Houston Rockets are going to the finals, you can put money on it.

[lautzutao]

Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift, Sura and Mutombo are coming on the bench. Tell me I'm wrong.

[Morphling29]

your wrong

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
Houston Rockets are going to the finals, you can put money on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can. It would be a waste of money.



They do not have the best starter at any position, and certainly not collectively. If Duncan goes down, Houston has a 1 out of 5 chance of making it out of the West. If TD is playing, they don't have a prayer.

I'll bite on the off chance you're looking for serious discussion. They are, in my opinion, at best the 6th best team in the west at this point, behind (in no particular order) the Suns, Spurs, Mavs, Nuggets, and Kings. I have not looked at the prices, but if you are looking for a bet on a west team that is not the Suns or the Spurs, I'd consider the Mavs. The addition of Doug Christie -- who will add defense to a team that has been improving its defense over the past couple of years -- may be significant. I also like the switch to Diop as Dampier's backup, from Bradley. Diop can play, which he might have to do if Dampier's foul woes continue. They also have a player like Marquis Daniels, who you would expect to improve significantly off his terrible season last year. I think the Mavs will give the top two a run for their money; and if A. Stoudemire cannot make it back in time to be meaningful down the stretch, the Mavs could battle the Spurs for the crown in the West.

[TwoNiner]

[ QUOTE ]
They are, in my opinion, at best the 6th best team in the west at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

6th best? wow. I'm open for wagering there. I'll lay say -150.

[ QUOTE ]
Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift...coming off the bench.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore you are including Juwon Howard as one of the 5 cogs in the NBA's best starting 5. O-K.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They are, in my opinion, at best the 6th best team in the west at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

6th best? wow. I'm open for wagering there. I'll lay say -150.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rather than calling me an idiot, which is basically what you're doing, why don't you share your knowledge and tell us which of the 5 teams I listed Houston is better than right now, and explain why you think so.

Edit: I now see your location. Explains your dementia.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
tell us which of the 5 teams I listed Houston is better than right now, and explain why you think so.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think they're better than Sacramento, but I don't really feel like explaining much of why, other than I feel like their best players are better than Sacramento's. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Also, re: Juwan, I thought Stromile Swift was gonna start.

I just looked on Pinnacle and they have the second shortest odds to win the West at +734 (San Antonio is -111). The only other team under +1000 is Phoenix.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift, Sura and Mutombo are coming on the bench. Tell me I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs. Maybe 15% to get out of the first round, 3% to make the conference finals. Less than 1% to win it all.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, re: Juwan, I thought Stromile Swift was gonna start.

[/ QUOTE ]

Juwan is going to start. If Swift does start, it weakens his argument that the bench is any hot shakes.

[TwoNiner]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clarkmeister, just because I'm from Houston as the above poster pointed, and still riding high from the Astros season, I will give you a huge EV bet and lay 3-1 the Rockets make the playoffs. Something fun for the long boring NBA season.

To the guy calling for 5th in the West, I see them as second in the West if T-Mac is healthy, he is bitching about some real bad tendinitis in his knees right now. If he misses significant time I see them sitting in at 4th. I go Spurs-(Rockets)-Mavs-Nugs if everyone is healthy. Alston and Derek Anderson finally give us players that can throw an entry pass, and I think that will be a huge improvement that flies under the radar. Whether Yao catches half of them is another matter. Stromile blocking some shots and keeping people off Yao will help also.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clarkmeister, just because I'm from Houston as the above poster pointed, and still riding high from the Astros season, I will give you a huge EV bet and lay 3-1 the Rockets make the playoffs. Something fun for the long boring NBA season.

To the guy calling for 5th in the West, I see them as second in the West if T-Mac is healthy, he is bitching about some real bad tendinitis in his knees right now. If he misses significant time I see them sitting in at 4th. I go Spurs-(Rockets)-Mavs-Nugs if everyone is healthy. Alston and Derek Anderson finally give us players that can throw an entry pass, and I think that will be a huge improvement that flies under the radar. Whether Yao catches half of them is another matter. Stromile blocking some shots and keeping people off Yao will help also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just bet the Under 53.5. I had no idea it was that high. Thanks for the offer, I'll just stick with the under bet. Good luck.

[TwoNiner]

Yeah, I bet the over at 53 but cancelled out quite a bit b/c of the T-Mac worries. He was on the news complaining his knees have never been this bad or this early in the season. Yesterday they said he would start the opener, but I'm not real sure now.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Best starting 5 in the NBA, and Swift, Sura and Mutombo are coming on the bench. Tell me I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs. Maybe 15% to get out of the first round, 3% to make the conference finals. Less than 1% to win it all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Past disagreements aside, I usually have similar thoughts to you Clark. But 15% to make it out of the first round of the playoffs? That seems steep to me.

Obviously the #1 seed is set. But outside of that, there's enough parity that I don't think any of the 2-7, 3-6, or 4-5 matchups will haev a 3:1 favorite, which they'd need to be if Houston is 60% to make the playoffs.

Don't know if this rambling makes sense....but even with TMac's well publicized struggles to get out of the first round, I still think they have a 30% chance to get to the 2nd round, especially considering the way TMac played vs. Dallas in the playoffs last year.

My two cents....

[llabb]

The Rockets already won 51 games last season. After T-Mac and Yao meshed, they went 27-10, which translates to 60 wins in a full season. They had separate 6-game, 7-game, and 8-game undefeated win-streaks. 53.5 wins for the season is a tough, tough line, either way.

The reason there is so much room for disagreement in this thread (after agreeing that the OP's comments are crazy), is that the West is wide open after San Antonio. Houston could easily be the 2nd best or the 6th best team. Houston, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, and Sac are all strong teams. It will be an interesting season to watch which of those seize the lead.

[TwoNiner]

[ QUOTE ]
The Rockets already won 51 games last season. After T-Mac and Yao meshed, they went 27-10

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it was more tangible than that, The Rockets started out horrible with Tyron Lue playing point untill Sura returned and before the Barry/Wesley trades in late December they were under .500 So, the team that played most of the year last year was already better than a 51 win team. Another year of growth for Yao, and the additions of Swift, Derek Anderson, and Alston and I think they will be very solid. And just another note. If Howard didn't have a heart infection, they dispatch of the Mavericks last year without starting Ryan freaking Bowen. Man, that was bad depth,

One thing I'll advise is taking the over in Rocket's games once the season gets a few games in and the rust isn't on each team. They were a great "over" team even after the Barry/Wesley additions b/c of the idea people have of Van Gundy's style. With Swift, Anderson and Alston added Van Gundy said they will definitely be running even more this year.

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll bite on the off chance you're looking for serious discussion. They are, in my opinion, at best the 6th best team in the west at this point, behind (in no particular order) the Suns, Spurs, Mavs, Nuggets, and Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are an idiot. Rockets are 7 pt favorites vs the Kings tomorrow. Rockets are priced as bigger favorites to win the NBA Finals than all the other teams you mention as well, discounting the Spurs.



[/ QUOTE ]

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd put them at 60% to make the playoffs. Maybe 15% to get out of the first round, 3% to make the conference finals. Less than 1% to win it all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Change that number to about 60% to make it out of the first round and you all might start to sound like you know what you're talking about.

Right now the Rockets are priced on most sportsbooks as the 2nd or 3rd best team in the WC. If that happens, they will open their first round matchup at anywhere from -150 to -300 to win their first round, depending what seeding they get. I've never seen worse opinions in a sports betting forum in my life.

Are these posts real? Obviously the Rockets are nowhere near the Spurs right now, but they are clearly EXCELLENT. A very strong argument could be made for them being the 2nd best team in the west as their lineup is superb with Yao and TMac becoming an absolute elite pair. Saying things like Houston is 60% to make the playoffs and 10% or whatever it was to get out of the first round is as crazy as saying they're a lock to make the NBA finals.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll bite on the off chance you're looking for serious discussion. They are, in my opinion, at best the 6th best team in the west at this point, behind (in no particular order) the Suns, Spurs, Mavs, Nuggets, and Kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are an idiot. Rockets are 7 pt favorites vs the Kings tomorrow. Rockets are priced as bigger favorites to win the NBA Finals than all the other teams you mention as well, discounting the Spurs.



[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

[Brad F.]

A pretty silly thread here if you ask me. Two Houston homers trying to talk biased smack about their team.

Let's look at thw Western Conference from an analytical standpoint. I love the Western Conference in the NBA, growing up in Denver I am a big Nuggets fan and the rest of the conference has always played good basketball, with the Nugs just coming into the mix. My dad was a very big Blazer fan up until the mid nineties, so I grew up watching western conference teams all the time. I've read SI predictions, ESPN predictions, and I feel like this is going to be the tightest conference in the common era of the NBA.

Here's a quick look at the top 8 or so WC teams:

1) Spurs. I really don't need to go into depth here do I? They added talent, and they were the best team in basketball last year.
2) Nuggets. Now before you flame me for being a homer, I don't think the Nugs are the 2nd best team in the WC, they will just be seeded here because 1, they won't have much quality competition in the Northwest, and 2, the Pacific is weak and Sacramento/Pheonix/Lakers all will not match the Nuggets record. The Nuggets had the best record in basketball the second half, got Voshon Lenard back and picked up a gret defensive PG in Earl Watson. They should grab the 2nd seed.
3) Sacramento. Probably the 5th best tewm in the West, maybe the 6th, but their division is weak. The Suns lost Joe Johnson and Amare and they can still beat an improved Sacramento team for the division? I don't think so. The addition of Kenny Thomas along with Brad Miller, Bibby and Stojakovic equals a good team.
4) Dallas Mavericks. They are a more well-rounded team than the Rockets. They have a deeper bench, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels are improving, Jason Terry is going to have a better season, and Dirk is better than Yao overall. You can make an argument that the Rockets go here, but I think the Rockets are slightly below.
5) Houston Rockets. The team did start to mesh last year, but they still have holes. Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem. SG is also an issue with David Wesely/Derek Anderson sharing time. Sura is a workhorse, and proved his worth down the stretch last season. Maybe the 3rd best team behind the Spurs/Mavs, but maybe the 4th.
6) Seattle Sonics. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Radmanovic, Luke Collison, Ridnour. Good players, can they create the same output they had at the beginning of last year?
7) Pheonix Suns. Steve Nash leads a torn apart Suns team. We will have to see how Raja and Thomas do with bigger roles. Jim Jackson is solid, but I don't see this team doing much in the regular season. We'll need to watch out come playoff time though.
8) Minnesota/LA Lakers/LA Clippers/Utah/Golden State. Who knows, all these teams could creep up even into a 7 spot.

These are my thoughts. Just wanted to put some actual analysis in there for the Houston lovers.

Brad

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]


Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

[/ QUOTE ]


The main difference between me and you is that you're a pompous douche who knows nothing about sports and I make a living betting on it. If the Kings are slightly better than the Rockets as you say, the line should be Rockets -1. I'll wager any amount up to $5k on the Rockets at that line if you're willing to book it. Thoughts?

[Brad F.]

You obviously know nothing about lines, especially opening night NBA lines.

Even if the Kings were 'slightly' better, the line would still be -5 or 6 Rockets. The Rockets would be at -3 over the Spurs if they met in game one.

Brad

[TwoNiner]

[ QUOTE ]
A pretty silly thread here if you ask me. Two Houston homers trying to talk biased smack about their team...
...Houston Rockets. The team did start to mesh last year, but they still have holes. Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem. SG is also an issue with David Wesely/Derek Anderson sharing time. Sura is a workhorse, and proved his worth down the stretch last season. Maybe the 3rd best team behind the Spurs/Mavs, but maybe the 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your informed opinion about the Rockets. You obviously have a firm grasp on things.

1-Bob Sura isn't the starting PG Alston is.

2- The team didn't magically "mesh" last year. They acquired much better personell than they had before and went 36-16 from January on. To that team that won at a 69% clip they added 2 players Derek Anderson, Rafer Alston, who are good enough to start ahead of last year's players. And a third Stomile Swift who is splitting time and will be starting by season's end. They improved every position besides T-Mac and Yao Ming.

3-"Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem" It sure as hell is more impressive than Juwan Howard/Ryan Bowen. I'd say they improved significantly.

No way I would bet Houston to win the West at 10-1. Spurs are too good and there are other tough teams to beat. But like the one guy said, the people real off on this thread are the ones arguing against logic and Vegas. And as I said above, since this is a gambling website and hopefully we like to gamble and have expendable cash around. Someone please take me up on the rediculous predictions for the Rockets.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

[/ QUOTE ]


The main difference between me and you is that you're a pompous douche who knows nothing about sports and I make a living betting on it. If the Kings are slightly better than the Rockets as you say, the line should be Rockets -1. I'll wager any amount up to $5k on the Rockets at that line if you're willing to book it. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts are that, based on your highly intelligent posts, the chances are good that (1) I will never see the $5000, (2) the money will be counterfeit, or (3) you would pay me over many years, in rolls of nickels. So, I will respectfully decline your most generous offer, although I am sure my decision not to take a bet from some anonymous teenager whose posts demonstrate that he would have difficulty even counting to 5,000 will be met with the response that I am a "pussy". Such are the trials and tribulations of being a pompous douche.

Your opinions are not unreasonable. My personal feeling is that you are ignoring some obvious considerations, such as the fact that Stromile Swift has yet to shed his "potential" label in his 5 years in the league. Could he this year, with Van Gundy? Sure. Suffice it to say that, in my opinion, a lot -- a whole lot -- has to go right this year for Houston to win the West, which is the opinion that started this thread. But one cannot reasonably say that they are not in the mix of 6 or 7 teams that could come out of the conference.

But you are right for sure that we should look at this in terms of a wager. I see that Houston is +700 to win the West on Olympic. I think that's way too low to consider a wager (and you seem to agree with that). I would take Dallas at +1000 if I was looking for a wager with some value in the west.

[ QUOTE ]
Your opinions are not unreasonable. My personal feeling is that you are ignoring some obvious considerations, such as the fact that Stromile Swift has yet to shed his "potential" label in his 5 years in the league. Could he this year, with Van Gundy? Sure. Suffice it to say that, in my opinion, a lot -- a whole lot -- has to go right this year for Houston to win the West, which is the opinion that started this thread. But one cannot reasonably say that they are not in the mix of 6 or 7 teams that could come out of the conference.

But you are right for sure that we should look at this in terms of a wager. I see that Houston is +700 to win the West on Olympic. I think that's way too low to consider a wager (and you seem to agree with that). I would take Dallas at +1000 if I was looking for a wager with some value in the west.

[/ QUOTE ]

I too think Dallas is an undervalued squad in the West.

[TwoNiner]

Heads up: CRIS has Dallas at +1400 to win the West. I think that may be a fair price if you have high expectations for Dallas, but in the end you are still going to be left with a pretty crappy bet of Dallas against San Antonio, which isn't going to be fun to hedge with San Antonio's heavy price (if you even get it in the Finals). I think your better off just playing the season total. The risk you run there is if say Dirk goes down for a stretch but is back for the playoffs, then you'd rather have the championship bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Heads up: CRIS has Dallas at +1400 to win the West. I think that may be a fair price if you have high expectations for Dallas, but in the end you are still going to be left with a pretty crappy bet of Dallas against San Antonio, which isn't going to be fun to hedge with San Antonio's heavy price (if you even get it in the Finals). I think your better off just playing the season total. The risk you run there is if say Dirk goes down for a stretch but is back for the playoffs, then you'd rather have the championship bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was just a thought, I'm not going to play it. Thanks for the tip.

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]
You obviously know nothing about lines, especially opening night NBA lines.

Even if the Kings were 'slightly' better, the line would still be -5 or 6 Rockets. The Rockets would be at -3 over the Spurs if they met in game one.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If you have two teams of equal strength playing one another, the home team will be about -3. On neutral site, they will be pk. Therefore, if the Rockets are equal to the Kings in strength, they will be -3. If they are slightly worse, they will be -1 or -2. If they are clearly worse, the Kings would be a road favorite.

By the way, 'opening night' lines are no different than lines available the rest of the year. What an ignorant statement.

Please keep quiet and let the real professionals do the talking.

[DCJ311]

[ QUOTE ]



My thoughts are that, based on your highly intelligent posts, the chances are good that (1) I will never see the $5000, (2) the money will be counterfeit, or (3) you would pay me over many years, in rolls of nickels. So, I will respectfully decline your most generous offer, although I am sure my decision not to take a bet from some anonymous teenager whose posts demonstrate that he would have difficulty even counting to 5,000 will be met with the response that I am a "pussy". Such are the trials and tribulations of being a pompous douche.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are several people on this site that can vouch for me on this. Or if you don't believe me, find a respected third party that can hold both of our money in escrow. You name the betting amount but I'll take up to 5k in action on the Rockets -1.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]



My thoughts are that, based on your highly intelligent posts, the chances are good that (1) I will never see the $5000, (2) the money will be counterfeit, or (3) you would pay me over many years, in rolls of nickels. So, I will respectfully decline your most generous offer, although I am sure my decision not to take a bet from some anonymous teenager whose posts demonstrate that he would have difficulty even counting to 5,000 will be met with the response that I am a "pussy". Such are the trials and tribulations of being a pompous douche.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are several people on this site that can vouch for me on this. Or if you don't believe me, find a respected third party that can hold both of our money in escrow. You name the betting amount but I'll take up to 5k in action on the Rockets -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, my internet is down. Can you tell me how the Rockets have been doing so far this year?