Runner's ugly NBA picks

[Runner Runner]

These picks should have good value, as they will be derived from a consensus of opinions from other reliable sources. A common trend may be to fade line moves where the squares are overbetting a favorite, especially on the road. In any case, these plays should mostly be ugly, so bet them with your head down and don't look up until the final score.

Pick #1 New Orleans +8

YTD 0-0

I took New Orleans with the money line in the inagural pick of my new bare bones, low unit system.

[dankhank]

i'm on this too.

heres to an ugly season with pretty financials

[llabb]

Good idea. Could you say what the list of sources that you're compiling from is?

Perhaps this is one of them, but Gold Sheet's end of year rankings from last season indicate that Sac should only be a 4 pt fav here. New Orleans has also improved since last year, adding Chris Paul and Desmond Mason, while Sac is fairly similar.

[Runner Runner]

Hornets by a bunch, that wasn't so ugly after all. 2 Wednesday value bets, a few too many points for Minny and take the Wizards on the road against a weak Toronto team.

Portland +11
Washington -1.5

YTD 1-0

[Runner Runner]

Adding Atlanta +12. Too many points.

[Runner Runner]

Post deleted by Runner Runner

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
Removing Atlanta +12 as it is not available. I got it, but the line has steamed down to 7 due to Richardson probably not playing. There may be value on the other side if the public overreacts.

[/ QUOTE ]

still +12 at betjamaica if anyone has that sportsbook.

[Runner Runner]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
Removing Atlanta +12 as it is not available. I got it, but the line has steamed down to 7 due to Richardson probably not playing. There may be value on the other side if the public overreacts.



still +12 at betjamaica if anyone has that sportsbook.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake, the play is still widely available. I was looking at the halftime lines by accident. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Runner Runner]

No plays for today as we are too late for the line moves. Early picks for Friday are as follows:

Utah +8

YTD 3-1

[MHoydilla]

I am not sure if I like Utah here, but I do think this line will be 9 by game time. You will probably be better waiting till Friday before you bet it.

[Runner Runner]

Adding Orlando +2.5

[Runner Runner]

O.K looks like Utah at +8 was a good play as the line moved down to 6.5. Orlando moved half a point the other way, I honestly think this game is a pick though as I don't see Memphis being as strong this year.

I am adding Philadelphia -7. I just have to fade the line move down to 7 as I think that it's a square move and Philly will be motivated to give a full effort after losing their first two.

[MHoydilla]

Line of Utah + 8 is a very good line, I didnt know when I told you wait a day that Barron Davis would be out. I actually bet GS - 9 +125 last night. I agree with you on Philly, line is moving towards Char a team that lost their only game after being up 21 going into the 4th.

[Runner Runner]

Nailed Utah, missed on Philly and Orlando.

Alright, call me a fish but I will bite on Charlotte +1.5. Charlotte is playing great.

YTD 4-3

[llabb]

Good call on Utah, and if it eases the pain, plenty of good cappers got hurt by Philly sucking so bad. They'll probably get killed by Indy tonight as well, high line already though.

I'm starting to like the Cha fish play as well. Will wait and see how the morning lines work out. Do you generally play overnight lines or wait for Skybook and the half point?

[20Five]

yeah philly.. mingia.. lost 3 units on a moneyline play with them.. argh /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Runner Runner]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you generally play overnight lines or wait for Skybook and the half point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Overnight at Pinnacle.

[Runner Runner]

Miami -3, Shaqless Heat should still be a bigger home fave then this.

YTD 5-3

what does YTD stand for?

[dealer_toe]

Year To Date.