Well? ($25 stars turbo)

[bawcerelli]

PokerStars Game #2936978173: Tournament #14489948, Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2005/10/31 - 02:57:52 (ET)
Table '14489948 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: gentleman55 (12327 in chips)
Seat 6: chiefsfan73 (323 in chips)
Seat 8: Linderhead (850 in chips)
gentleman55: posts the ante 50
chiefsfan73: posts the ante 50
Linderhead: posts the ante 50
chiefsfan73: posts small blind 273 and is all-in
Linderhead: posts big blind 800 and is all-in
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gentleman55 [4s 8d]
gentleman55:

call this? or fold?

results below:
















i folded, bb won, knocking out sb with a pair of 7's. i woulda won with pair of 8's. guy came all the way back with about 10 AQo to win the tourney. wtf.

[bluefeet]

triple up shortie: no worries
double(+) up BB: still >5:1 HU

looks pretty close to "any two" - 84o would be close enough for me

ps. nice domination btw!!! (prior to the debacle of course /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[bennies]

Fold. What would you defend, your ante?

[Kirkrrr]

This fold is absolutely atrocious. You have a chance to put this away for the price of 1 BB, with both players already all-in.
Downside: Risking t800/t12K
Upside: Winning 1st.
If you lose, the t800 will be inconsequential to your stack. I'm calling here even if the software somehow f'ed up so bad that I only got dealt 1 card.

Read this approximately 100 times until you begin to see what he's saying. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Board=singletable&Number=26 10396&Searchpage=1&Main=2610396&Words=+Gigabet&top ic=&Search=true#Post2610396)

Kirk

[tigerite]

It's not even owt to do with the whole 'block concept' of Gigabet's though - this is a call without question.

[bennies]

Would you please explain this? I really don't understand why hero should choose to put in chips with sub zero cards when he is not pot committed.

[Kirkrrr]

I tried to figure out what "owt" means and finally failed. Enlighten me.

And I actually think it's got a lot to do with it. Given enough upside if you win on one hand, balanced by acceptable downside on the other, your cards matter only so much.

Will Hero be an underdog to two random hands? - Yes, of course.
Is the call "+EV" strictly speaking? - No.
But this is where cEV and $EV completely diverge, and you HAVE to be able to see this situations when they arise, and do the right thing.

I hope I'm making sense.

Kirk

[tigerite]

Owt = anything, English slang.

I'm pretty sure that risking 800 chips to win 800 + 273 + 150 = 1223 and the added +$EV of winning the tournament makes this a call. Of course I haven't done the ICM of it but I'd be amazed if it's a fold given all the added bonuses of winning the hand.

[pzhon]

This is an easy fold.

Some people seem to be confused about the odds you are getting. It is as though you posted a big blind of 50, and a short stack with 6.5 BB pushes blindly on the button, and the SB pushes for 17 BB. Are you getting good odds on the call of 16 BB? No. Should you call with 84o? No.

You will lose chips on average if you call. You will win 24.4% of the main pot and 39.6% of the side pot on average, getting a return of 654 chips on your 800 investment. That's not a good deal.

It's not your responsibility to try to knock people out.

[ QUOTE ]
Would you please explain this? I really don't understand why hero should choose to put in chips with sub zero cards when he is not pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he has 12,300 chips and the worst case scenario is he loses 850. He's still on the ridiculous big stack even if he loses... Basically the 850 chips is worth way less to him than it is to the villain, so he's getting a "good price" even at long odds.

[GtrHtr]

Insta-call and its not even close.

To quote Scuba, "This decision is easy if you do the math."

Definite call here. Forget maths engage brain. You have everything to gain and for the sake of 1BB you fold.

ULTRA-LAME !

Even if you had lost the hand you would still be roughly 11.5-2 as opposed to 12.3-1.2(chiplead) both of which anyone would/should take without batting an eyelid.

Think of that 1BB as an investment. Best case/Possible - win everything. Worst case/Probable lose 1BB. If that isn't a gamble worth taking I don't know what is.

[gisb0rne]

You will likely win everything regardless of whether you call or fold. You can't say "win everything" as an upside when it's going to happen anyway.

I'm not saying that calling isn't correct but the reasoning some people seem to be using is flawed.

[chunk]

[ QUOTE ]
You will likely win everything regardless of whether you call or fold. You can't say "win everything" as an upside when it's going to happen anyway.

I'm not saying that calling isn't correct but the reasoning some people seem to be using is flawed.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, when you fold you do not hurt your position at all
when you call you do. They or he are both all in next hand anyway. maybe you'll have a kick ass 95o next hand /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
You will likely win everything regardless of whether you call or fold. You can't say "win everything" as an upside when it's going to happen anyway.

I'm not saying that calling isn't correct but the reasoning some people seem to be using is flawed.

[/ QUOTE ]

geez...I really am lost on this thread. I cannot comprehend how this is a clear call to most. I havent crunched the numbers, but I dont see why this is so clear...I'd fold here personally, but maybe its a mistake.

I looked at it again...I realize this is basically a HU hand. I thought SB had more...calling is reasonable...there's not much going wrong here (unless you let a guy come back on you HU and finish 2nd! bwahahahah /images/graemlins/wink.gif )

[bawcerelli]

well i'm not really sure what the consensus is. in this same situation again, i'm probably folding again. it feels like i'd just be giving one of them free chips, essentially a free double up.

changed my mind. not gonna worry about sb tripling up, and call because i've got odds to call BB with any two.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Insta-call and its not even close.

To quote Scuba, "This decision is easy if you do the math."

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a professional mathematician. I've done the math, and this is a clear fold.

[bawcerelli]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Insta-call and its not even close.

To quote Scuba, "This decision is easy if you do the math."

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a professional mathematician. I've done the math, and this is a clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting. do you mind posting some of the work you did?

[Kirkrrr]

You're so busy looking at your numbers that you don't see the big picture. The numbers have nothing to do with this. In certain cases, you can and should take a -EV gamble if a) You have a lot of chips sitting in your stack that are useless since they have no "double-up" value, so they're basically there just for your comfort level, and b) winning the gamble will put you in a very favorable situation -in this particular case winning the tourney- while losing will leave you no worse off than you were before.

So tell me, how is this not a call? Seriously, use the link I provided. If you grasp what Gigabet is saying, it will vastly improve your game if you think that was a fold.

Kirk

[valenzuela]

WTF!!!!!! I call with a deuce that has no suit at all, really,edit: lol...i thought we wre on the BB, I think Im folding here

[gisb0rne]

[ QUOTE ]
You're so busy looking at your numbers that you don't see the big picture. The numbers have nothing to do with this. In certain cases, you can and should take a -EV gamble if a) You have a lot of chips sitting in your stack that are useless since they have no "double-up" value, so they're basically there just for your comfort level, and b) winning the gamble will put you in a very favorable situation -in this particular case winning the tourney- while losing will leave you no worse off than you were before.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I've already pointed out, "winning the gamble" does not dramatically change the innevitable outcome like you seem to imply. You are highly likely to win the tournament even if you fold. In fact, your chance of winning the tournament might be higher if you fold. So gambling in this situation does gains you nothing. It is a purely EV decision.

Edit: I read the Gigabet thread linked. It doesn't apply here. For it to apply your gain/loss has to have some kind of effect on the future decisions you make. If you win this hand...there are no more decisions. Thus it's a purely +/- EV question. In addition, his theory might not even be correct and there certainly wasn't any consensus on it's precise meaning.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
You're so busy looking at your numbers that you don't see the big picture. The numbers have nothing to do with this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nonsense.

[ QUOTE ]
In certain cases, you can and should take a -EV gamble

[/ QUOTE ]
You mean -EChip. This is both -EChip and -EV.

I love it when people think they are obligated to make idiotic calls just because they have a lot of chips.

[ QUOTE ]
So tell me, how is this not a call?

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you understand why you should not make -EChip calls as the big stack heads up? This is similar.

[ QUOTE ]
If you grasp what Gigabet is saying, it will vastly improve your game if you think that was a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand it much better than you if you think it applies here.