2:1 Calling With Any 2 - Expanded

[se2schul]

Often in late game play, you get into situation when the blinds are so big compared to people's stacks that you get the opportunity to call a single all-in getting better than 2:1. The accepted rule is that you should call here with any 2 cards IF calling is less than 1/3 of your stack. The reason is that a random hand usually wins 33% of the time. Of course if you suspect the villain doesn't have just any 2 cards, you may want to tighten up a little.

The recent discussion on coinflips has got me thinking about this. If you sneak a peak at your opponents cards and see that you are 47% to win against his hand, would it be correct to call if you are getting better than 1:1 from the pot for less than 1/2 your stack.

Here's an example:

UTG T600
UTG+1 T800
Button T800
SB T800
BB (hero) T5000

BB is T100

You have A9
Blinds are posted and it's folded to the SB.
SB pushes and shows you 33.

You are a slight dog to call, but you are getting slightly better than 1:1 and it is much less than 1/2 your stack. Do you call this? Do you consider this to be a similar situation to calling with any 2 when getting 2:1?

[tigerite]

Like everything else.. it depends on ICM

[zambonidrivr]

i am calling here with A9 no problem... as i know I am pushing any to if i am sb there.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
i am calling here with A9 no problem... as i know I am pushing any to if i am sb there.

[/ QUOTE ]

The SB is not pushing any 2. You have cheated and peeked at his cards. He has 33. You are a slight dog getting better than 1:1 on your call for much less than half your stack.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
Like everything else.. it depends on ICM

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Why wouldn't you just make a pot odds call when there is no risk of ruin?

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Why wouldn't you just make a pot odds call when there is no risk of ruin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you use pot odds when you have a tournament equity model available?

Anyway, it doesn't matter as the two are going to produce almost identical results in this instance. Running the numbers, the ICM wants you to be 44.62% to win to break even. Since A9o is 46.427% against 33, this is a call.

Using pot odds gives you the answer of winning 43.75% of the time to break even on a call. As ever, the ICM advises you to be tighter on your calling standards, but the difference is very small.

EDIT: I checked to see what the ICM says would happen if you called with a hand that's break even according to pot odds (i.e. wins 43.75% of the time). ICM says this call loses 0.094375% of the prize pool. If you did it at a $11, you could expect on average to lose nine cents. In other words, go ahead and use pot odds in this kind of situation, but make sure you understand at what point the ICM advice will start to diverge significantly.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you use pot odds when you have a tournament equity model available?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even if I'm drunk, stoned, or just got hit in the head with a hammer, I'll still be able to workout pot odds on the fly during a hand. I can't do that with ICM when I'm sober and healthy. All I can do with ICM is look at tournament summaries see if I made the right call during the tournament and hope that I recognize a similar situation in a future tournament.

Good post Chris. I'm going to change the stack sizes around and see when ICM says it isn't a call but pot odds says it still is.

[Nicholasp27]

i'd call here...if he doubles up, u can steal most of it back with agression because he doesn't wanna go out in 4th when he has good shot at 2nd...if u win, it's the bubble and u have 3 even stacks that are folding, folding, folding to ur push, push, push