably -EV

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
With only one limper in front of me, I fold this preflop, for the very reason you're seeing here (you're often likely to pair the kicker or flop a flush draw that you'll have thin odds to pursue).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ack! Suited aces are good limping hands from almost all positions when expect just a few other villains to play with you. Also, you *RARELY* have thin odds to pursue a flush draw. Most often, you've got plenty of pot coming your way when you have a flush draw. Also, pairing your kicker often puts you in position to reverse dominate the preflop raiser and get paid off.

[ QUOTE ]
The problem here is you're thinking about the wrong odds. MP has overcards of some sort. Whether he has a pair or not is debatable - statistically, there are more non-pairs possible than pairs, even within preflop raising range. He could have AQ, AK, AJ, KQ...if he's a good player, he might even be raising JTs.

I'd say you have a slightly better than 50% chance of having the best hand at the turn. The board right now is strongly in your favor. In fact, I would have bet the flop to push my edge while it's the greatest (which is where your BDFD and inside straight draw come in).

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you get "slightly better than 50%"?