Value bet river with AA? Party 15/30 [Archive]

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veganmav

11-01-2005, 01:03 PM

MP1 is 53/8/1.1
BB is 39/12/0.8
(another great party 15/30 game /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I sat one round ago.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero..?

So everything seems standard to me until the river.
I think that BB could definately have somethting dumb like K7-KJ and be afraid of his kicker. A king seems unlikely for MP1, he probably would have played AK and KQ differently. I don't know if he's raising KJ from there preflop, and even if so, It seems like he would have showed some agression somewhere postflop.
Unlikely but still possible, there is a chance that someone either has a baby flush or is slowplaying a flush, but I'm not really worrying about it at this point.
And what are they paying off with if I am ahead?
Maybe someting like JJ or AQ but still..

So, check or bet this river? and how close do you think it is?

And if I bet, what do I do if I get check raised?

DcifrThs

11-01-2005, 01:08 PM

imo this is an easy bet fold to a c'r

Barron

DeeJ

11-01-2005, 01:14 PM

very tempting to chicken out here as you have the chance. But you could easily be up against two busted flush draws or two busted straight draws or silly people playing Qx or even two pair Q8 (ha!). So yeah, bet and fold to a check-raise.

flawless_victory

11-01-2005, 02:27 PM

i dont see how you could check here... you basically have the nuts.

11-01-2005, 02:29 PM

wow...i would chicken out...but bet/fold to c'r sounds much better.

kidcolin

11-01-2005, 02:52 PM

Being against busted draws is no reason to bet.

I vote bet/fold, but for different reasons. You get calls from a lot of pocket pairs, AQ, QJ, etc.

11-01-2005, 02:54 PM

bet/fold is a good line

youre gonna get someone with AQ calling, possibly someone with the ace of diamonds went to the river...

PokerCad

11-01-2005, 06:07 PM

I am sure there is a mathamatical answer, there always is, but if your hand is not strong enough to pay to a river raise isn't check call better for this hand? is there really much value to betting on the small group of hand that will pay you off that you beat? Isn't this one of those instances where TOP recomends checking? enlighten this newbie through my confusion /images/graemlins/confused.gif

wheeler

11-01-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is not strong enough to pay to a river raise isn't check call better for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Many of us find it hard to check/call when closing the action.

SmileyEH

11-01-2005, 06:52 PM

With such high vpip's their agg. isnt actually low. Looks like an easy bet/call to me.

-SmileyEH

veganmav

11-02-2005, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is not strong enough to pay to a river raise isn't check call better for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Many of us find it hard to check/call when closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I have never once been able to succesfuly pull off that move, and I have quite a few hands under my belt.

Glenn K

11-02-2005, 11:05 AM

As I see it, you should check. The only pockets that will continue playing this hand are done flushes and K-trips. And they will check-raise. Probably no risk that a full house shows. Really bad play by him if that is the case. At least I would fold hands like AQ in this situation. AQ is good enough to call with until the river-K shows. But then it is a obvious fold. Lower pocket pairs should have folded at least after turn.

veganmav

11-02-2005, 11:23 AM

Glenn K

11-02-2005, 11:36 AM

True.

But since there are 2 K's I assume that you will not get called by hands that is not Kx, AA or a made flush. A bet here is for me money in the lake. You will not get called by a lesser hand.

If I understand correct you have just sat down and do not have a read on your opponents, so you cannot be sure of anything. As you write yourself that you could very well be up against KJ-K7. And what to do with a cr? You are obviously beaten if you get to that stage.

veganmav

11-02-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
True.

But since there are 2 K's I assume that you will not get called by hands that is not Kx, AA or a made flush. A bet here is for me money in the lake. You will not get called by a lesser hand.

If I understand correct you have just sat down and do not have a read on your opponents, so you cannot be sure of anything. As you write yourself that you could very well be up against KJ-K7. And what to do with a cr? You are obviously beaten if you get to that stage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I don't think anything is holding them back from calling with a queen, or pocket pair like JJ or TT.

And if I am obviously beaten at that stage when I get check-raised, then I would obviously fold at that stage, when I am beaten.

TwoNiner

11-02-2005, 02:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold hands like AQ in this situation. AQ is good enough to call with until the river-K shows. But then it is a obvious fold. Lower pocket pairs should have folded at least after turn.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You have to remember these guys aren't you, and they don't play like you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's further behind trip kings than a pair of kings? That K is the best card in the deck for someone callind down with AQ, no?

Victor

11-02-2005, 02:38 PM

the k pairing makes it even more enticing for lower pairs (esp aq) to call down.