OT: what would really kill sitngo profitability [Archive]

mlagoo

11-01-2005, 12:22 AM

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I'm not saying they wouldn't be, but what makes you think the chinese will all be so good at poker?

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this is something im always unsure about.

is it still racism if its a good thing about the race?

like the obvious implication is that chinese people are good at math, which is a stereotype that people like to bandy about. it's essentially a positive thing -- being good at something can't really be bad. but it's still racist, isn't it?

it's like saying black people have big penises (penii?), or are good at basketball. it's positive, but i'm pretty sure it's still racist.

Mr_J

11-01-2005, 12:23 AM

They won't be in general. I think he's just saying there will be more of them playing for profit since a low limit poker income for them is worth more than in the west.

Where do they get their BR from though lol.

Slim Pickens

11-01-2005, 12:31 AM

The Chinese culture has embraced the concept of "luck" for a very, very, long time. It's very important to be lucky, and to do things that bring good luck, and to avoid things that bring bad luck. When a large number of people who believe in luck get ahold of the ability to play poker against me, it can only be highly profitable. It would be just like the Orleans, except I could multitable.

There's a difference between culture and race, people.

Freudian

11-01-2005, 12:33 AM

Considering the censorship on internet traffic in China, poker bots is a much more realistic threat.

pergesu

11-01-2005, 12:35 AM

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Where do they get their BR from though lol.

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I'd stake 10k Chinese to play .01/.02 for me and take 50% of the earn

*ducks*

jba

11-01-2005, 12:36 AM

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When a large number of people who believe in luck get ahold of the ability to play poker against me, it can only be highly profitable.

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how many people in china have the discretionary income to play poker unprofitably?

how many people in china have the ability to work their way up through the micros?

I think OP has a great point.

pooh74

11-01-2005, 12:39 AM

Mr_J

11-01-2005, 12:40 AM

"ike the obvious implication is that chinese people are good at math"

Because they study hard...

"it's like saying black people have big penises"

Blacks and caucasians are about the same, other races are a little smaller.

"or are good at basketball"

Look at the other top bball countries, they're mostly white.

All of these sorts of things are cultural, not racial.

splashpot

11-01-2005, 12:43 AM

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When a large number of people who believe in luck get ahold of the ability to play poker against me, it can only be highly profitable.

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how many people in china have the discretionary income to play poker unprofitably?

how many people in china have the ability to work their way up through the micros?

I think OP has a great point.

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More people doesn't equate to tougher games. Just look at Party. If any observations are made, they definately have to do with race. The Chinese are seriuos gamblers. They'll gamble on anything. Introducing poker to a group of people who like to gamble as much as the Chinese do, can only help the game IMO.

(I'm Chinese btw)

Slim Pickens

11-01-2005, 01:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When a large number of people who believe in luck get ahold of the ability to play poker against me, it can only be highly profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

how many people in china have the discretionary income to play poker unprofitably?

how many people in china have the ability to work their way up through the micros?

I think OP has a great point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, I think this scare is the same sort of BS people were spewing in the 40's and 50's about women working and "taking men's jobs" and in the 70's about all the Asian students "taking Americans' places" in American universities.

You can make the exact same arguments about the Russians and eastern Europeans and Indians, and on and on, but it hasn't changed the landsacpe in the past and that isn't what'll do it in the future.

Plenty of Chinese people will soon have the income to play poker unprofitably, just as they'll also have the income to own personal cars and use lots of electricity.

curtains

11-01-2005, 01:06 AM

I think the OP's point is actually quite absurd.

I'm also worried that one day ghosts will take up the game, maybe the type of ghosts that can travel through the computer screen and see your cards. That would make the game tough to win too.

Anyone have any other quick and easy scenarios of how poker can become remarkably unprofitable in the near future?

Gramps

11-01-2005, 01:14 AM

I was in Macau (ex-Portugeese trading colony near Hong Kong in the Southern part of China) over Easter holiday this year. Sure, a fair number of people there were from Hong Kong and not the mainland, but at the casino my friends and I went to, every seat at every table was filled, with people playing Blackjack and Baccarat - the lowest minimums being $300 HK (about $40 US).

There's a fair number of people on the mainland making a ton of money, and they're willing to gamble away a lot of it. How that's bad for online poker players, I'm not sure. There's highly educated people in other countries where it's hard to earn a good (by US standards) wage that have access to the internet (i.e. Russia), but that hasn't "ruined" online poker by any stretch of the imagination. Don't see how China would be any different.

Irieguy

11-01-2005, 01:18 AM

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Answer

Letting the chinese population get in on the action. Once they figure out there is a way to make more than 20 cents an hour by playing a game we are all dead. Thank god for an oppressive communism government keeping our games as fishy as possible.

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This is one of the funnier examples of xenophobia that I've seen in a while.

Irieguy

ChrisV

11-01-2005, 01:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying they wouldn't be, but what makes you think the chinese will all be so good at poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is something im always unsure about.

is it still racism if its a good thing about the race?

like the obvious implication is that chinese people are good at math, which is a stereotype that people like to bandy about. it's essentially a positive thing -- being good at something can't really be bad. but it's still racist, isn't it?

it's like saying black people have big penises (penii?), or are good at basketball. it's positive, but i'm pretty sure it's still racist.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone is so scared of the racism bogey today. The following statements are all, in my opinion, true:

- Blacks are on average better runners than whites
- Whites are on average better swimmers than blacks

Everyone is generally cool with that. But most people balk at the following, which I also believe is true:

- Asians have higher average IQ than whites, who in turn have higher average IQ than blacks.

Most people reject this out of hand without even knowing anything about the subject. Nevertheless I think it's true. There are basically no implications here, it doesn't mean we should treat races any differently, either in terms of public policy or individually. It just seems to be taboo to discuss the subject, after a century tainted by apartheid, the Holocaust, and numerous other racial crimes and biases.

Anyway my point of view is that it's not racism if it is:

(1) True, and:
(2) You don't treat individual members of races differently.

Sorry about the thread hijack. The most prestigious horse race on the Australian calendar, the Melbourne Cup, has just been run and tradition is to stop work and have a few drinks, which indeed I have done. More than a few, actually.

mlagoo

11-01-2005, 01:44 AM

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Sorry about the thread hijack.

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I'm not =P The OP was pretty much absurd.

And I guess I have some issue with the "fact" of the relative IQ of all these races. I am not convinced that IQ (or any test, in fact) can accurately calculate "natural intelligence," whatever that actually means. This doesn't make it a useless test -- it just makes it limited.

I guess what I'm saying is, by the time children can be given an IQ test with any degree of accuracy, environmental factors have already substantially affected the development of the brain of the child. So it may not be the case that Blacks are *necessarily* less intelligent than whites -- it may simply be the case that, on average, blacks grow up in poverty more often than whites, and are therefore more often negatively affected by environmental standards, before (and probably after) they take their first IQ test.

Anyway, something to think about. Thanks for replying to my post though =).

And yeah, as a country we are way too PC. But generally the anti-PC people are anti-PC to a fault as well (because, I guess, they are trying to prove a point). There has to be a happy medium in there.

microbet

11-01-2005, 02:10 AM

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Everyone is so scared of the racism bogey today. The following statements are all, in my opinion, true:

- Blacks are on average better runners than whites
- Whites are on average better swimmers than blacks

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You're just pulling that out from down under. I'm sure there are no stats on this. Here are two possible explanations for why blacks dominate sprinting, neither of which imply blacks are faster on average.

1. There is greater genetic diversity within the class of people generally considered black than there is between the class of people generally considered black and the class of people who are generally not. I'm not 100% sure on this, but I have heard it and believe it has to do with humans existing in Africa a lot longer than anywhere else. Given that, you would expect all sorts of outliers from that class of people, but not necessarily a different average.

2. America rules and dominates a lot of athletics and our athletes come from the poorer parts of the population.

Whites are better swimmers? Well, maybe not enough pools in the hood.

[ QUOTE ]

Everyone is generally cool with that. But most people balk at the following, which I also believe is true:

- Asians have higher average IQ than whites, who in turn have higher average IQ than blacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Outside of the problems with testing, I'm sure IQ is not solely determined by genetics. Even things like prenatal nutrition can affect IQ.

I know that doesn't necessarily mean as it stands different groups don't have different IQs, just that the cause isn't necessarily genetic.

I'm not saying there aren't necessarily differences, just that they aren't really established.

The big problem is that race can not be defined well enough to study any of these issues.

Have you ever seen the studies on infidelity? In some countries as many as 10% of people who think they know who their father is are wrong. Take this back 1,000 generations and tell me you know what race you are.

Anyway, I'm sure I said some pretty suspect stuff in there and I'm not even drunk.

Irieguy

11-01-2005, 02:14 AM

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- Asians have higher average IQ than whites, who in turn have higher average IQ than blacks.

Most people reject this out of hand without even knowing anything about the subject. Nevertheless I think it's true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, as long as you think it's true then I agree that most people would be wrong to reject your premise.

Irieguy

ChrisV

11-01-2005, 02:18 AM

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I am not convinced that IQ (or any test, in fact) can accurately calculate "natural intelligence," whatever that actually means. This doesn't make it a useless test -- it just makes it limited.

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Well, intelligence is a pretty nebulous concept. But just because it's hard to measure doesn't mean it doesn't exist. IQ tests, flawed though they are, do a pretty good approximation. Actually it's similar to the ICM debate that's been going on over the last little while. The anti-ICM side's argument is basically "Tournament equity is a hard thing to measure. Therefore, let's not even try".

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I'm saying is, by the time children can be given an IQ test with any degree of accuracy, environmental factors have already substantially affected the development of the brain of the child. So it may not be the case that Blacks are *necessarily* less intelligent than whites -- it may simply be the case that, on average, blacks grow up in poverty more often than whites, and are therefore more often negatively affected by environmental standards, before (and probably after) they take their first IQ test.

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These factors are all well known. Studies which take them into account still show IQ differences.

You would be hard pressed to find a psychometrician out there who doesn't believe in racial IQ differences. It reminds me of global warming, or evolution, two areas where the Right has tried to give the impression that there's scientific uncertainty when there isn't. Racial IQ differences is the Left's pet denial.

Mr_J

11-01-2005, 02:29 AM

Lol. Again, these are cultural differences and not racial differences.

"- Blacks are on average better runners than whites"

What sort of running are we talking about?? Long distance whites are DEFINATELY competitive (arabs are caucasian).

Swimming?? Whites are simply more likely to swim, and therefore more likely to swim at a competitive level.

"Asians have higher average IQ than whites, who in turn have higher average IQ than blacks"

What's this based on? Asians seem smarter simply because they usually study harder.

ChrisV

11-01-2005, 02:32 AM

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America rules and dominates a lot of athletics and our athletes come from the poorer parts of the population.

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Countries like Kenya and Ethiopia do stunningly well in athletics, despite not having enough money for a decent national sports program. They barely have enough food to give people proper nutrition. Majority-white countries (most of Europe, or my home of Australia) are all hopeless at running events.

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Whites are better swimmers? Well, maybe not enough pools in the hood.

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No. It's a buoyancy thing. Blacks have a much higher average body mass index.

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Outside of the problems with testing, I'm sure IQ is not solely determined by genetics.

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Good God, no. I'm not really familiar with the numbers but I think that it is generally accepted that upbringing has a larger role than genetics.

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I'm not saying there aren't necessarily differences, just that they aren't really established.

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My point doesn't even really require you to agree with me that there are racial differences in IQ. It's more about the manner in which you disagree. A lot of people, I would say the majority, authoritatively reply "Ah yes, but you see it's all down to upbringing factors" and reject out of hand that any of the difference is racial despite knowing nothing about the subject. To countenance any possibility of racial differences has become so tainted by the crimes of racism that people will just refuse to consider it.

Kanchi

11-01-2005, 02:36 AM

I absolutely loved HK and enjoyed Macau when I went this summer. I have every intention of going again next year, it simply blows ass here.

By any chance is anyone here I_amChinaman at the $33 tables?

ChrisV

11-01-2005, 02:41 AM

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What's this based on?

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There's a huge amount of literature out there on the subject. A good summary article on the subject of group differences is here (http://www.commentarymagazine.com/production/files/murray0905.html).

Mr_J

11-01-2005, 02:50 AM

"Countries like Kenya and Ethiopia do stunningly well in athletics, despite not having enough money for a decent national sports program. They barely have enough food to give people proper nutrition. Majority-white countries (most of Europe, or my home of Australia) are all hopeless at running events."

Lol. What makes this based on race??? Could just be culture or enviroment, eg morocco produces many of the best long distance runners and I'd bet most were caucasian.

Aussies fastest 100m runner clocked one of the fastest times in the world over the last 12 months or something and he's half white (and half aboriginal, aboriginals aren't black).

There are plenty of other factors that explain why one race seems better than others at something.

Slim Pickens

11-01-2005, 02:52 AM

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What's this based on?

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There's a huge amount of literature out there on the subject. A good summary article on the subject of group differences is here (http://www.commentarymagazine.com/production/files/murray0905.html).

[/ QUOTE ]

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In all cases, the variation within groups is greater than the variation between groups.

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I claim this statement from the Charles Murray article makes the whole dicussion fairly pointless. It also makes me wonder about the statistical merit of a lot of studies.

gumpzilla

11-01-2005, 03:05 AM

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In all cases, the variation within groups is greater than the variation between groups.

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I claim this statement from the Charles Murray article makes the whole dicussion fairly pointless. It also makes me wonder about the statistical merit of a lot of studies.

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I confess I don't necessarily see the problem. Roughly speaking, I can put two fat bell curves next to each other, with the centers of the distribution separated by less than the standard deviation of the curves. That doesn't mean that the averages can't be different.

I think this thread illustrates ChrisV's original point - namely, that it's pretty much impossible to have any discussion about race without it getting pretty contentious quite quickly. I think it would be helpful if this weren't as strongly the case, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

mlagoo

11-01-2005, 03:11 AM

I think this thread has been pretty civil, all things considered.

I guess my issue with what ChrisV is saying is that . . . it seems to be he is saying that, despite the fact that we cannot say for sure that the IQ test is sufficient to determine genetic differences in intelligence, that shouldn't preclude us from determining that there are genetic differences in intelligence. But I don't see what evidence has been provided, apart from the IQ test, to suggest that that is in fact the case.

edit: I wanted to edit this to comment that I didn't yet take the time to read that article ChrisV posted, which may have addressed this. I am trying to do homework and just keep shooting over here for study breaks.

Slim Pickens

11-01-2005, 03:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

In all cases, the variation within groups is greater than the variation between groups.

[/ QUOTE ]

I claim this statement from the Charles Murray article makes the whole dicussion fairly pointless. It also makes me wonder about the statistical merit of a lot of studies.

[/ QUOTE ]

I confess I don't necessarily see the problem. Roughly speaking, I can put two fat bell curves next to each other, with the centers of the distribution separated by less than the standard deviation of the curves. That doesn't mean that the averages can't be different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't necessarily see a problem either, but I am wondering aloud if the surveys (I'm not going so far as to call them controlled experiments since I don't know anything about how they were done) that claim to discover various genetic IQ differences between the races while removing enviromental factors really have the necessary sample size to resolve two wide peaks in close proximity. I'm hoping someone who knows the background better might be able to say something to that effect.

DMACM

11-01-2005, 03:26 AM

I realize this takes this discussion further off topic. But assuming racial intelligence differences are negligable and general intelligence actually does exist. I wonder what percentage of the population has the potential(intelligence) to beat the game of poker at a high level. I dont know any substantial winners personally and I am not but I do believe some large percentage of the population might not be able to succeed in poker or be highly unlikely to do so.

Bluff Daddy

11-01-2005, 04:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"ike the obvious implication is that chinese people are good at math"

Because they study hard...

"it's like saying black people have big penises"

Blacks and caucasians are about the same, other races are a little smaller.

"or are good at basketball"

Look at the other top bball countries, they're mostly white.

All of these sorts of things are cultural, not racial.

[/ QUOTE ]

how many 6'9" white guys do you see running around with 40" verticals?

Mr_J

11-01-2005, 04:51 AM

"how many 6'9" white guys do you see running around with 40" verticals?"

Are you trying to say that one race is better than another at bball??

MS Sunshine

11-01-2005, 05:07 AM

"Anyway my point of view is that it's not racism if it is:

(1) True, and:
(2) You don't treat individual members of races differently.
"

If I notice enough of a trend of blind defending from those of Chinese providences hometowns then you all will be calling me a racist because I'll be letting all those boys' blinds alone just like I do the west Canadians' blinds.

MS Sunshine

ChrisV

11-01-2005, 05:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess my issue with what ChrisV is saying is that . . . it seems to be he is saying that, despite the fact that we cannot say for sure that the IQ test is sufficient to determine genetic differences in intelligence, that shouldn't preclude us from determining that there are genetic differences in intelligence. But I don't see what evidence has been provided, apart from the IQ test, to suggest that that is in fact the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that there is a large body of evidence to say that different races get different average IQ test results. There's no evidence to say that IQ tests are a good measure of "intelligence" because that's just semantics: it depends on your definition of intelligence.

Read the stuff in that article I posted on the general mental factor g for a discussion of the nature of whatever it is we're measuring.

11-01-2005, 06:55 AM

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Where do they get their BR from though lol.

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I'd stake 10k Chinese to play .01/.02 for me and take 50% of the earn

*ducks*

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nh

Freudian

11-01-2005, 06:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess my issue with what ChrisV is saying is that . . . it seems to be he is saying that, despite the fact that we cannot say for sure that the IQ test is sufficient to determine genetic differences in intelligence, that shouldn't preclude us from determining that there are genetic differences in intelligence. But I don't see what evidence has been provided, apart from the IQ test, to suggest that that is in fact the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that there is a large body of evidence to say that different races get different average IQ test results. There's no evidence to say that IQ tests are a good measure of "intelligence" because that's just semantics: it depends on your definition of intelligence.

Read the stuff in that article I posted on the general mental factor g for a discussion of the nature of whatever it is we're measuring.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that the IQ tests are not blind to education, training and being able to read. But some asian countries have reported better averages than any other country. The reason for that could be one of several (selection bias, better preparedness, deliberate misrepresentation because of national pride and of course a higher IQ). It is also noticable that if you believe these studies the average person in some African countries are at the level of a retard (~70 IQ).

I would take these studies with a pretty large grain of salt. Most likely there are pretty big problems with data collection and sample size. Besides that it is these days pretty hard to find serious academics that equate IQ tests with intelligence. The tests are pretty limited. Don't tell Sklansky though. I don't want him to pop a vein.