big bluff in super

[schwza]

we're itm in last night's super (150+12). there are ~90 left out of 1175 (140 pay). average is ~13k and i am one of the top couple stacks. this is villain's first hand at the table, but i have the following notes on him from an earlier table: "fishy D 25/50. loose preflop." his PT stats are 19/13 in 220 hands. sorry, no bisonbison.

i have been running over the table with no resistance whatsoever since somewhat before the bubble, but villain doesn't know that.

***** Hand History for Game 2962605466 *****
1000/2000 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 17036052)
e Nov 01 00:52:41 EST 2005
Table Super Monday(495808) Table 6 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Parrott33 (21592)
Seat 2: choose_life (11576)
Seat 4: danielsbry (27756)
Seat 5: theeverest (15193)
Seat 6: MaddCapper (29110)
Seat 7: Hi3pnotic (25823)
Seat 8: DA_PP_POLICE (8537)
Seat 9: HERO (37419)
choose_life posts small blind (500)
danielsbry posts big blind (1000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Tc, Kc ]
theeverest folds.
MaddCapper folds.
Hi3pnotic folds.
DA_PP_POLICE folds.
HERO raises (2300) to 2300
Parrott33 folds.
choose_life folds.
danielsbry calls (1300)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ks, 6s, Ts ] (pot 5.1k)
danielsbry bets (2300)
HERO raises (10000) to 10000
danielsbry calls (7700)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Js ] (pot 25.1k)
danielsbry checks.
HERO checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 4s ] (pot 25.1k, villain has 15.4k)
danielsbry checks.
HERO bets (25119)
HERO is all-In.

[rockythecat99]

I like it. If he doesn't have the Ace he is folding here a good percentage of the time. The way you played it you certainly represented the ace. I like. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[zambonidrivr]

I think a preflop shove here is better. You have a ton of FE and they would have a very tight range to make this call. Your goal this this crap hand is to collect blinds only right? Instead you basically pot commited yourself with trash, and could have busted when villian showed strength. Thats just me. NH, you picked up quite a few chips here.

J

[schwza]

what? shove pre-flop with an effective stack of 27x?

[Rizen]

I think your river bluff is fine (although I think you may find out you were actually ahead on this river anyways). I'm curious though, why the check on the turn? I would have a very hard time giving a free card here. I'd like to hear your line of thought.

-Rizen

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your river bluff is fine (although I think you may find out you were actually ahead on this river anyways). I'm curious though, why the check on the turn? I would have a very hard time giving a free card here. I'd like to hear your line of thought.

-Rizen

[/ QUOTE ]

is this give-schwza-incoherent-advice-day?

i'm playing the board on the river.

[Exitonly]

any bet on the turn would have to be all-in, and what better hands fold, or what worse hands call?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
any bet on the turn would have to be all-in, and what better hands fold, or what worse hands call?

[/ QUOTE ]

sets and small flushes may fold the turn.

[zambonidrivr]

Alright, I'm giong to ask a question that I know I'm going to get flammed for. But please realize, I'm being honest here.

Is this an example of a hand where:
1. You have outplayed someone after the flop
2. A textbook move from a donkey that makes winning players more profitable.

And don't give me crap like I am clueless. I won the Guarenteed $40K last week. Yes, I had the luckbox on but never would I make a play like this sacrifising any FE i had left in a tourney.

Also, if this is a common move, where can I read more on how to do this sort of thing. I have read most of the books out there, HOH vol 1&2 are my fav. I just don't recall learning anything like this.

NH though, I am glad it worked out for you.

[KneeCo]

His flop action actually makes it seem like he has a draw. but if he had a /images/graemlins/spade.gif strong enough to call the bluff I would assume he would have lead out at the river after the check/check turn, so I like the move here.

Let's say you had the same stack you do here, but didn't have your opponent covered, do you make the same move, check it down, or try for a Post-Oak bluff?

[stevepa]

I really like the river bluff. I think if your opponent had the ace of spades (or any decent spade) he would've bet the river, hoping you call because there's a flush on the board. I also think your bet represents the ace pretty well. Flop raise with the big draw, check behind to keep him around and then big overbet on the river. I think he folds here the vast majority of the time.

Steve

[bruce]

Good post.

Firstly, only an idiot would push with a stack this large.
Why risk your entire stack if the blinds wake up with a hand. I could make an argument for a larger BTF raise, but
I think we're splitting hairs.

If the blind were a thinking player he would call your river push. The blind made a half pot bet on the flop. If
you had a flush draw with a dry Ace most players would not make a big raise on the flop. The only scenario where you would make this play is if you have the Ace of spades with top pair and I think most players with a monster hand like this headsup would try to milk the pot and not make a big raise on the flop.

This is no limit, whether you make your move on the turn or river, I don't think it makes any difference. Given that the villian has now checked the turn and river and he doesn't appear by your notes to be a thinking player a push on the river has a high likelyhood or succeeding.

Bruce

[schwza]

these aren't exactly the same b/c i am guaranteed to get no more than a chop in a SD where the players in these hands might be getting the whole thing if they get to showdown and misread villains' hands.

betting (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=plnlpoker&Number=3815042& Searchpage=1&Main=3815042&Words=%2Bchop+%2Bblock+-re&topic=&Search=true#Post3815042)

from the other side (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=3822742&an=0&page=0#Post 3822742)


[ QUOTE ]
And don't give me crap like I am clueless. I won the Guarenteed $40K last week. Yes, I had the luckbox on but never would I make a play like this sacrifising any FE i had left in a tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, are you trolling? first you say to open push for 27x and now you're saying that you need to not risk letting your stack dip?

[Sam T.]

This is really nice.

What is your plan if he leads the turn or the river?

I like the check behind on the turn - no reason to give him the chance to CR if he hit his hand, and the open check on the river should tell you your bet is not going to be called. (Unless he is the world's biggest calling station.)

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post.

Firstly, only an idiot would push with a stack this large.
Why risk your entire stack if the blinds wake up with a hand. I could make an argument for a larger BTF raise, but
I think we're splitting hairs.

If the blind were a thinking player he would call your river push. The blind made a half pot bet on the flop. If
you had a flush draw with a dry Ace most players would not make a big raise on the flop. The only scenario where you would make this play is if you have the Ace of spades with top pair and I think most players with a monster hand like this headsup would try to milk the pot and not make a big raise on the flop.

This is no limit, whether you make your move on the turn or river, I don't think it makes any difference. Given that the villian has now checked the turn and river and he doesn't appear by your notes to be a thinking player a push on the river has a high likelyhood or succeeding.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with much of this. I would raise the flop here with a ton of hands, the naked ace of spades included. Against most players, a flop raise has huge fold equity. I think Schwza played this hand EXACTLY how I would play the ace of spades, regardless of what my other card was. The check-behind on the turn would be to induce a river bet and then the river push because he's probably either folding regardless of what you bet or calling regardless of what you bet (i.e. he has a reasonable spade or he doesn't).
For what it's worth, I think Schwza would've gotten me to fold just about everything except the ace of spades and probably the queen of spades.

Steve

[zambonidrivr]

What is trolling?
Thanks for the links.

[EverettKings]

I would have checked behind.

When he calls your turn raise, his range actually gets quite limited. I think a two pair or set pushes there, as does a flopped flush. So he can have a one pair hand with no spade, which will most definitely be Kx (where x is probably mediumish, like 7-J). His other real options are a medium or top pair with a spade, the lone As, or QsJx. So all of those medium kings where the x is a spade, plus stuff like Tx9s.

So he checks the turn and river. QsJx is out the window, as is the As, since he'd have bet for sure. So you're looking at a decent nonspade king (which you can bluff) or a king or ten with the 6s-9s. So how do you know if it's a spade hand or a nonspade hand? Calling speed on the flop. If he called your bet with reasonable haste (i.e. no significant hesitation), he likely has a spade to go with his hand. If he didn't, he'd be much more hesitant to call. This is a very nonscientific read that works against undeveloped players (like this guy).

I'm guessing that he called your flop bet at a reasonable rate (only a few seconds pause), so he's much more likely to have a spade in his hand. I'd say he has a spade 75% of the time there, so I check behind. But what percent sure do you need to be to check behind?

But this read that you may or may not be buying might not even be necessary. Let's do some math.

Pot is 25k, he has 15k.

Case 1, neither of you has a spade (Let's say this happens X percent of the time, I think it's about 25%)
Option A- You check, you get 12.5k (weighted X%, so 12.5X).
Option B- You push, you get 25k (weighted X%, so 25X).

Case 2, he has a mediumish spade ((1-X) percent of the time, I think it's about 75%)
Option A- You check, you get 0.
Option B- You push, you lose 15k (weighted (1-X)%, so -15(1-X)).

I used X so we can figure out what X has to be for a push to be profitable.

So with line A, your EV is 12.5*X
With line B, your EV is 25*X-15*(1-X)
Equating the two, we get
12.5X = 25X - 15 + 15X
12.5X + 15 = 40X
27.5X = 15
X = 15/27.5 = 6/11 = 55%

So he has to have no spade over 55% of the time for a push to be profitable. In other words, he has to have a spade less than 45% of the time.

So if you think he has a spade less than 45% of the time, push. Even if you throwing my "timing" read crap out the window, I don't like the odds there (based on no other information, I bet he has a spade 60% of the time). And based on my assumption that he called your flop bet without significant hesitation, I think he has a spade a good bit more than that (like, 75-80% of the time). My read is K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (yeah, I named the King's too).

Everett

PS I absolutely check the turn here. If he has a good spade you expect to hear from him so you can give yourself a chance to get away. If the river were a blank and he still checked, you'd be quite happy. But if he led the river (blank or no blank), you could safely fold.

[zambonidrivr]

These are cash game posts. I don't believe they apply as much to tournament play. Yes, pot odds and size of bets... I get that. I looked at this hand and thought the following. You have 27K, BB is $1,000. Picking up the blinds would increase your stack to $28K, action has been folded to you with K10. 1.) Raising and picking up the blinds does not changed the material value of your stack, 2.) There is a chance to go broke on any given hand.

My comment to shove, was simply supporting your effort to pick up the blinds at the smallest risk. You would be pushing into a similair stack, who's calling range would need to be extremely tight to call. While shoving is absurd, you will probably pick up the blinds this time around,,, and next time you do this, he's calling.... but that time you'll be holding aces /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[KneeCo]

Everett, in describing the frequency of the villain holding a spade, you seem to be assuming that he will call with any spade. I don't think this is the case.

[schwza]

that's a nice post. you're ignoring the fact that he may fold a spade though.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
that's a nice post. you're ignoring the fact that he may fold a spade though.

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed my read. I don't think it's possible for him to have a spade here that he will fold. Kx2s will have a harder time calling the flop than Kx8x, so I kinda ignored it.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Everett, in describing the frequency of the villain holding a spade, you seem to be assuming that he will call with any spade. I don't think this is the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming that he will call with any spade that he could have at this point. As per my response to the OP, the chance of him getting here with the 3s in his hand is negligible.

[Melchiades]

I wouldn't even consider calling this with 8s. The way hero played this it is highely likely he has As.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
that's a nice post. you're ignoring the fact that he may fold a spade though.

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed my read. I don't think it's possible for him to have a spade here that he will fold. Kx2s will have a harder time calling the flop than Kx8x, so I kinda ignored it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think it's too unlikely for him to call the flop with 7x7s or Kx7s and then chicken out at the end. maybe bigger spades too. he may have slowplayed himself into some pain with 56s. remember he's not very good.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
remember he's not very good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. And not very good people tend to make calls like this. This guy hadn't shown any weak/tight tendencies so I haven't got the confidence that he can get away from his spade here.

I've blown many a stack expecting people like him to make folds like this. Be careful.

[Rizen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think your river bluff is fine (although I think you may find out you were actually ahead on this river anyways). I'm curious though, why the check on the turn? I would have a very hard time giving a free card here. I'd like to hear your line of thought.

-Rizen

[/ QUOTE ]

is this give-schwza-incoherent-advice-day?

i'm playing the board on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I totally misread. My bad, I thought the board came with two of a suit, not three. This is probably the part of my response where I'm supposed to bitch about not running it through the hand converter or something, but I'll look more closely next time /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Rizen

[MLG]

usually when you bluff its because its the only way you can win the pot. So, if you bet say 1/2 pot on the river it only has to work 1/3 the time to be a break even play. Here though, given that when you check there is a decent chance you win half the pot, bluffing is worth less. If I'm gonna run a big bluff its going to be because there's a lot big upside to bluffing. With half the pot quite possibly yours it dramatically reduces the upside. I check and hope.

[schwza]

everettkings was, unfortunately, right on. villain calls with Kx9s and i feel like an idiot.

at the time, my thinking was that villain almost certainly did not have the A and probably did not have the Q as he would have bet the river. that left pretty few playable spades, donk or no donk.

thanks all for responding.

[bruce]

If I only had a dry Ace of spades I think I would rather take a cheap card on the flop than go to war. The villian has only bet half the pot. I'm getting great odds to hit my flush. Why go to war? You may have some fold equity, but this is a highly coordinated board. I prefer the path of least resistance in this specific situation. I don't see him folding a high enough percent of time with this board and with him leading out.

Bruce

[schwza]

first, assume he has Kx. what factors change the odds he has a spade?

the baseline is 25%.

- but he can’t have any of the Js, Ts, 6s, 4s, so it goes down quite a bit (KJ and KT are most likely Kx D hands besides KQ). less likely.

- the Ks is on the board. that means that Kx suited does not have a spade. villain is more likely to blind D with a suited K than an offsuit K. less likely.

- he led out. not sure if this makes it more or less likely he has a spade. if he had one, he might be less worried about a free card. not clear.

- he called the flop raise. i doubt he folds any Kx hand on the flop. he may very occasionally. i don’t know if a hand like Kx9s or Kx9x is likely to go to war on the flop. you could say Kx9x wants a safe turn, or you could say that Kx9x needs to deny free cards. not clear.

- he checked the turn. i think all hands check the turn. no info.

- he checked the river. AsKx is out the window. KxQs just got significantly less likely.

- his kicker is big enough to call the raise. his vpip/pfr is 19/13 over 200+ hands and not 40/13, so i’d be very surprised if he D’ed a hand like K7o against a big stack. K8o is also very unlikely, and i would also throw K9o out except that i have a note that he made an earlier fishy D.

so let’s review the kickers that go with villain’s K. i’d say any of the 3 offsuit Q’s are significantly more likely than the Qs. KQ ~= 15% spade. any of the non-spade 9’s are more likely than the 9s because K9o may fold pre-flop and K9s probably won’t. either hand is equally likely to get to the river this way. K9 ~= 20% spade. smaller kickers probably do not call pre-flop unless they are suited, which makes them much more likely to be non-spades than spades. K8- ~= 10% spade. there are also all of the KJ/KT hands that can be out there, but have no spade counterpart. KJ/KT = 0% spade.

the %’s are obviously just estimates, but i’d say that all told the odds that if he has Kx the kicker is a spade is about 15%, tops.

hands besides Kx are a little trickier. something like 77 is much more likely to contain a spade than not.

Tx hands are also trickier. i don’t feel like turning this into a book right now, but suffice it say that unless you think villain calls preflop with hands like T7o and T8o, or checks the river with AsTx or QsTx, the odds that a T with a spade kicker gets to the river are very low.

Kx is the most likely hand (15% spades). Tx is not very likely at all to get here, and not very likely to have a spade anyway. hands like 77 aren't too likely (but will almost always have a spade if they get to the river). i don't know where this lands us in terms of percentage - i'd guess about 20% but it could be somewhat higher or lower.

also there's a huge bonus to folding out a hand like 7c7s or even Kc9s. all we know about the villain is that he's loose pre-flop and made a fishy blind D in level 4. i would definitely toss the 7s here, and maybe the 9s also.

the more i think about it, the more i think that the biggest concern by far is that villain traps with the As or Qs twice.

[ QUOTE ]
If he called your bet with reasonable haste (i.e. no significant hesitation), he likely has a spade to go with his hand. If he didn't, he'd be much more hesitant to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dunno, could be. i'm not very big into timing tells, but this could be legit.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that he called your flop bet at a reasonable rate (only a few seconds pause), so he's much more likely to have a spade in his hand. I'd say he has a spade 75% of the time there, so I check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't mean to be rude, but that's a bunch of crap. you could just as easily assume he took a long time. you obviously think he has a spade, so you assume he acted quickly, and use that to support the conclusion he has a spade. blech.


[ QUOTE ]
(based on no other information, I bet he has a spade 60% of the time)

[/ QUOTE ]

want to support that? if he's not trapping, i think it's more like 20%. (yes, i know that's a big if, but it's not even something that you mention as possible, so i'm guessing that's not where you're getting you're big number from).

there's no way a thinking player would call this push with no spade. No way.