JJ and overcard in big pot

[Aaron_]

MP2 is 40%VPIP and 1.0 PFAF after 30 hands - no good reads. Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

Cryptologic 0.25/0.50 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.60 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.30 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (8.30 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.30 BB.

Probably weak tight, but i'd fold it.
1) There are no draws he could be betting
2) Say there was a draw on the board, most wouldn't bet it into a pfr, who's raise will drive out 2, hurting his implied odds.
3) You still have 2 left to act and a Q is about the worst card for you when you've been cold called.
5) The pot isn't too big. You're getting about 4:1 to see a showdown and have little chance of improving.
I suppose there's a slight chance he's betting something like A and a paired X or a mid PP, in which case your raise is necessary to drive out OC's behind you.

[WordWhiz]

Grunching. Looks good to me. You can't just call on the flop--even on a relatively drawless board like this. Must raise to protect hand. If MP3 has the Q, oh well, but he could also be betting a six, a deuce, or a pocket pair.

But you must value-bet the river. No draws came in, and he called you on the turn as well. If you really think he has the queen, you should have folded the flop. If you don't, you're good here 95% of the time and should bet for value.

You think he's calling with less than a pair of Queens 50% of the time? I don't.

[Trix]

this is perfect, the closest street is the river.

[Aaron_]

[ QUOTE ]
You think he's calling with less than a pair of Queens 50% of the time? I don't.

[/ QUOTE ]

The break even point probably isn't 50% given the chances he doesn't have a queen.

Hypothetical:
25% of the time he has the queen, and calls 100% of the time.
75% of the time, he doesn't have the queen, and calls X% of the time.

We only need a call ~33% of the time he has second best for us to break even (if the chances he has a queen are right). I think a fish is calling much more than that, even UI. Plus, there's some fold equity, albeit small, when he does have it. It's close, but I think this is a value bet situation even if the chances he does have a queen are higher.

[MrWookie47]

Almost. It's a value bet if he has a hand you beat 50% of the time GIVEN thant he calls. If he never calls your bet, there's no value in it. If he never calls w/o a hand better than yours, then there's negative value in it, since he'll fold often, but will cost you a bet when he beats you.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's wrong because when an overcard to yours comes on the board and someone bets into the preflop raiser and there are no apparent flush or straight draws, they usually have paired the top card or better and you should usually throw your hand away.

[Aaron_]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost. It's a value bet if he has a hand you beat 50% of the time GIVEN thant he calls. If he never calls your bet, there's no value in it. If he never calls w/o a hand better than yours, then there's negative value in it, since he'll fold often, but will cost you a bet when he beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is what I was saying, only with the chances that he does or doesn't have the queen weighted in. Assuming that he has the queen less than 50% of the time, and he calls 100% of the time when he does, the times he needs to call WITHOUT the queen is LESS than 50% of the time.

(Chance he has Q (-1BB * chance he calls) + (Chance he doesn't have Q (1BB * chance he calls)) = 1

If he has a queen less than 50% of the time, we need him to call fewer times when he doesn't have it to make this a valuable bet.

[Aaron_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's wrong because when an overcard to yours comes on the board and someone bets into the preflop raiser and there are no apparent flush or straight draws, they usually have paired the top card or better and you should usually throw your hand away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that's what I wanted to get into on this post. How much of the time does villain have you beat in this situation (given fishy, somewhat aggressive), and is raising to find out worth it?

Any thoughts?

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is raising the flop right/wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's wrong because when an overcard to yours comes on the board and someone bets into the preflop raiser and there are no apparent flush or straight draws, they usually have paired the top card or better and you should usually throw your hand away.

[/ QUOTE ] How much of the time does villain have you beat in this situation (given fishy, somewhat aggressive), and is raising to find out worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]
Approximately 83.4% of the time, and no. If you raise he puts you on two pair, an overpair or a set and then on the later streets, he calls you down if you bet or bets if you check.

[Aaron_]

It's actually 83.409%, but I'll round for for the sake of simplicity.

Isn't the pot too big to make this laydown every time?

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't the pot too big to make this laydown every time?

[/ QUOTE ]It needs to be more than twice that big if you're drawing to two outs.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Almost. It's a value bet if he has a hand you beat 50% of the time GIVEN thant he calls. If he never calls your bet, there's no value in it. If he never calls w/o a hand better than yours, then there's negative value in it, since he'll fold often, but will cost you a bet when he beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is what I was saying, only with the chances that he does or doesn't have the queen weighted in. Assuming that he has the queen less than 50% of the time, and he calls 100% of the time when he does, the times he needs to call WITHOUT the queen is LESS than 50% of the time.

(Chance he has Q (-1BB * chance he calls) + (Chance he doesn't have Q (1BB * chance he calls)) = 1

If he has a queen less than 50% of the time, we need him to call fewer times when he doesn't have it to make this a valuable bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't thought through your reasoning completely enough to say whether it's right or wrong. However, the fact that I have to think so hard tells me that going with the Sklanksy method which I described is much easier and much more useful at the table. I find it much easier to just estimate the hands he'll call me with than it is to take into account what hands he'll call me with AND the probability he has them.

[Aaron_]

[ QUOTE ]
It needs to be more than twice that big if you're drawing to two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're assuming that we're behind 100% of the time. How about if villain is LAG. With 8SB on the line, how do you play this?

[Aaron_]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it much easier to just estimate the hands he'll call me with than it is to take into account what hands he'll call me with AND the probability he has them.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I'm doing, only on paper /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It seems like the general consensus is that the odds on him having a queen are high enough not to make this value bet clearly valuable. I'll keep checking here.

EDIT: Though, I shouldn't have been in the pot to begin with.

[LoaferGee12]

With such a ragged flop and an especially low 2nd card, I think he's got a queen most of the time here. Not only that but you are in trouble if you get cold-called by one of the guys behind you.

[Aaron_]

[ QUOTE ]
Not only that but you are in trouble if you get cold-called by one of the guys behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point - didn't even think about it.

The idiot turned over 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif if anyone was wondering.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It needs to be more than twice that big if you're drawing to two outs.

[/ QUOTE ]But you're assuming that we're behind 100% of the time. How about if villain is LAG? With 8SB on the line, how do you play this?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Aaron,

Against a relative unknown, with two people still to act behind us, I'd assume we're behind about 80-85% of the time.

With 8SB (actually 9 with the bet) on the line, I'm not sure how often you have to be ahead to make this worthwhile to continue. How do you calculate that? You would have to make some assumptions, like will you get overcalls padding the pot and will you have to call a turn and/or river bet?

I take a stab at some math in a simplified example. Suppose you get no overcalls and you will call a turn bet, but fold to a river bet UI. You will be betting 3 more SB to make 11. You would have to be ahead almost 1 in 5 times.

Lose 3sb x 4 = 12. Win 11sb x 1 = 11.

So if were behind 80% of the time, were ahead 1 in 5 times and this is almost a breakeven call.

Now, if you think MP will not bet out again with less than top pair on the turn if you call the flop, it looks like we can call this almost every time.

Anyone want to add anything to that math?

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
The idiot turned over 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously with this read, we're going to start calling in this situation in the future. If MP2 does this often, we may even want to start raising him on a hand like this to punish him and try to fold those following who may be holding a King or Ace.

Then we're going to start watching MP2 closely. Realize that if we or someone else busts him a couple or three times, he may stop or slow down the donk betting so watch for that.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
If you really think he has the queen, you should have folded the flop. If you don't, you're good here 95% of the time and should bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

In poker, you can't think in terms of one or the other being 100% true. I could be wrong, but I think that's what this analysis is saying to do. Not good.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]

Hypothetical:
25% of the time he has the queen, and calls 100% of the time.
75% of the time, he doesn't have the queen, and calls X% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Way off.

[Pedigree]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find it much easier to just estimate the hands he'll call me with than it is to take into account what hands he'll call me with AND the probability he has them.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I'm doing, only on paper /images/graemlins/smile.gif

It seems like the general consensus is that the odds on him having a queen are high enough not to make this value bet clearly valuable. I'll keep checking here.

EDIT: Though, I shouldn't have been in the pot to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, the odds he has a queen are considerably higher than 25%. I'd even say they are higher than 50% (meaning no percentage of the time opponent calls down with an inferior hand could make it worth it).

Fold the flop and (given the action to that point) check the river.

[littlebu]

Blind response

I think you played it well. I would think if he'd had the Q he'd of raised it after the blank on the turn. I think the only street that is tough to decide on is the river. He could be checking it down with Qjunk sooted and hoping it holds. I think I bet this river most of the time. nh