KT flops a Gutshot straight draw

[hemstock]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on hzerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero?

It seems that I dont have the pot odds getting 7.5 to 1 on my money but betting could be capped meaning I am getting only 5 on 1. What should I do?

[Spartan1983]

fold to the flop bet with the preflop raiser behind you. Your position sucks, get out.

[aK13]

Come on.

You know what to do.

[hemstock]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on.

You know what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy fold isnt it?

[pistol78]

OOP, I fold this preflop. Is that bad?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
OOP, I fold this preflop. Is that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's what I would do.

I would probably fold KJo preflop too.

[ajm36]

I fold. Your 10 is no good and your king may be counterfeited (someone could even have Q10). The only card that really helps you is a Q. You don't have the odds to call.

[hemstock]

Why does everyone think this is an easy fold? What about implied odds?

[lautzutao]

Fold. Not even close here.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does everyone think this is an easy fold? What about implied odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're being bet into on the flop with the PFR yet to act behind you. Implied odds push you to a call of the first bet on the flop, but once it's two back to you, I think your K outs are gone, you're trapped between aggressors, and it looks likely that the flop will be capped meaning you're paying 3 bets to see the turn (getting just over 5:1 from the pot) and it's going to be tough making up enough bets.

[WalkAmongUs]

You should be folding this PF in this situation. K10 is a TRAP hand along with KJ. Its definitely -EV to call a raise here. On the flop you should definitely fold for the reason Bozlax mentioned.

[hemstock]

So I want just 2.5BB more to make up on the turn and the river which makes it "not even close" the other way right?

[FlopMe]

I wouldn't call pre-flop with KTo. I'm calling with KTs though. I have to fold to the SBs bet on the flop because it's very likely the pre-flop raiser is going to raise the flop bet from the SB and you're trapped in the middle.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
So I want just 2.5BB more to make up on the turn and the river which makes it "not even close" the other way right?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop is capped, you're getting 5:1 from the pot, on an 11:1 draw (4 outs, if we assume that your K outs are fouled, somehow). So, you have to make up ~18SB (9BB) on the turn and river, right?

If the flop isn't capped it's obviously closer, but I think that it's unlikely SB just calls given that he bet into a field being closed by the PFR.

IMO you have to fold a weak draw like this when someone bets and the preflop raiser has not acted yet. As played, I fold when it's two back to me.

[WalkAmongUs]

Just don't call with hands like this in these situations and you'll never have to worry about what to do postflop. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

* grunch *

And the reason Hero called a early position raiser and two cold callers with KT off is????? Oops, sorry, the question is on the flop.

The question is what did SB 3-bet the flop with? AJ, KJ, QJ, probably not JJ but possible especially if he is passive preflop. If he IS passive preflop we have to include AA, and KK. Throw QQ, TT, even 99 as well. Can you put him on overcards AK, AQ, KQ?? Or KT?? What does UTG+2 have? What are his early position raise standards?? If you cap do you get someone to fold gaining a 10% pot equity increase and/or maybe a free card on the turn??? Calling really sucks in this situation so you have to pretty much fold and give up the pot equity you have (which could be as high as $2.50 or $3.00 now) OR cap it which costs $1.50 when you don't have the odds and you have to fear what happens on the turn if both of your Villians stay in. If one of these guys folds you probably pick up a $1.50 or so in pot equity so I guess if there is a chance in three (1:2) that you fold one of these guys or that you can get a free card then it's worth it, otherwise muck.

[hemstock]

Well I dont think I should care about what they have. I don't have a hand right now, but I'm drawing to the nuts. i have to hit one of my four outs to continue. I don't think I have to even bother putting them on hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Well I dont think I should care about what they have. I don't have a hand right now, but I'm drawing to the nuts. i have to hit one of my four outs to continue. I don't think I have to even bother putting them on hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to respectfully disagree. If I understand all these books that I am reading it is essential, if you want to exploit all of the edges in the game, that you try and put your opponents on a hand range and that you use this information to make the correct decisions based on an estimeat of pot equity and the chances of winning relative to the pot odds and the number of cards that possibly make your hand or destroy it.

You are correct that one of four Qs will give you the nut straight if one comes on the turn. But do you have 4 outs?? What about redraws?? Q on the turn, followed T on the river. Making jamming AK preflop and on the flop worth it for one of our villians. What about catching a Q on the turn followed by another 9 on river. Making 99 or JJ look pretty goods as well?? Alternatively what about AJ? TPBK, not bad now, but not good if a King and a blank hits. What is the probability you are up against AJ, QJ, A9s, even A4s, JTs??? Wouldn't most of your opponents play the flop in the way yours did?? Why not one with AJ and the other with QJs?? Correct play here is to try and drive a hand like Kx out. Increases their pot equity. At the micro limits, would it unheard of to try and bluff with AQ diamonds or clubs?? Might it even be correct if they could put you on the possibility of KTo?? I cannot pretend to be able to make these judgements correctly at the table yet, (and perhaps I went to far here) but the reason that I spend so much time considering the possibilities and working with PokerStove, etc., is that I believe (wrongly or rightly) that experts can and do make these judgement profitably.

Can we get a more experienced player to comment???