New game on British Telly - Deal or No Deal

[StuR]

There's this new game on telly called Deal or No Deal and I think it would be a very easy game to play mathematically.

Here's a link to the game description.

Deal or No Deal (http://www.channel4.com/4money/ontv/deal_or_no_deal/rules.html)

Surely its just an EV game? Yesterday a women was left with two boxes - her's and another contestant's. There were two sums of money that could be in her box - £10 and £35,000. The banker offered her $14,000 for her box. I concluded she shouldn't make the deal since keeping her box would be worth (1/2)*10 + (1/2)*35000 = £17,505.

However, this is the correct answer in the long run. How would you include the fact that you only get one shot? Obviously it means you would accept less but how much? Would it be a function of your "gambling instinct"?

Dunno if this type of game is often discussed just thought it might generate a little discussion.

Thanks

StuR

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
However, this is the correct answer in the long run. How would you include the fact that you only get one shot?

[/ QUOTE ]
EV makes sense even when there is only one trial.

The question is how risk-averse the contestant is. The value of money won on the show may not be linear to the contestant, for example.

[ThinkQuick]

see pzhon.

there will be a point for each person where it isn't (utility-wise) worth the 50% chance of converting the cash offering to 35/14 of the cash offering.

hmmm........
the important thing is realizing that the happiness a cash prize brings a given person is not linearly related to the amount of that prize. It would be legitimately "worth it" for any person to take the bank offer if it was big enough.

I certainly have my breaking point...
assuming the leser box still contains 10 bucks and they still offer you 80% of your EV, I'd probably take the cash offer around the 400K mark (when the large prize is 1million)

[Tater10]

uh oh... this looks like a monty hall problem. I dont watch the show, and I'm not 100% clear how the game works from reading the website, but if the game show 'forces' boxes, i'd take EV of whatever it was before they opened the first box (IOW, if the average box contained 1,800, i'd take 1,800.)

[Monty Hall - 3 doors, 1 has a car, 2 have a goat. You pick door 2, Monty is forced to show you a goat behind door #1. The probability of door 3 having the car is 2/3]

[ThinkQuick]

this may look to you like a monty hall problem, which of course has appeared here numerous times, but it is not similar.

[Artsemis]

I'd relate this to sitting at a table you dont have a big enough bankroll for. The offer for your box is your bankroll... or you can take a chance and try to win more money, but you may go broke.

The general consensus is dont play at the table unless your bankroll is large enough.

In other words I would take the offer unless I could play this 'game' many times. (representing a larger bankroll)

Wikipedia says this is a Monty Hall problem, and whilst of course I realise that it's easy for Wikiedia to be wrong, I was wandering if anyone can explain why it is or isn't a MH.

The reason I think it is not a MH is that the boxes are revealed at random, as opposed to the MH where the doors are not.

Anyone care to explain this for me?

Tyvm.

[TomCollins]

Show me the link to wikipedia and I'll correct it. If its the gameshow Deal or No Deal that was on in Australia, it has nothing to do with Monty Hall. You randomly select a box, and it removes the value. You can take a slightly -EV chance on what is left if you want. Nothing to do with switching at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deal_Or_No_Deal

Since the page has changed, I assume you already got there. If so, you've done a nice write up. Thanks.