minus 581 bets. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 12:23 AM

Since september first i'm down the following amount of bets at party poker. Not including skins. I'm doing well enough on other sites (up over 1100 bets...) but this run at party is just sickening.

-107 at 100/200
-110 at 50/100
-94 at 30/60
-95 at 20/40
-95 at 10/20
I know this equals 500 but from peak til bottom it's 581. Yikes. I rule at poker.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y212/bicyclekick/600bets.jpg

tongni

10-31-2005, 12:31 AM

Rigged. It doesn't really help that the 50 and 100 aren't really that good of games that often.

La Brujita

10-31-2005, 12:33 AM

That is absolutely brutal. I have been playing with you a decent amount and you have been playing well (but you already know that).

NLSoldier

10-31-2005, 12:37 AM

Unfortunately I still have you beat.

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/1020/suicidetime7ss.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 12:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Rigged. It doesn't really help that the 50 and 100 aren't really that good of games that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right and I haven't been playing in them as of late and when i did play it was usually when I fealt it was a good game.

Klepton

10-31-2005, 01:04 AM

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

baronzeus

10-31-2005, 01:27 AM

i dont think the poker gods care what site you are on.

bobdibble

10-31-2005, 01:38 AM

Why do you think your downswing is so large?

Aytumious

10-31-2005, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

They flipped the switch on him, clearly.

baronzeus

10-31-2005, 02:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

sthief09

10-31-2005, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's about as much of a downswing as me taking my last 52 weeks and putting my worst 10 together and saying I'm on a 1000 or whatever bet downswing

phish

10-31-2005, 02:25 AM

That's really bizarre. I remember many years ago when I first started playing poker at a private club (15/30), I was winning pretty good overall but yet on Saturdays, I was at one point down over 300 bets. My conclusion at the time was that something was happening on Saturday's that affected my winrate at the game. So I stopped playing Sat.

Could your results be due solely to variance? Or is there something else also going on? Maybe your style of play isn't meshing well with Party's games. Maybe a little paranoia is warranted. Maybe someone has slipped a Trojan into your computer that transmits your hole cards? I know there's another thread somewhere here that talks about that, tho I don't know how reliable it is.

bobdibble

10-31-2005, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

His play at party is, and not by a trivial ammount.

As we all know, the general texture of a game varies from location to location (live and online.) I was wondering if maybe something about Bike's style of play changed when he started playing really high on other sites and thinks he may not have re-adjusted to the party game.

Or maybe he was just not playing his A game on party, etc...

Or maybe he cashed out recently... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

In any case, I'm sure Bike has thought about the reasons for his downswing at Party, and I was curious what he thinks they may be...

Evan

10-31-2005, 05:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]
Seriously. Sorry BK, but you really missed with this post.

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 07:31 AM

I don't know. If you want you can say I'm not a winning player at those 50/100 and 100/200 games and so those bets are just losing bets not downswing bets, and I'm sure I"m not a big winner in that game, but I got sucked out on so many times in those games it was incredible.

Maybe account a few bets to playing too many tables while talking to people on aim. I never get pissed these days at what's going on so not 'f this' kind of tilt. Maybe a little gunshy but really not even that so bad. And like I said I'm winning on other sites/skins so it's not totally horrible. I have lost 6 of the last 7 days though so that's getting a little sickening.

Just tons and tons of days like today...1k hands 35/42 went/won at showdown stats.

Luckily I don't need the money for anything and my bankroll is super inflated for the limits I'm currently playing and I think that helps me handle it a lot better...but it still makes poker dreadful kinda and just not fun...so it's easier to play civ 4 instead.

DeeJ

10-31-2005, 07:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so it's easier to play civ 4 instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was gonna say that civ 4 doesn't pay as well, but then I compared zero with -580 and actually you'd have been better off playing civ 4 rather than the Party (bots?) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

jason_t

10-31-2005, 07:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

sublime

10-31-2005, 10:16 AM

have you ever had anything worse than 200+ at anything higher than 5/10 prior to this? Just wondering as your rise in limits was quick to say the least.

losing sucks btw. it messes with your head so friggin much, hang in there man.

10-31-2005, 10:21 AM

Not to belabor an issue that keeps coming up, but to what extent do you think this is a function of the opposition improving rather than just running bad?

sublime

10-31-2005, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's about as much of a downswing as me taking my last 52 weeks and putting my worst 10 together and saying I'm on a 1000 or whatever bet downswing

[/ QUOTE ]

Josh P ?

Blah

obsidian

10-31-2005, 01:02 PM

I was wondering why you were sitting at my 10/20 table. Or maybe you were sitting at it when I joined. Either way, the table sucked and you should have left it. I left after I noticed this which was right after I dropped a bunch in a set over set hand.

Subfallen

10-31-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I still have you beat.

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/1020/suicidetime7ss.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?? Is this graph forged??

If it's not...I'm so, so, so sorry Mr. NLSoldier.

AceHigh

10-31-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

I wonder if there is something different about Party that is causing you downswing on Party and not other sites. Taking a swag, for instance, if BK always plays 6 or more tables when he is on Party, but often only plays 4 or less when he is on a combination of sites. It seems to me he might have a hard time staying in the "good" Party games if he plays too many tables.

bobbyi

10-31-2005, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering why you were sitting at my 10/20 table.

[/ QUOTE ]

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering why you were sitting at my 10/20 table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played 10/20 6max a couple times when at friends on their laptops cause I don't have any software and just feel like relaxing with poker. That's most of it.

Last night all the 30 games sucked really bad and I just fealt in the mood to go dominate some games...so I opened up some 10/20 tables and dropped 85 bets instead lol.

DpR

10-31-2005, 03:10 PM

Man, I know how you feel and its gotta be even worse for you. Oct, has been my worst month ever, even though it was more break even for me. It seems to be suck out month at PP.

Most days this month I have been laughing (with insanity) as I get beat on yet again. I logged 5 winning days this month and SD stats of 38/30 were quite regular.

Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through.

I take some solace in the fact that I can see the unluckiness in PT. Like winning only 1BB wih AA and KK. Your downswing is however rather large even for variance. I wish I could mention some things to help, except when I was at your table I did not notice you really get out of line at all.

Good luck.

jason_t

10-31-2005, 03:20 PM

omg NLSoldier. DeathDonkey told me about this when we were out last night and I nearly cried for you. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

phish

10-31-2005, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think your downswing is so large?

[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a downswing if you are up 700 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's about as much of a downswing as me taking my last 52 weeks and putting my worst 10 together and saying I'm on a 1000 or whatever bet downswing

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it is not the same thing.

To illustrate by example: If someone says he has had very good results, but that he plays a variety of games and he's found that playing omaha he's suffered a downswing of 400 bets, or that at 200/400 he's suffered some big downswings but not at smaller limits, no one would say that because he's winning overall then he should ignore it.

Yes, if you are simply identifying bad days/weeks or whatever and putting these together solely because they're bad, then that is a meaningless stat. But if you group together any number of sessions on any other criteria (it may be by game, limit, day of the week, site, casino, etc) and look at those results, those stats are meaningful and sometimes very revelatory. In fact, you can even, for the sake of analysis, pretend that those are the only games you play and these are the results, ignoring your results in other games.

In fact, failure to correctly identify and interpret such 'local' results can be very costly. After all, we are simply interpreting 'local' results when we say we can't beat the 100/200 game but do fine at 30/60, or that we suck at stud but excel at hold em.

From personal experience: I used to go to the casino and while waiting for my regular game(s) would oftentimes spend time playing smaller non-holdem games like 20/40 stud or 15/30 stud hi/lo. But because I keep good records, I saw that I was losing thousands in those games. i finally figured that I simply don't take those small games seriously enough to beat them, so I no longer play them anymore. But if I had just looked at my overall results, I would not even have noticed the money I was losing at those games and would have continued to leak there unnecessarily.

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, if you are simply identifying bad days/weeks or whatever and putting these together solely because they're bad, then that is a meaningless stat. But if you group together any number of sessions on any other criteria (it may be by game, limit, day of the week, site, casino, etc) and look at those results, those stats are meaningful and sometimes very revelatory. In fact, you can even, for the sake of analysis, pretend that those are the only games you play and these are the results, ignoring your results in other games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. My overall bb/100 since sept first over the 81k hands i've played is still .93 so really it preobably doesn't mean as much as one would think.

And I have a 400k hand db that would show I'm doing well long term.

I just thought it was kinda a sick run on one site.

10-31-2005, 04:00 PM

I have also noticed that my Party stats are significantly worse than my stats on other sites. I'm not sure what it is, but it could be do to your style not working well with the type of players at Party as opposed to the type of playes at other sites. Or it could truly just be coincience and just a downswing at Party and an upswing at others. But that's all I can think of.

10-31-2005, 04:00 PM

you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have no clue.

Subfallen

10-31-2005, 04:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b.

Justin A

10-31-2005, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for posting about something you know nothing about.

MNpoker

10-31-2005, 04:53 PM

Where do you get those graphs?

Sponger15SB

10-31-2005, 04:56 PM

Dear BK,

You suck at poker.

Love,
Sponger

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you get those graphs?

[/ QUOTE ]

https://sourceforge.net/projects/pokergrapher/ I think.

jason_t

10-31-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

The things people say on this site astound me. So many people take shots at people they don't know in situations they know nothing about in spots they never would in real life just to make themselves feel better.

Get rid of your [censored] ego.

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meantioned what you said to james282 and he laughed and said "you've had more variance than any great player i know."

Somehow I've played 500k hands of mid/high limit games...at least half of them short-handed and somehow I don't know variance? Right.

brick

10-31-2005, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
my bankroll is super inflated for the limits I'm currently

[/ QUOTE ]

pull a mike l, buy a house.

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
pull a mike i, buy a house.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Mike L, and yeah, I'll be doing that in the spring/early summer.

brick

10-31-2005, 05:56 PM

That's great to hear. I liken this time in poker to the tuplip bubble, gold rush, or internet boom. Be one of the people who cashes in.

baronzeus

10-31-2005, 06:02 PM

just out of random curiosity, how do your showdown stats at party compare to other sites over these hands?

Bosox

10-31-2005, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play NL. More control.

sublime

10-31-2005, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pull a mike i, buy a house.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Mike L, and yeah, I'll be doing that in the spring/early summer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought it was mike i also

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play NL. More control.

[/ QUOTE ]

That wasn't my quote....it was dpr's.

DpR

10-31-2005, 07:10 PM

I am calcing this in my head, but I think this is a -3.3s.d. event for a 1.5/18 player in 40k hands.

So as with any event of course it is possible it is variance, but it is pretty unlucky if it is so. Of course this month sample is not random as you have selected your worst month so this stats is not as meaningful as many people would like it to be. Nevertheless, being over 1100 BB below expectation is pretty big swing.

Seems like as good a time as any to evaluate some plays.

Would be interesting to run the sim to see how many players out of 1000 1.5/18 players would experience this bad a swing in 500k hands.

billyjex

10-31-2005, 07:24 PM

so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 07:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

NLfool

10-31-2005, 07:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber.

It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 07:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a belated joke

[/ QUOTE ]

I promise this is no joke.

willie

10-31-2005, 08:29 PM

bk, thank you for making me feel better about my cold run at sngs....

Justin A

10-31-2005, 08:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber.

It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

10-31-2005, 08:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since september first i'm down the following amount of bets at party poker. Not including skins. I'm doing well enough on other sites (up over 1100 bets...) but this run at party is just sickening.

-107 at 100/200
-110 at 50/100
-94 at 30/60
-95 at 20/40
-95 at 10/20
I know this equals 500 but from peak til bottom it's 581. Yikes. I rule at poker.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y212/bicyclekick/600bets.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
You again? I told you not to call me unless it's an emergency.

surfdoc

10-31-2005, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my bankroll is super inflated for the limits I'm currently

[/ QUOTE ]

pull a mike l, buy a house.

[/ QUOTE ]

And some mutual funds, and anything else that you can. Passive income is goot. Then again, you know this already.

Evan

10-31-2005, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

Justin A

10-31-2005, 09:06 PM

JinX11

10-31-2005, 09:10 PM

Good heavens, man...I want to cry for you. I just called my girlfriend in here to show her this so that she'd understand what I mean by "swingy".

Yo, you wanna kick my ass heads-up or something - might get you back going. Seriously. OTOH, think of how good the upswing is gonna feel.... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Best of luck, dude.

NLSoldier

10-31-2005, 09:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I still have you beat.

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/1020/suicidetime7ss.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?? Is this graph forged??

If it's not...I'm so, so, so sorry Mr. NLSoldier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not forged /images/graemlins/frown.gif

NLSoldier

10-31-2005, 09:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
omg NLSoldier. DeathDonkey told me about this when we were out last night and I nearly cried for you. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/heart.gif

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 09:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, it does if we assume that BK was playing well and that he was a winner in the games.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this graph pretty much shoes that (only about the last year or so...from my current db):
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y212/bicyclekick/400khands.jpg

It's kinda amazing how during the game it feels so streaky (and it is) but when you get into the bigger picture you can barely notice the blips. I was going to wait til 500k hands to post this but now seems like a decent time.

Justin A

10-31-2005, 09:43 PM

Stop bragging. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 09:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Stop bragging. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You get 1 extra piece of candy tonight cause you got that in there first. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Ulysses

10-31-2005, 09:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]

It shows that even over the sample size of all your play, your results correlate far less diretly to your skill level than people would like to think. People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.

protocol

10-31-2005, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]

People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone have the link to this? Thanks.

Sponger15SB

10-31-2005, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

dankhank

10-31-2005, 10:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone have the link to this? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=3452933&page=&vc=1)

Evan

10-31-2005, 10:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

Maulik

10-31-2005, 10:45 PM

where did you get the program that creates this graph? I'm assuming its a PT add-on?

rewt75

10-31-2005, 10:48 PM

I will post this even though I realize no one really cares about micro limit players.

I just finished my worst month ever of poker in 16 months of playing. It began one day after the Party split. Over 75K hands of 1/2 short, I was a 3BB/100 winner with a few handfuls of 7-9K hand breakeven streaks and your usual smattering of 100-150BB dowswings.

I continued to play the skins after Party split to finish off bonuses. During the 20K hands I played, I had downswings of 135, 250, and 100. The crowning jewel was finally finishing the bonus on the skins and hopping over to Pokerstars for a change of pace and to play the 2/4 short games. Immediate 100BB drop. Literally every time I've taken a shot at a higher limit I take it straight in the ass.

Normal stats for me are 33/57 for went to sd and won at sd.

This month since the party split:
22K hands: 33/52.5

Just gotten the [censored] kicked out of me all month. I don't even want to play anymore. October was a blur of river cards that killed my hand, missed flops and turn raises holding ace high.

Maulik

10-31-2005, 10:55 PM

i feel your pain, i feel your pain.

Sponger15SB

10-31-2005, 11:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow how original

astroglide

10-31-2005, 11:23 PM

i think it's worth noting. i've had it happen myself where i would be 6-tabling, playing an 3 tables per site. one account would get pummeled day after day, and i would have to withdraw winnings from the winning one just to keep the losing one with enough money for me to be comfortable. i've had it go on like that in both directions several times, and each time i've thought, "boy it would sure suck to have just been playing 3 tables on that account." and before somebody points out that it would be more focused, it's not really relevant. both sites had equal amounts of skill, tilt, tiltlessness, or whatever applied because it was all done at the same time. one of my dudes had an extended bad run.

i think it's more meaningful when it's looked at like that instead of when you're site-bouncing and one site has problems, there are many more variables in that instance because you've got different competition, different focus levels, etc depending on when you played.

10-31-2005, 11:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why does he always seem to whine about it?

bicyclekick

10-31-2005, 11:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why does he always seem to whine about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait a sec if I always whine about it like you say then wouldn't you know that I've had my fair share of variance?

Don't try to put it on me.

Python49

11-01-2005, 12:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Man, I know how you feel and its gotta be even worse for you. Oct, has been my worst month ever, even though it was more break even for me. It seems to be suck out month at PP.

Most days this month I have been laughing (with insanity) as I get beat on yet again. I logged 5 winning days this month and SD stats of 38/30 were quite regular.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can relate completely to everything you just said. It's been unreal. I believe yesterday I got it all in on the flop 4 times with the stone cold nuts and lost to bottom two pairs boating up... or TPTK hitting runners for the boat. You know that feeling when theres only one hand out there that beats you and since you've been running bad you just assume they have it... yep, know that all too well. Or getting KK and just playing the hand to see what type of beat you can add to the archives... yep. This month sucked for me:

http://jupiter.walagata.com/w/python49/rofl.JPG

I'm lovin it.

DcifrThs

11-01-2005, 01:03 AM

right on time.

Barron

Guthrie

11-01-2005, 11:41 AM

I hit a terrible downswing at the Stars 11s and decided it was a good time to move up. For the past two weeks I've been playing 11s and 22s side by side, two of each. I'm crushing the 22s but continue to bleed out at the 11s.

Maybe it's time to move up again.

sublime

11-01-2005, 12:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

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I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude-

its lonely at the top, BK was trying to fit in with the rest of us poker mortals. leave the man alone.

Voltron87

11-01-2005, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I still have you beat.

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/1020/suicidetime7ss.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure something else isnt at play here? you're very clearly winning for 40k hands and then very clearly losing for 40k hands, its night and day.

or am i misreading it and you just switched to bigger stakes at one point?

stillbr

11-01-2005, 01:27 PM

I wasnt gonna say anything in this thread at first because I really didnt wanna get flamed. However, I find it very hard to believe that these 600BB downswings are due simple to varience. It wasnt too long ago that davidross made a similar post & was told by alot of people that it wasnt varience, that he simply wasnt playing good enough. How can you people not even consider questioning your play when you've dropped 600 bets?

NLSoldier

11-01-2005, 03:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wasnt gonna say anything in this thread at first because I really didnt wanna get flamed. However, I find it very hard to believe that these 600BB downswings are due simple to varience. It wasnt too long ago that davidross made a similar post & was told by alot of people that it wasnt varience, that he simply wasnt playing good enough. How can you people not even consider questioning your play when you've dropped 600 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

YOu seriously think im not questioning my play?

NLSoldier

11-01-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I still have you beat.

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/1020/suicidetime7ss.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure something else isnt at play here? you're very clearly winning for 40k hands and then very clearly losing for 40k hands, its night and day.

or am i misreading it and you just switched to bigger stakes at one point?

[/ QUOTE ]

ALmost all of the winning was in the 20. I then moved to the 30, but moved back to the 20 after starting to lose in the 30. THe majority of losing is in the 20 as well. I then moved back to the 10 and coninued to lose there too.

About a third of the way into the downswing was when the party split occured. So the change in games could have had some impact, but imo the party games were softer than the party/skin combined games, initially anyways.

B Dids

11-01-2005, 03:20 PM

Voltron87

11-01-2005, 03:22 PM

i was just wondering if the some of the effects of the graph were a function of the BB y axis scale. ie if you started playing 30 60 and those BBs were worth more than the 20 40 bbs so it was off in that sense.

maybe youre playing carelessly? i never read the limit forums so i dont know anything about your game, but that did happen to me a while ago. i had been on a nice 35K stretch and just mailed it in for 20K hands, I was sort of logging on and expecting to win without really having to do much. this doesnt work.

Nigel

11-01-2005, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Rigged. It doesn't really help that the 50 and 100 aren't really that good of games that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're DERB.

He seems to have no problem crushing them, regardless of the lineup. I think he was up about 50-60k in the 50/100 the first week after the split - and it's not like he plays marathon sessions, that was only around 10k hands for that week.

jason_t

11-01-2005, 03:48 PM

The vertical axis counts number of BBs lost. So each time you lose a BB at whatever limit the vertical coordinate drops by one.

baronzeus

11-01-2005, 04:42 PM

jba

11-01-2005, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wasnt gonna say anything in this thread at first because I really didnt wanna get flamed. However, I find it very hard to believe that these 600BB downswings are due simple to varience. It wasnt too long ago that davidross made a similar post & was told by alot of people that it wasnt varience, that he simply wasnt playing good enough. How can you people not even consider questioning your play when you've dropped 600 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

consider yourself flamed.

[/ QUOTE ]

NLSoldier himself said basically the same thing in pokerbob's 300 bb club thread, and it looks like he's agreeing with it here. flaming is unnecessary IMHO.

Subfallen

11-01-2005, 08:19 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
Rigged. It doesn't really help that the 50 and 100 aren't really that good of games that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're DERB.

He seems to have no problem crushing them, regardless of the lineup. I think he was up about 50-60k in the 50/100 the first week after the split - and it's not like he plays marathon sessions, that was only around 10k hands for that week.

[/ QUOTE ]

How? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

AJo Go All In

11-01-2005, 09:13 PM

you think down 581 bets playing on party is bad? man check this [censored] out, i am down 732 bets playing on dates that are a multiple of 5. i lost 16k on october 15th and 24k on september 5th. sick!!!!

ghostface

11-02-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you think down 581 bets playing on party is bad? man check this [censored] out, i am down 732 bets playing on dates that are a multiple of 5. i lost 16k on october 15th and 24k on september 5th. sick!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

ooooh, amazing! I will definitely avoid playing on 11/5. Thanks for the warning.

bicyclekick

11-02-2005, 04:40 PM

I hate you guys. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

UATrewqaz

11-02-2005, 04:53 PM

Alright it's official, I'm a complete 'tard for being upset about being on a -55BB downswing from last night at .5/1.

prop

11-09-2005, 03:11 PM

over my first 36k hands 6 tabling 5-10 i won 17k, over my last 11k hands ive lost 9k. before i change my game i would like to know if im just running bad, it seems ther should be some info on statandard win rates for certain hands (aa,kk,jj,aks, etc.) and frequency and win rates from hands in the misc tab on poker tracker (2 pair, set, straight, etc.)

im interested due to the fact that over the last 10k hands i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play. i think some baseline numbers here would help us all sleep better at night and not tinker so much in down swings.

MicroBob

11-09-2005, 03:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible

[/ QUOTE ]

It is??
I think you have just proven that it is very possible.

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i think some baseline numbers here would help us all sleep better at night

[/ QUOTE ]

I sleep quite nicely already, thanks.

prop

11-09-2005, 05:10 PM

its impossible that -.30bb/100 is the basline rate for these hands.

furthermore, i dont give a fuq about spelling english is my 4th language how many do you speak bich? also, my MENSA member # is 55126 and my latest iq was 175 on the WAIS III admistered at ucla school of medicine. you dont even exist to me. you cant even understand the significance of what im getting at here

Catt

11-09-2005, 05:11 PM

Notorious G.O.B.

11-09-2005, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
over my first 36k hands 6 tabling 5-10 i won 17k, over my last 11k hands ive lost 9k. before i change my game i would like to know if im just running bad, it seems ther should be some info on statandard win rates for certain hands (aa,kk,jj,aks, etc.) and frequency and win rates from hands in the misc tab on poker tracker (2 pair, set, straight, etc.)

im interested due to the fact that over the last 10k hands i have gotten jj,qq & aks 130 times collectively and am losing money with that group which is impossible no matter how bad you play. i think some baseline numbers here would help us all sleep better at night and not tinker so much in down swings.

[/ QUOTE ]
I imagine it's probably the combination of very bad run and bad play. It's statistically possible you're still beating the game, but it's pretty unlikely. I advise you to move down and/or play fewer tables. Maybe get the Joe Tall service or something.

prop

11-09-2005, 05:16 PM

i never said i was beating the game or even playing well. im asking about baseline frequency and win rates for generic holdingd such as, top pair, 2 pair, set etc...

7ontheline

11-09-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its impossible that -.30bb/100 is the basline rate for these hands.

furthermore, i dont give a fuq about spelling english is my 4th language how many do you speak bich? also, my MENSA member # is 55126 and my latest iq was 175 on the WAIS III admistered at ucla school of medicine. you dont even exist to me. you cant even understand the significance of what im getting at here

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you're going to be a great doctor. I'll bet all your patients ask you what your MENSA number is, that's how they know you're God's gift to them as a healer. Oh, and introduce yourself as Dr. Prop, IQ 175. It goes over well.

GuyOnTilt

11-09-2005, 06:10 PM

When I went thru a ~500 BB downswing a couple months ago it was the first time I had ever heard of a solid player come even close to that at games <1/2. Since then 3 more of us have and you've all broken my record. Weird?

GoT

Notorious G.O.B.

11-09-2005, 06:30 PM

Lmn55d

11-09-2005, 07:17 PM

what limits was your swing at?

Surfbullet

11-09-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it can get annoying when weird stuff like this happens. When I first moved up to 10/20 I hit a pretty big downswing... but it was some 10/20 and some 5/10 over the course of 30kish hands.

If you look at the 30k hands as a whole, lots of ups and downs but nothing crazy. When you filter it by limit all the 10/20 hands were downswings and the 5/10 hands were upswings, which leaves me with this insane looking -400 BB slide at 10/20. It can kinda mess with your mind after awhile, if I'd played 10/20 on 5/10 days and vice-versa it would have been a pretty nice run...but of course that is flawed thinking.

Surf

Eder

11-09-2005, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i never said i was beating the game or even playing well. im asking about baseline frequency and win rates for generic holdingd such as, top pair, 2 pair, set etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you can easily be overall loser w JJ,QQ,AKs if you disregard your opponents hands

Eder

11-09-2005, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its impossible that -.30bb/100 is the basline rate for these hands.

furthermore, i dont give a fuq about spelling english is my 4th language how many do you speak bich? also, my MENSA member # is 55126 and my latest iq was 175 on the WAIS III admistered at ucla school of medicine. you dont even exist to me. you cant even understand the significance of what im getting at here

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you're going to be a great doctor. I'll bet all your patients ask you what your MENSA number is, that's how they know you're God's gift to them as a healer. Oh, and introduce yourself as Dr. Prop, IQ 175. It goes over well.

[/ QUOTE ]

My brother has a high MENSA #...he is a marginally employed idiot dumb enough to send MENSA a membership fee.

Subfallen

11-10-2005, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When I went thru a ~500 BB downswing a couple months ago it was the first time I had ever heard of a solid player come even close to that at games <1/2. Since then 3 more of us have and you've all broken my record. Weird?

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

Party is rigged? But seriously, yeah that's weird.

ggbman

11-10-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its impossible that -.30bb/100 is the basline rate for these hands.

furthermore, i dont give a fuq about spelling english is my 4th language how many do you speak bich? also, my MENSA member # is 55126 and my latest iq was 175 on the WAIS III admistered at ucla school of medicine. you dont even exist to me. you cant even understand the significance of what im getting at here

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too bad you're that smart and yet you can't suceed at poker. That must suck huh? Seriously, try to conduct yourself a little better here, no gives a [censored] about you IQ or how small your [censored] is.

sfer

11-10-2005, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its impossible that -.30bb/100 is the basline rate for these hands.

furthermore, i dont give a fuq about spelling english is my 4th language how many do you speak bich? also, my MENSA member # is 55126 and my latest iq was 175 on the WAIS III admistered at ucla school of medicine. you dont even exist to me. you cant even understand the significance of what im getting at here

[/ QUOTE ]

MENSA is to the marginally smart what Hummers are to the marginally wealthy.

pudley4

11-10-2005, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its impossible that -.30bb/100 is the basline rate for these hands.

furthermore, i dont give a fuq about spelling english is my 4th language how many do you speak bich? also, my MENSA member # is 55126 and my latest iq was 175 on the WAIS III admistered at ucla school of medicine. you dont even exist to me. you cant even understand the significance of what im getting at here

[/ QUOTE ]

MENSA is to the marginally smart what Hummers are to the marginally wealthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You couldn't get in either, huh? /images/graemlins/frown.gif

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif