A hand from the 2+2 table last night

[MrWookie47]

Nope, not from the Omaha table. There was a small LHE game going at the same time. It was a private table, so it was only 2+2ers. The game was loose and very aggressive, but it was also only 3-6 handed, so that's too be expected. The people playing there were playing looser and more aggressive than their typical 6 max game, I suspect, however. We were showing hands, so we knew how each other were playing. Everyone seemed to be playing their A+ game, but I did catch a couple of ill advised bluffs from both JaxUp and Bottomset. Bottomset has been very tricky, as usual. Slamhound has been sucking out on Pedro and Bottomset, but he's been folding to me. I've been running quite hot, and Pedro has as well, but I haven't gotten into many hands with him. Pax, however, just sat down, and he's my opponent for this hand. This is I think in his first orbit at the table, but I expect nothing but the best from him.

In these sorts of situations, it's very easy to get bogged down in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th+ level thinking. For this hand, I'm less interested in what actions you decide to take, and more what thoughts are going through your head as the hand progresses. The hand:

I open-raise 99 in MP after JaxUP folds. Bottomset and Pedro fold. Pax 3bets me from the SB and Slamhound folds his BB. I call, and it's HU to the flop.

Flop comes 722r. Pax bets into me.

What range of hands do you put him on? What range of hands do you think he puts me on? What's my plan for this and subsequent streets?

[hemstock]

Any Ace with good kicker, KQs-KJs and of course a pocket pair.
I would raise and at least call down since Pax would propably cap with K high (at least against me /images/graemlins/crazy.gif )

[Kumubou]

If this was me versus Paxo, I would be looking to raise with the intention of capping his Ace-whatever while typing in derogatory Japanese into chat.

I don't know why, but right now I am thinking call now and raise the turn? The flop bet means very little, as he 3-bet pre-flop and it's highly unlikely the board hit either of you. Let him 'value bet' his AK or whatever a little while longer. Of course, you are going to hate life if an ace falls on the turn...

Just from the PF 3-bet, I put him on AA-88, AKs-ATs, AK-AJ, KQs-KJs, KQ. Of course there is some chance that he is doing this with 52o or 72s (uh-oh).

-K

[tiltaholic]

since we're assuming normal "A games", i'd call the flop and raise any low turn card (maybe any turn card). i bet the turn if he checks and i see showdown if he 3-bets the turn.

we can put him on any hand with which he might defend his blinds, though he may have a better hand than an average "blind defense" hand since you are opening from MP.

he likely can put you on any hand with 2 high cards, a medium to strong king or ace, or any pair.

[FlopMe]

You didn't cap so he's not putting you on AA-TT or AK. So that leaves, AT-AQ and 77-99 as possiblilites. He 3-bet so he could have AQ-AK, AA-TT. If it's AK he knows he's ahead of everything but 77-99. AA-TT he's way ahead of everything but 77. AQ he's got you dominated, tied, or beat by 77-99. I think I smooth call the flop and raise a non-scary turn but fold to a 3-bet.

[kapw7]

First off all, I would cap this PF. We have a strong hand and position heads-up.

I don't know how Pax plays a 2p2 table but generally his SB raise shows a good hand esp. since it is his first orbit. His bet on the ragged board probably means that he is ready to 3-bet otherwise he would check-raise. So I suspect a big PP here. But this doesn't mean that you shouldn't raise the flop and go to SD.

[cold_cash]

He's probably not going to fold overcards prior to the river, and might even raise with them.

He's also probably not folding a pair either, whether it's better or worse than yours.

If you raise the flop and get 3-bet you won't really have gained much information about his range.

I would call the flop and probably raise the turn if a good card comes off.

If the game, or your opponent, was so spazzy that he's 3-betting the turn with overcards or a worse pair I would just call him all the way down.

[MrWookie47]

If my opponent was so spazzy as to be 3betting overcards, I think I'd want to put in a value raise in there before calling him down, no?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
If my opponent was so spazzy as to be 3betting overcards, I think I'd want to put in a value raise in there before calling him down, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Heck yeah, I raise the flop, call a 3-bet and then raise the turn and take a free showdown. I think there's a very good chance he 3-bets you with overs on the flop and calls the turn raise hoping to improve.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Nope, not from the Omaha table. There was a small LHE game going at the same time. It was a private table, so it was only 2+2ers. The game was loose and very aggressive, but it was also only 3-6 handed, so that's too be expected. The people playing there were playing looser and more aggressive than their typical 6 max game, I suspect, however. We were showing hands, so we knew how each other were playing. Everyone seemed to be playing their A+ game, but I did catch a couple of ill advised bluffs from both JaxUp and Bottomset. Bottomset has been very tricky, as usual. Slamhound has been sucking out on Pedro and Bottomset, but he's been folding to me. I've been running quite hot, and Pedro has as well, but I haven't gotten into many hands with him. Pax, however, just sat down, and he's my opponent for this hand. This is I think in his first orbit at the table, but I expect nothing but the best from him.

In these sorts of situations, it's very easy to get bogged down in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th+ level thinking. For this hand, I'm less interested in what actions you decide to take, and more what thoughts are going through your head as the hand progresses. The hand:

I open-raise 99 in MP after JaxUP folds. Bottomset and Pedro fold. Pax 3bets me from the SB and Slamhound folds his BB. I call, and it's HU to the flop.

Flop comes 722r. Pax bets into me.

What range of hands do you put him on? What range of hands do you think he puts me on? What's my plan for this and subsequent streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

You should have capped preflop.

His range is pretty huge here if he's not sticking to the full ring limitations (I assume not since it's SH).

A7o+, A2s+, any PP, KQ, maybe JTs/T9s if he's getting tricky (esp. at 2+2 tables)

[MrWookie47]

I'll offer some more thoughts on my play at the end. For now, I'll just post the next chunk of action.

I raised. Pax called.

Turn was a thrid deuce.

Pax check/raises me.

What's his range? What does he think my range is, and what's the plan?

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
If my opponent was so spazzy as to be 3betting overcards, I think I'd want to put in a value raise in there before calling him down, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if he 3-bets the turn and you raise again after that you're the spazzy one. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll offer some more thoughts on my play at the end. For now, I'll just post the next chunk of action.

I raised. Pax called.

Turn was a thrid deuce.

Pax check/raises me.

What's his range? What does he think my range is, and what's the plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

A7, AK/AQ, any PP. I'm sure both of you each other has not hit this board.

I would 3bet here, FWIW.

[aces_dad]

The c/r turn seems to mean he thinks the board has completely missed you, or else after getting raised on the flop he'd attempt to bet/3bet the turn. He's putting you on UI overs / broadway now.

The no cap pf may be one factor which helps him think he's ahead along with no broadway boards yet, and he's not going into calldown mode yet. He could have a good A or A7 or any PP.

I three bet this as the hands your behind (the premium PP's unless he's being tricky with them) would have 3bet the flop or bet/3bet the turn not c/r the turn. And you're ahead of a large range of hands he could hold as well. If the turn is capped then I just c/c river.

[kapw7]

It's clear now that he has a PP. You are more times behind than ahead with 99 so you can calldown and prey

(He didn't have 72 did he?)

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
It's clear now that he has a PP. You are more times behind than ahead with 99 so you can calldown and prey

(He didn't have 72 did he?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how much SH he plays, but if Pax has a decent amount of experience, esp against 2+2ers, I think both wookie and Pax are capable of value raising AK on this type of board SH.

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
You didn't cap so he's not putting you on AA-TT or AK. So that leaves, AT-AQ and 77-99 as possiblilites. He 3-bet so he could have AQ-AK, AA-TT. If it's AK he knows he's ahead of everything but 77-99. AA-TT he's way ahead of everything but 77. AQ he's got you dominated, tied, or beat by 77-99. I think I smooth call the flop and raise a non-scary turn but fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a super, super narrow range of hands.

I'm raising the flop, calling a 3-bet and raising nearly any turn for a free showdown.

[deception5]

I agree - just call down after the turn raise.

Edit: The more I think about it the more I prefer a turn 3-bet and folding to any further aggression. Calling and then having him check the river puts us in a tough spot where we have to choose between checking behind or bet/folding, neither of which is an attractive option.

[MrWookie47]

No, no. I'm not capping a 3bet. I'm saying that if he's putting in 3bets with overcards, then surely I'm ahead often enough to put in a single raise, right, rather than just calling down?

[MrWookie47]

I thought of another question I want to ask you guys to think about. What is Pax's goal with that c/r? Is it strictly value in his mind, or could there be a bluff component? What hands does he think I'm capable of folding here? What would he expect me to call down? What would he expect me to 3bet? How do those hands stack up against his range?

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
No, no. I'm not capping a 3bet. I'm saying that if he's putting in 3bets with overcards, then surely I'm ahead often enough to put in a single raise, right, rather than just calling down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Which street are you talking about?

You mean if you raise the flop and he 3-bets?

My line would be call the flop, raise the turn, call down if he 3-bets.

If I raised the flop and he 3-bet I still wouldn't be able to narrow him down much, and I don't see myself folding anywhere in the near future, which is why I don't like raising the flop.

It's a lot easier for him to 3-bet the flop than it is the turn w/ AK, etc., since he probably thinks he's good a lot of the time when you raise the flop, but when you raise the turn he's going to have to play poker.

If he does 3-bet the turn w/ overcards I think he's spraying.

[MrWookie47]

I think at this point we're arguing past each other with semantics, so we should probably drop it. I was just noting that you had said that if someone was spraying so badly as to be 3betting with UI overcards, your plan would be to call down all the way. I was thinking we should find a raise in there and call down when 3bet if he's spraying that badly. That seems to be what you advocate in your second post. I think I agree with you that I would rather raise the turn than the flop.

[cold_cash]

Okie dokie.

I wasn't trying to be a pain in the ass, I just wasn't clear if we were talking about facing a flop 3-bet or a turn 3-bet.

[Kumubou]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop, calling a 3-bet and raising nearly any turn for a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
I hate this play, especially heads-up -- because it makes no sense whatsoever.

Your 'free' showdown costs you just as much as calling him down does! Plus add in the off chance he checks the river after you call anyway, or the much uglier prospect of getting 3-bet on the turn or stop-and-goed on the river. So raising on the turn for the sake of a 'free' showdown is obscenely atupid.

[ QUOTE ]
What is Pax's goal with that c/r? Is it strictly value in his mind, or could there be a bluff component? What hands does he think I'm capable of folding here? What would he expect me to call down? What would he expect me to 3bet? How do those hands stack up against his range?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, it depends on his actual hand. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

For something like AK it is a goodish semi-bluff, hoping that you would call down with AQ or KQ or the like, thinking that your cards are live while getting 8:1 on a call. Ot he can also hope he can fold out a hand like 99-TT and even if you call, he still has outs. He's either way ahead or drawing live here; it's a bizarro option select

Or he could have a big pair and do this purely for value. It just sucks for you because your hand is on the lower end of all this.

-K

[MrWookie47]

How often can he actually expect me to fold 88-TT here? Is there anyone who's advocating that I fold?

[MrWookie47]

I'm going to fan the flames a bit. I'm getting roughly 9:2 on calling down. I think I should fold this turn against an expert player.

[kapw7]

You are most likely behind but 9:2 (or less-sometimes he checks the river) are excellent odds to call down with your 99. So did you change your mind after this hand?

[Paxosmotic]

This was a very well played hand from both angles, I felt. Glad to see it stuck out in your mind.

[MrWookie47]

I called down in this hand, but I think it was wrong. I think it may even be a larger that 1 BB mistake. Here's why I think that way.

On page 239 of TOP, Sklansky writes, "When an opponent bets in a situation where he is sure you're going to call, he is not bluffing." Pax, in this situation, knew I was going to call him down. 2+2ers are incapable of folding any pair here against an aggressive player who "might be trying to fold them." They'll even call down with respectable A's. They might fold KQ or AT, but AK is probably getting shown down, certainly A7 and 99. If he had AK, he should be thinking about getting to showdown rather than trying to fold me. The only hands I'll fold are the ones that are drawing to 3 outs. A check/raise is very -EV for AK in this spot. What hands is it +EV for? Well, it's +EV for hands that are a favorite to win against my range given that I call. Pax could have me nailed down pretty tightly to 66-TT, A7 or AQ at this point, maybe AKo if I'm a wimp. Just about anything else is capping preflop or isn't raising and betting that flop. I'm certainly not calling with anything worse than those. So, what does Pax have? TT-AA, obviously. There is certainly a chance he's making a mistake, but 1 time in 4.5? Unlikely. He both has to have AK/AQ at the expense of AA-TT AND be playing them badly. I was destined by the cards to lose money on this hand, but I lost almost 2 BB more than I needed to (almost 2, because there's a chance he's playing badly).

[Paxosmotic]

After this analysis, is there anyone left on the forum needing convincing of how awesome Matt is at poker? The guy is spot on, both on his read of me and of the situation.

[MrWookie47]

Hey, I still called you down at the time. I can make no claims to greatness.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
I can make no claims to greatness.

[/ QUOTE ]
You must be leaving out last night then, Mr Man.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
There is certainly a chance he's making a mistake, but 1 time in 4.5? Unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I put him on a possible big PP from the flop. Obviously you know your opponent better but I think 1 in 4.5 is very realistic. He can play (correctly) 88 or 66 like that or even AK (a few posters here suggested that they would play AK like that).