AJ - keep bullying my way on the river?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[LoaferGee12]

Yeah this is alright. Slim river bet but a lot of guys will call down here with a T or J. Easy fold to check-raise.

i think your betting for value here.

you would most likely have heard from a K here by now

so, either he missed a draw which is now irrelevant (as you arent getting any more money from him)
or, he has a weaker J or decent T that will look you up on the river

the checkraise potential is negligent, so your comparing 1-1 and need him to have a K or QQ&lt;50% of the time (in comparison to other made hands).

i think you easily have that here.

[istewart]

Read helps, but it's fine as it stands IMO.

I agree with that you should probably value bet here and just pray the guy didn't call from the small blind with something like K4o. This hand seems to scream draw that didn't get there, but you never know.

[Weatherhead03]

Good value bet but make sure to fold if checkraised.

[Slim Pickens]

I'm not seeing a lot of worse hands that call your river bet. Only the backdoor flush hit on the river, so it looks like a classic case of "your opponent probably missed his draw, and won't call a bet, but if he didn't, you're getting checkraised and lose one or two bets, depending on if you believe him or not." Check behind.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Pretty easy value bet, he'll fold with a busted flush draw some of the time, but we'll see a wide variety of odd calls here.

[Slim Pickens]

I also forget how people can get to the river with a crappy second or third pair with no idea where they stand. Always giving my opponents too much credit...

[kai]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your betting for value here.

you would most likely have heard from a K here by now

so, either he missed a draw which is now irrelevant (as you arent getting any more money from him)
or, he has a weaker J or decent T that will look you up on the river

the checkraise potential is negligent, so your comparing 1-1 and need him to have a K or QQ&lt;50% of the time (in comparison to other made hands).

i think you easily have that here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me try to break this down:

Hands Hero is ahead of that may call:
JQ 8
J9 8
J8 8
AT 9
QT 11 (not hearts)
------------------
44


Hands hero is ahead of that dont call:
89 15 (not hearts)
Q8 15 (not hearts)
Q7 15 (not hearts)
6c7c 1
7c8c 1
AcXc 8
----------
55

Hands hero is behind that will not check raise:
K7 11 (not hearts)
K8 11 (not hearts)
K9 11 (not hearts)
--------------------
33

Hands hero is behind that may check raise
Q9 16
KT 9
TJ 6
KJ 6
AQ 12
Ah9h 1
Qh8h 1
Qh7h 1
Kh9h 1
Kh8h 1
Kh7h 1
---------
55
now given that thats a strange way to play some of these lets multiply them by 0.25 to represent the villan not playing these hands that way very often.

So we have
(44-33-13.75)/145.75 = -0.02 if we dont call check raise
or
(44-33-27.5)/145.75 = -0.1 if we call check raise

So i think we should check behind. I never really did a math post before tho, and maybe somebody disagrees with me on the hand ranges. But I certainly think that if it is positive that its VERY thin.

i disagree because they arent weighted

J8 will most likely not be played like this, JQ will

therefore its more likely the vil holds JQ than J8, regardless of combinations

I think betting the river is fine. If you check, you're going to call anyway, and betting and folding to a raise costs the same but gives him a chance to fold something that might beat you.

[POKhER]

But it also gives him a chance to bluff or raise and you must fold... missing a SD you may win.

With no reads, This guy could be tricky... No one knows.

I personally check behind.

[lautzutao]

nh

[kai]

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree because they arent weighted

J8 will most likely not be played like this, JQ will

therefore its more likely the vil holds JQ than J8, regardless of combinations

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to see someone with more experience callculate this out properly if one of you has the time. Thanks!

I haven't read the other posts, but I'm sure someone already mentioned to end the river action at "Hero..?" for better responses.

As to the play, I like it as long as you can fold to a raise.

[DCWildcat]

reeeeads necessary in all shorthanded games. this is starting to be one of my pet peeves.

[lautzutao]

I don't think you need a read to bet this river. Though just looking at the action I can tell you he's passive, and probably a calling station.

[DCWildcat]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you need a read to bet this river. Though just looking at the action I can tell you he's passive, and probably a calling station.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I saw a river raise. I'm dumb. Yes, I bet the river.

He might not be a calling station. Lots of possible draws he can does this with-- lots of clubs hands (suited connectors etc.), as well as some open ended draws