Halfway home in the NFL - Super Bowl Picks

[Clarkmeister]

Halfway there, week 8 is now complete. Post your playoff picks and superbowl selections.

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: San Diego
Wildcard 1: Denver
Wildcard 2: Jacksonville

Cinci's schedule gets way, way tougher here on out. JVille's is a cakewalk.

AFC Champion: San Diego (Indy the obvious pick, I find their schedule to date suspect with only one real opponent, Jacksonville, and a less than impressive win against that opponent).

NFC East: Giants
NFC North: Bears
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: Seattle
Wildcard 1: Atlanta
Wildcard 2: Washington (road win vs Dallas huge)

NFC Champion:
Atlanta (Lots of legit choices here, but give me the team that plays good D and runs the ball)

Super Bowl winner:

San Diego - Their big weakness is pass D, and Atlanta isn't the right team to exploit that. Indy on the other hand..... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ QUOTE ]
AFC West: San Diego
Wildcard 1: Denver


[/ QUOTE ]

Dont be silly, they cant even beat Philly at home. You know, the team Denver just destroyed.

[NoChance]

I think somehow Dallas gets in. I guess I would make Atlanta a division winner and drop Carolina out.

NFC up for grabs. I will take Dallas or Atlanta vs Indy in the SB but I still think Indy wins the whole thing.

[TheRover]

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AFC West: San Diego
Wildcard 1: Denver


[/ QUOTE ]

Dont be silly, they cant even beat Philly at home. You know, the team Denver just destroyed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was pretty much because of a fluke play and Marty sucking ass, which ought to be enough to keep them from going far in the playoffs.

Clark: Atlanta's defense has been pretty awful this year.

[MCS]

AFC East: New England (lucky their division is weak)
AFC North: Cincinnati (I believe!)
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: Denver
Wildcard 1: San Diego (and they'll be dangerous as hell, but two games back is a lot)
Wildcard 2: Pittsburgh

AFC Champion: Indianapolis

NFC East: New York
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Atlanta (not that good, but easy schedule)
NFC West: Seattle
Wildcard 1: Carolina
Wildcard 2: Philadelphia (I think they can get it together enough to slip in)

NFC Champion: Atlanta (I think NY is better, but they'll likely have home field, plus I cheer for them /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

Super Bowl winner: Indianapolis (I kinda want to pick somebody else, but they're likely to have home field too, and nobody in the NFC is nearly as good.)

I think I just made a lot of BSP picks. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I mostly picked the teams that were leading their divisions, because even a one-game lead is significant with this few games in the NFL season.

[Punker]

AFC East: Miami Dolphins
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Denver Broncos
Wildcard 1: Pittsburgh Steelers
Wildcard 2: SD Chargers

NFC East: NY Giants
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: TB Bucs
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Wildcard 1: Washington Redskins
Wildcard 2: StLouis Rams

NFC Champions: Seattle Seahawks
AFC Champion: Indianapolis Colts

SB Champion: Seattle Seahawks

I provide no justification.

[Clarkmeister]

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AFC West: San Diego
Wildcard 1: Denver


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Dont be silly, they cant even beat Philly at home. You know, the team Denver just destroyed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was pretty much because of a fluke play and Marty sucking ass, which ought to be enough to keep them from going far in the playoffs.



[/ QUOTE ]

Also, it wasn't in SD, it was in Philly off of a Philly bye week, while the Denver won at home.

Atlanta's D has been far from "pretty awful". It's not great, but it's definitely good (note I didn't say "great"), and the best of the NFC teams in playoff contention other than the Bears IMO.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

Superbowl:
Colts v Bears

Colts 10
Bears 135

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Superbowl:
Colts v Bears

Colts 10
Bears 135

[/ QUOTE ]

The Bears will allow 10 points? Almost as shameful as Super Bowl XX.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Atlanta (Lots of legit choices here, but give me the team that plays good D and runs the ball)

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, the only team in the NFC that fits that bill is the Bears.

[Aytumious]

Packers win the SB in a blowout versus someone.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
AFC East: New England (lucky their division is weak)
AFC North: Cincinnati (I believe!)
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: Denver
Wildcard 1: San Diego (and they'll be dangerous as hell, but two games back is a lot)
Wildcard 2: Pittsburgh

AFC Champion: Indianapolis

NFC East: New York
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Atlanta (not that good, but easy schedule)
NFC West: Seattle
Wildcard 1: Carolina
Wildcard 2: Philadelphia (I think they can get it together enough to slip in)

NFC Champion: Atlanta (I think NY is better, but they'll likely have home field, plus I cheer for them /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

Super Bowl winner: Indianapolis (I kinda want to pick somebody else, but they're likely to have home field too, and nobody in the NFC is nearly as good.)

I think I just made a lot of BSP picks. /images/graemlins/grin.gif I mostly picked the teams that were leading their divisions, because even a one-game lead is significant with this few games in the NFL season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright. Someone willing to actually post picks instead of just critiquing. In other words, bout time someone manned up with some predictions.

[TheRover]

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Atlanta's D has been far from "pretty awful". It's not great, but it's definitely good (note I didn't say "great"), and the best of the NFC teams in playoff contention other than the Bears IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see how you can call Atlanta's defense good. Their run defense is one of the worst in the NFL and their pass defense has been a bit below average.

[Clarkmeister]

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Atlanta's D has been far from "pretty awful". It's not great, but it's definitely good (note I didn't say "great"), and the best of the NFC teams in playoff contention other than the Bears IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see how you can call Atlanta's defense good. Their run defense is one of the worst in the NFL and their pass defense has been a bit below average.

[/ QUOTE ]

#10 in points allowed and they've played some decent offenses.

[Clarkmeister]

BTW, feel free to post your own picks.

[TheRover]

AFC East: Miami
AFC North: Cincy
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: San Diego
Wildcard 1: Pitt
Wildcard 2: Denver

AFC Champion: Indy (fanboy)

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Tampa
NFC West: Seattle
Wildcard 1: Atlanta
Wildcard 2: Washington

NFC Champion:
Seattle

Super Bowl winner: The Colts, finally.

[Clarkmeister]

Sweet. Now I get to pick on you for selecting Cinci. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jack of Arcades]

Atlanta's run defense is atrocious.

[TheRover]

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#10 in points allowed and they've played some decent offenses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Points allowed is a shitty statistic. What decent offenses have they played, New England and maybe Philly? I could be overlooking someone.

[TheRover]

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Sweet. Now I get to pick on you for selecting Cinci. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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/images/graemlins/grin.gif I don't mean to nitpick, I just disagree very strongly on this Atlanta thing. I won't argue Cincy over Pitt very hard and I didn't bother to look at schedules for the rest of the way.

[MCS]

So far, four people have posted picks, and I'm the only one who's picked Denver instead of San Diego.

Do you guys just not think a two-game lead is that significant? I think San Diego may be better, but they have to make up two games in eight games! Seems like a lot to me, and I think Denver should be favored.

Do you guys wanna make some kind of wager on the AFC West?

[Jack of Arcades]

Denver still has one game against San Diego and of their last 8 games, only 3 of them are at home.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

In all honesty though the only thing I switch in your picks is JVille with Cincy. Also I will put in St. Lois in place of Washington.

For the Superbowl I will just go with the best defenses. Steelers Vs. Bears.

I am not really sold on any of this though.

[holeplug]

AFC East: New England (won't overcome the injuries this year though)
AFC North: Pittsburgh (even if they don't get homefield I actually like their chances better than last year b/c the QB is better and won't choke in the playoffs (I think)
AFC South: Indianapolis (homefield is calling)
AFC West: Denver (I like how Shanahan is coaching them this season)
Wildcard 1: Jags
Wildcard 2: Cinci (don't think the Chargers can make up 2 games on them)

AFC Champion: Colts

NFC East: Eagles (schedule is easier with 5 home games in final 8. Plus I think Andy Reid finally has realized how much he [censored] up the offense with his ridiculous play calling and will run more which will simultaneously fix the offfense and defense)
NFC North: USC (slightly edging out a pesky Texas squad)
NFC South: Carolina (I didn't even realize they have won 4 in a row)
NFC West: Seattle
Wildcard 1: Atlanta (should fix the D with the bye week plus Vick and his .680 win % is healthy)
Wildcard 2: Giants (9 HOME GAMES!!!! I'm still bitter about this)

NFC Champion: Panthers

I think McNabb's injury will cost Philly their playoff game. I also think the Giants knock off one of the top 2 seeds but lose to Carolina in the champ. game

Super Bowl winner: Colts (the NFL sure did everything it could to get Peyton in the Super Bowl this year so we shall see I guess. Plus the NFC as a whole has improved but there is no team that is nearly as good as the Eagles were last year.

[TheRover]

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Super Bowl winner: Colts (the NFL sure did everything it could to get Peyton in the Super Bowl this year so we shall see I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, Party Poker is rigged.

The schedule isn't hand picked by Tags.

6 games vs div. opponents
4 games vs one NFC div.
4 games against one AFC div.
Two games against the team in non-scheduled conferences that finished in the same spot you did last year.

I think I have this right.

[Jack of Arcades]

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(Indy the obvious pick, I find their schedule to date suspect with only one real opponent, Jacksonville, and a less than impressive win against that opponent).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if Jacksonville's one of the best, say, 10 teams in the league, which seems reasonable - should their win really be that impressive?

There's no way Atlanta will get to the super bowl if they don't get a bye and HFA. It's Indy/Pitt in the AFC, and in the NFC one of the division winners... I'm guessing Seattle, but Chicago has a shot.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
So far, four people have posted picks, and I'm the only one who's picked Denver instead of San Diego.

Do you guys just not think a two-game lead is that significant? I think San Diego may be better, but they have to make up two games in eight games! Seems like a lot to me, and I think Denver should be favored.

Do you guys wanna make some kind of wager on the AFC West?

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver always gets out hot and then limps into the playoffs.

[Josh W]

Unless I've missed something, I gotta say...I'm surprised nobody has suggested the Tagliabue dream come true Manning v Manning Superbowl yet.

[Victor]

bengals play detroit and cleveland to garauntee 8 wins. buffalo at home in the week 16 is very close to a sure thing since it appears buffalo has already packed it in.

so, basically, they need to split with a vulnerable (to put it lightly) baltimore team to ensure 10 wins.

kc in week 17 could be a pivotal game though. however, if san diego erupts as you predict, kc will be eliminated by that point so the bengals should rise up with something to play for.

if you are a betting man i will certainly wager on the bengals to make the playoffs.

[Victor]

cinci schedule

@ balt
indy
balt
@ pitt
cleve
@ detroit
buffalo
@ kc

i see 4 more wins here.

[NoChance]

I checked schedules and this is what I come up with:

AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Denver Broncos
Wildcard 1: San Diego Chargers
Wildcard 2: Jacksonville Jaguars

NFC East: New York Giants
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Wildcard 1: Dallas Cowboys
Wildcard 2: Tampa Bay Bucs

NFC Champions: Seattle Seahawks
AFC Champion: Indianapolis Colts

SB Champion: Indianapolis Colts

NFC Just missed the cut: Carolina Panthers
AFC Just missed the cut: Cincinnati Bengals

[Jorge10]

I checked schedules, heres my picks:

AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
Wildcard 1: Denver Broncos
Wildcard 2: Cincinnati Bengals

The Jags havent proved that they can actually beat the scrubs of the league they lost to the Rams. They will probably have two more bad losses and get smacked by Indy. Thats why they wont make it.

The Broncos always start of well, but Jake hasnt had his usual 3 pick game. Hes due for at least 1, probably 2. Those are loses and then San Diego will probably smack them in San Diego.


NFC East: New York Giants
NFC North: Chicago Bears
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
Wildcard 1: Atlanta Falcons
Wildcard 2: Washington Redskins

Dallas cant beat the scrubs either, they are the Jags of the NFC, beating the 49ers by 3 stinkin points? Also they lost to the Raiders, enough said.

The Bucs just lost to the 49ers, everyone beats the Niners, they cant beat the scrubs either. The league figured out that if they just stop the run they dont have a QB that can actually do anything.

Philadelphia has stopped running the ball, they might fix it, but their defense looked terrible against Denver and the Chargers.

NFC Champions: Carolina Panthers
AFC Champion: Indianapolis Colts

SB Champion: Indianapolis Colts

Thats my reason for the picks, but who knows the NFL is so crazy sometimes. Wouldnt be surprised if some mystery team makes it that no one lists.

[scott8]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless I've missed something, I gotta say...I'm surprised nobody has suggested the Tagliabue dream come true Manning v Manning Superbowl yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was the main point of the Sports Guy's NFL picks last Friday.

[Matt Williams]

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#10 in points allowed and they've played some decent offenses.

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Points allowed is a shitty statistic.

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How is that a bad statistic? Last I checked, the team with the higher score won, not the one with the better stats.

[Toro]

Big flaw in your analysis. Marty Shottenheimer sucks bad in the playoffs.

[2+2 wannabe]

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers
Wildcards: Bengals, Broncos

NFC East: Cowboys (Giants have a tough sched)
NFC North: Bears
NFC South: Bucs
NFC West: Seahawks
Wildcards: Falcons, Giants

AFC Final: Patriots vs. Bengals
NFC Final: Seahawks vs. Giants

Super Bowl: Giants beat Patriots

SHIP IT!

[Shajen]

all you people picking the bears to win the north has me worried.

They'll find a way to piss it all away.

It's what they do. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Either way, assuming they do make it, I wouldn't want to be the team matching up against them in the first round. That D is nasty.

[kyro]

AFC EasY - Pats
AFC North - Steelers
AFC South - Colts
AFC West - Broncos
AFC WC1 - Chargers
AFC WC2 - Bengals

NFC East - Eagles
NFC North - Bears
NFC South - Panthers
NFC West - Seahawks
NFC WC1 - Giants
NFC WC2 - Falcons

NFC Champ - Panthers

SB MVP - Tedy Bruschi

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

<font color="white"> Alright, alright. I think the Colts take it this year. </font>

[pokerdirty]

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Super Bowl: Giants beat Patriots

[/ QUOTE ]

i laughed.

[Jack of Arcades]

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#10 in points allowed and they've played some decent offenses.

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Points allowed is a shitty statistic.

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How is that a bad statistic? Last I checked, the team with the higher score won, not the one with the better stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Atlanta's points allowed is deflated by their very effective running game. Since we're talking predictive statistics, a good defensive stat would:

a) correct for the offense's influence (ie, look at things in a play-by-play manner)
b) correct for schedule (Atlanta has played two top ten offenses: Seattle and New England)
c) correct for the randomness of fumble recoveries and defensive TDs. A team that looks good because it recovers a disproportionate amount of the fumbles they cause on defense will not look good for long.

Taking all this into account, FootballOutsiders ranks Atlanta 24th in Defense (18th pass, 30th rush).

[antidan444]

Colts 31, Giants 21

[BadBoyBenny]

AFC East: New England
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Indianapolis
AFC West: Denver
Wildcard 1: Jacksonville
Wildcard 2: San Diego

AFC Champ - Pittsburgh (San Diego's tough schedule and Indy's easy schedule set them up for a playoff meeting. Pittsburgh gets a bye and a much easier opponent before the championship)

NFC East: Philly
NFC North: Bears
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: Seattle
Wildcard 1: Atlanta
Wildcard 2: Giants

NFC Champ - The Eagles (I think their D will turn it around and start to dominate)

Super Bowl Winner:

Pittsburgh - Because they are my favorite team.

[lastchance]

AFC West: Denver
AFC South: Indy
AFC East: NE
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC Wild Card: Cincy
AFC Wild Card: Jacksonville
Honorary Mention: San Diego.

NFC West: Seattle
NFC South: Atlanta
NFC East: NYG
NFC North: Chicago
NFC Wild Card: Carolina
NFC Wild Card: Dallas
Honorary mention: TB (really was a tossup between them, CAR and ATL), and the rest of the NFC East. (NFC East and AFC West got shafted this year)

NFC Champ: Seattle (or NYG). Yeah, NYG's better, but you know what? Their schedule is harder, so they have less chance of byeing. Plus, it's always good to be homerish.

AFC Champ: Indy. I can't pick NE the way they've been playing. SD's schedule is way too hard for them to get a bye. Denver has 2 losses. Indy's got a locked up bye + defense. I have to take Indy.

Super Bowl Champion: Indianapolis.

I think Denver's solid enough to hold on to their 2 game lead. SD is one of the best teams in the league, but they've got 2 games to make up against a tough schedule.

Cincy has enough easy games to get at least 4 wins, probably 5. I can't pick against them.

I hate thinking Jax will get over SD, but have you seen Jax's schedule? So easy over the second half of the year.

Also, Indy isn't going to have that easy of a schedule. Over the second half of the season, they have 6-7 tough games. But they're good, and they won't blow their nicely padded bye lead.

I don't like Philly much. They've looked terrible on the road the last 3 road games. The win over SD was just pure luck. I don't think this version is like last year's. Akers going down hurt quite a bit.

[jgorham]

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Indy
AFC West: Chargers
AFC WC: Broncos
AFC WC: Bengals

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Chicago
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: Seahawks
NFC WC: Giants
NFC WC: Falcons

Chargers beat Seahawks in the championship.

[Seadood228]

There are way too many delusions about San Diego winning the AFC West. Denver might be the best team in the NFL right now, unfortunately it doesn't mean much because they can't beat the Colts in Indy.

SD has no secondary, and they have a crap coach that has a habit of getting pwned in big games.

[lastchance]

So, a week later looking at these picks, let me flip Carolina and Atlanta, and I'm losing a bit of faith in Jacksonville. Houston sucks. No one noticed KC a week earlier, which was a mistake, but their schedule in the NFC West is brutal, and SD's still better.

Revised Picks:
AFC West: Denver
AFC South: Indy
AFC East: NE
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC Wild Card: Cincy
AFC Wild Card: Jacksonville

NFC West: Seattle
NFC South: Carolina
NFC East: NYG
NFC North: Chicago
NFC Wild Card: Atlanta
NFC Wild Card: Dallas