TT capped pot

[cold_cash]

Online, 6 handed

UTG - Uknown. I have 10 hands with him, but he's folded all of them. He has yet to raise pre-flop.

CO - Also unknown, first hand. He posted a blind.

UTG raises, I 3-bet w/ T/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 1 fold, CO (poster) caps, Button and blinds fold, UTG calls, I call.

3 to the flop, 13.5 small bets.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked around.

3 to the turn, 6.5 big bets.

Turn: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG bets, I raise (?), CO folds, UTG calls.

Heads up to the river, 10 big bets.

River: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG checks.

How much do I suck/rule?

How about the river play?

[Stealthy]

If I have raised the turn, which I would, I have done so for a free showdown. I check behind here I don't want to face a 3 bet that I cannot call so wimp out.

[istewart]

I like the turn. Epitome or raise or fold I guess you could say. He'd probably play QQ-77 the same way (kinda doubt he would donk here with an AQ-type hand). River looks like a bet to me. If he has ace-high he's calling very frequently and he'll call with all pairs. You'll feel gay when he shows up with AA occasionally after he missed a flop check/raise and got terrified on the turn, but hey /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

I think the limit is fairly important too. I'm guessing it was 3/6, though.

[MrWookie47]

I'd probably fold that turn. You're ahead of exactly zero of the typical capping hands. Now, granted, he checked the flop, meaning he might fold QQ/JJ for you. However, you still have those other guys to worry about.

As you played it, man, I don't know. Is this guy passive enough to just call with a K here rather than 3bet the turn? Oh, wait. He's tight. Any hand he raised preflop with and he called your turn raise with is either beating you and not folding or behind you and not calling. This is a good river check.

[cold_cash]

3/6

I figured on the turn the CO either had me totally crushed or at the very least had some overcards to my Tens.

When UTG bet out I really didn't know how to play it. I figured if I raised and either guy 3-bet I could get away, and I could maybe get the CO to fold some overcards in the process. I was also thinking I might be able to get to a showdown with those two bets, although I'm not totally sure about the river play. (I didn't know how many worse hands would call, compared to how often he has a better hand, etc.)

After the turn I figured UTG had a pocket pair that may or may not have been better than mine.

Anyway, I checked behind and he showed 99.

[Disconnected]

This may be totally weak, but I think that I would fold the turn. Between the possibility that UTG whiffed on a flop check-raise and CO being timid with a hand that still beats us, I think I'm behind here too many times.

That said, if you're staying in here, I think the raise is the right way to go. If you're reraised, do you let it go?

On the river, I would check behind. I don't see him calling with a whole lot you beat, and there are also aren't too many better hands that I would count on him to fold. Plus, by checking behind, you will now have a data point on him.

[lautzutao]

I love it. nh

EDIT: I bet/fold the river.

[MrWookie47]

I just about went back to edit my post saying that 99 would be about the only hand he could have that you beat and that might call a river bet. No sense in being results oriented, though. I think betting the river is still -EV. I'd expect to see JJ or QQ just as often.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I just about went back to edit my post saying that 99 would be about the only hand he could have that you beat and that might call a river bet. No sense in being results oriented, though. I think betting the river is still -EV. I'd expect to see JJ or QQ just as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

This also might be a good argument for folding the turn, too. (Although UTG just opened and then called the cap, so his range is probably wider than I'm giving him credit for with this statement.)

[pistol78]

I might actually bet this river. For 2 reasons.

1. He might call with a PP pair you beat.
2. He might put you on a K and fold a hand that beats you like QQ,JJ(Although this chance is small, I think it is worth it considering on the river there are about 10BB in the pot)

Also I dont think he has AA as he would have bet that flop. Fastplay is the new slow play.

[hemstock]

I like it only if you go for a free showdown.

[Nfinity]

You should have probably bet this flop maybe.

When your bet into on the turn I just call down, if he is bluffing you don't want him to stop, if he isn't and you are behind in some way you don't want to give him an opportunity to 3-bet.

[pistol78]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have probably bet this flop maybe.

When your bet into on the turn I just call down, if he is bluffing you don't want him to stop, if he isn't and you are behind in some way you don't want to give him an opportunity to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also thought about this myself. However, wouldn't it be worth the raise to knock CO off some overcards?

[MrWookie47]

I agree that I don't want to be 3bet, but if I'm choosing to continue in this large pot, I want the guy behind me to fold his QQ or JJ. When he checks that flop after capping, it's obvious he has QQ, JJ, or KK. Since the K dropped, KK just got 1/3 as likely. Sure, he might fold behind us, but I don't want to give him an excuse to call.

[McGahee]

NH - fairly easy river check. Because you raised the turn he's very unlikely to call with A high and you're behind the >50% of his range of PP hands.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have probably bet this flop maybe.

When your bet into on the turn I just call down, if he is bluffing you don't want him to stop, if he isn't and you are behind in some way you don't want to give him an opportunity to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being 3-bet really isn't a concern, because if it happens, no matter who does it, I'm surrendering.

I think raising is better than calling because I don't want the CO getting 8:1 on what could easily be a 6 outer. I would much rather he fold, but if he's going to call I would rather he did it getting 4:1 instead of 8:1.

[Duerig]

When villain calls your turn raise, he is probably going to see a showdown. This means he probably has AK, KQ, AA - 99. That hand range sucks to be up against. You might get him to fold QQ - 99...

AA (6)
AK (8)
KQ (8)
QQ (6)
JJ (6)
TT (1)
99 (6)

19/41 = 46% of the time he has a hand he might fold. I'm gonna guess and say that you'll get him to fold one of those hands (if he has one) 15% of the time.

0.46 * 0.15 = 0.069

You need this to work 1/11 = 0.09 to profit. It looks like a river bet isn't profitable here. I'd check behind and hope you're up against 99.

[cold_cash]

I can't say for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me if 77 and 88 were in there too.

[pistol78]

[ QUOTE ]
When villain calls your turn raise, he is probably going to see a showdown. This means he probably has AK, KQ, AA - 99. That hand range sucks to be up against. You might get him to fold QQ - 99...

AA (6)
AK (8)
KQ (8)
QQ (6)
JJ (6)
TT (1)
99 (6)

19/41 = 46% of the time he has a hand he might fold. I'm gonna guess and say that you'll get him to fold one of those hands (if he has one) 15% of the time.

0.46 * 0.15 = 0.069

You need this to work 1/11 = 0.09 to profit. It looks like a river bet isn't profitable here. I'd check behind and hope you're up against 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we want him to fold 99?

Can you re-do your calculations but omit 99 and TT I am really curious?

[SlantNGo]

I would bet the flop, then call a raise and fold the turn UI. Given your flop check, the turn raise is good, and you must check the river.

[cold_cash]

We don't want him to fold 99, but he still might.

(I think it was just lumped in with hands he might fold, not hands we necessarily want him to fold.)

[Duerig]

[ QUOTE ]

Why do we want him to fold 99?


[/ QUOTE ]

We don't. But that should make us lean even farther towards checking behind.

EDIT: Er wait, maybe not...

[pistol78]

becasue If I do your numbers but omit 99 and TT I find that a river bet IS profitable.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
becasue If I do your numbers but omit 99 and TT I find that a river bet IS profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does eliminating one of the few hands I beat make a bet more profitable?

[cold_cash]

What makes you wanna bet the flop?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like betting the flop here. On a k-high flop we're crushed by CO's typical capping range, let alone the chance that we're behind the pfr as well. I presume you were planning to c/f the flop, Cash?

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
What makes you wanna bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad choice now that I think it through... my original logic went something like this:

I want to continue in this hand. The pot is huge right now, and I would strongly consider continuing in the hand drawing only to the set even. It looks like we're behind a typical capping range for CO. However, we have no read on CO, and hands like AQ, AJ, and 99 may very well be hands that he caps there (or just first hand excitement, since he posted). If he caps one of those hands, he probably raises it on the flop as well. This allows us to knock out potentially stronger hands that UTG may hold (QQ, JJ, as well as hands with many outs to beat us, i.e. 2 overcard hands like AJ).

I don't think I'd do this without a read... investing 3 more big bets into this pot when AQ, AJ, 99, etc. comprise probably less than 10% of his capping range sounds like suicide on second thought. I would, however, strongly consider peeling the flop on implied odds if CO bet.

[TomBrooks]

Bet the river for value. If raised, fold and don't blame me. Really - you might as well check, because he's not likely to call with anything you beat.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the flop, then call a raise and fold the turn UI. Given your flop check, the turn raise is good, and you must check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I might take a shot betting this flop occasionally against a very aggressive preflop three bettor. Why not fold to a raise though?

Wait, I don't bet this flop because of the two flush. I don't want to confuse anyone. With a rainbow, non-straight flop it is clear you are repping the King so the meaning of any response you get will be more clear.

[Entity]

You played this hand really well.

[therockofgibraltar]

This is how I would play it. If he 3-bets the turn you fold, right?