View Full Version : For supposedly smart players, nobody here really understands variance
I see so many downswing complaint posts on these boards. It's unbelievable to me that so many players who supposedly have a solid understanding of the game can get so emotional about variance. I think it must be a combination of the fact that many people here haven't been playing that long (and hence haven't been through mutiple large downswings) and that many of the players here are actually tilt-prone. Tilt-prone players are also the ones that tend to complain about variance due to a deficient understanding of the mathematics of poker, so that would make sense I suppose.
Anyways, I suggest many of you take a good long look at the literature on this. As a player for many years, it was really surprising to me to finally log on here and see what seems to me to be totally underdeveloped notions about variance from even the (supposed) best players on the site.
Flame away I suppose, since most of you don't do much else on here. But examine at your games and the real extent of your knowledge too, if you want to make more money.
Maulik
11-01-2005, 12:05 AM
Understanding variance and dealing with it are two different animals.
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Understanding variance and dealing with it are two different animals.
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No, they are not.
stinkypete
11-01-2005, 12:09 AM
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Understanding variance and dealing with it are two different animals.
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No, they are not.
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yes they are.
SoftcoreRevolt
11-01-2005, 12:09 AM
Yes, they are. Knowing "Well it is normal that I just lost 300 dollars, heck that is only ___ BB" is one thing.
Not wanting to punch something because of it is another.
I don't get mad, or begin worrying about my game when I experience down swings, (at least on the forum.) but I understand those that do.
B Dids
11-01-2005, 12:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
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Understanding variance and dealing with it are two different animals.
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No, they are not.
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yes they are.
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Co-sign.
Whoever claimed that the posters here are "supposedly smart?" I think this supposition is open to question.
For example, the post below calls into question whether posters here may reasonably be presumed to be smart:
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Understanding variance and dealing with it are two different animals.
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No, they are not.
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On a related point, the fact that the forum is open to anyone at all that takes the trouble to register, combined with the fact that someone could spend all of a month or so here and then unreservedly state that "nobody" here understands a particular concept, similarly undermines the thesis that posters here are smart. There are plenty of trolls, however, and this is demonstrable without much effort.
ZenMusician
11-01-2005, 12:34 AM
Ni Han Sa
-ZEN
JeanieJ
11-01-2005, 12:40 AM
We are human. We have emotions. Losing sucks. Some people handle it better than others. We're not all able to shut down our emotions.
Next time you make a post, try not insulting the entire forum. You might find nicer replies.
stinkypete
11-01-2005, 12:44 AM
come on dude... are you honestly saying that a 2000BB downswing wouldn't bother you because you know there is some probability > 0 that it will happen?
Justin A
11-01-2005, 01:07 AM
Are you really a Gerry with a G?
pokergrader
11-01-2005, 01:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I see so many downswing complaint posts on these boards. It's unbelievable to me that so many players who supposedly have a solid understanding of the game can get so emotional about variance. I think it must be a combination of the fact that many people here haven't been playing that long (and hence haven't been through mutiple large downswings) and that many of the players here are actually tilt-prone. Tilt-prone players are also the ones that tend to complain about variance due to a deficient understanding of the mathematics of poker, so that would make sense I suppose.
Anyways, I suggest many of you take a good long look at the literature on this. As a player for many years, it was really surprising to me to finally log on here and see what seems to me to be totally underdeveloped notions about variance from even the (supposed) best players on the site.
Flame away I suppose, since most of you don't do much else on here. But examine at your games and the real extent of your knowledge too, if you want to make more money.
[/ QUOTE ]
While I realize that there is a risk of me dying in a plane crash, I don't think I would be wrong for complaining about it if a crash were to happen to me.
TStoneMBD
11-01-2005, 10:37 AM
have you ever hit a 300BB downswing yourself? if you have, did that downswing upset you in any way? if you havent hit a 300BB downwing but hit one shortly, can you honestly say that the downswing wouldnt upset you at all in any way?
btw i want to thank you for devoting your poker experience to this forum in the form of telling people to stop posting downswing threads. thats exactly what we need more of since we dont already have enough of that.
The issue for many is determining when the downswing is due to variance and when it is due to something else. Particularly in light of the relatively short time that many of us have been playing and the speed at which the online games have been changing/evolving, some angst at a big downswing is completely understandable.
[ QUOTE ]
have you ever hit a 300BB downswing yourself? if you have, did that downswing upset you in any way? if you havent hit a 300BB downwing but hit one shortly, can you honestly say that the downswing wouldnt upset you at all in any way?
btw i want to thank you for devoting your poker experience to this forum in the form of telling people to stop posting downswing threads. thats exactly what we need more of since we dont already have enough of that.
[/ QUOTE ]
I've hit a few. It bothered me when I was new to the game and I couldn't figure out how much was variance and how much was poor play. It bothered me when I didn't understand variance. Now that I do, it doesn't bother me at all (and of course happens much more infrequently).
A caveat to my original post. I suppose "nobody" was too strong. There are surely some people here to understand variance, but I would imagine they don't post on the complaint threads very much.
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come on dude... are you honestly saying that a 2000BB downswing wouldn't bother you because you know there is some probability > 0 that it will happen?
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A 2000 BB downswing wouldn't be variance 99.999...% of the time. Don't be ridiculous.
TStoneMBD
11-01-2005, 11:15 AM
there are people that will go hundreds of thousands of hands running much worse than average and there are people who go hundreds of thousands of hands and run much better than the other. one buys a house in cash and the other one rents a studio.
if you were the one renting the studio knowing that variance took a shat on you it wouldnt bother you even now? i dont care how good of a player you are or think you are, if you understand variance you would know that starting from this day forward you could lose every hand for the rest of your life.
how would that make you feel?
TexArcher
11-01-2005, 11:30 AM
People are emotional. Money is on the line. I don't come on here with my bad beat stories, but some people do, and so what? If someone wants to vent online simply ignore their thread. Then you won't have to waste a couple minutes of your own time making such a condescending, pompous, baiting post. Too many of those here already, you're not helping...
sammy_g
11-01-2005, 11:34 AM
This guy does. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3452933&page=0&vc=1)
Guthrie
11-01-2005, 11:34 AM
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While I realize that there is a risk of me dying in a plane crash, I don't think I would be wrong for complaining about it if a crash were to happen to me.
[/ QUOTE ]
Or cursing loudly all the way down while trying to fix the airplane.
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