Blind war...river checkraise?

[Josh W]

Party 30-60.

All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

River 8d. Checkraise or bet out?

Thanks,

Josh

[Solami17]

Bet. If you check to him is likely that he will check a weak ace or a missed draw. Check/raise will only work if your knowledge of the player is strong enough to know that he will bet one last time, in which a C/R will get you one more BB.

[Lmn55d]

I'd go for the checkraise. After he called the flop 3bet and raised the turn I think it's very likely he has a strong hand that will bet the river. He couldn't really expect you to fold the turn so I don't see it as a free showdown raise or anything.

Betting might allow you to 3bet, but I think most of the hands he would raise a river donk with would 3bet a checkraise (2 pair and lower sets), allowing you to cap. He's not gonna put you on 88 or anything and the diamond didn't complete any draws, so he's gonna 3bet sets almost always and 2 pair most of the time. If you have any fear of him checking behind (I don't see why you should) , I'd bet it. Or if you think he'd raise a river donk with weaker hands like naked aces.

[daryn]

i would bet this. when you bet turn he might have raised for the free showdown, plus i would feel really silly to have him play perfect, in other words check the river with an ace when he was ahead the whole and and lost it on the river

bet, or be owned.

[baronzeus]

honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time.

[shemp]

1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind.

2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise.

I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind.

2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise.

I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your reasoning is only correct if he never river raises 2 pair, and I don't think that's a fair assumption.

Josh

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. If you check to him is likely that he will check a weak ace or a missed draw. Check/raise will only work if your knowledge of the player is strong enough to know that he will bet one last time, in which a C/R will get you one more BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may or may not check a missed draw. But he certainly won't call with one.

Josh

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
i would bet this. when you bet turn he might have raised for the free showdown, plus i would feel really silly to have him play perfect, in other words check the river with an ace when he was ahead the whole and and lost it on the river

bet, or be owned.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understood completely.

However....feeling/looking silly may have some metagame considerations, but I think missing a +EV situation because of fear of looking silly is, well...silly. (I'm not stating that this IS a +EV situation to checkraise, though).

Thanks,

Josh

[DcifrThs]

people do silly [censored] in blind wars.

he could have a draw w/ 1pair etc...

i think this is a fairly standard bet on the river given the action. he can also have a weak ace here putting you on a draw. anyways, i like a bet.

Barron

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind.

2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise.

I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your reasoning is only correct if he never river raises 2 pair, and I don't think that's a fair assumption.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

"A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets"

Is this not clear?

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find this easy to believe. It happens to me a lot too. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ggbman]

I like a bet here. Your going to get raised by smaller sets and two pair combos a lot anyway. Betting will get more money in because of this, and you also dodge a bullet the times he made a free showdown raise.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind.

2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise.

I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your reasoning is only correct if he never river raises 2 pair, and I don't think that's a fair assumption.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

"A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets"

Is this not clear?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfectly.

Sorry I didn't see it the first time. My bad.

Josh

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it out of respect for Josh that every response is about the river? I think this hand was overplayed and he should have folded to the turn raise.

Having said that, I'd bet the river.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it out of respect for Josh that every response is about the river? I think this hand was overplayed and he should have folded to the turn raise.

Having said that, I'd bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

[Victor]

whenever i try to read hands with regards to what my opponent should do, i am unequivocally wrong.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
whenever i try to read hands with regards to what my opponent should do, i am unequivocally wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

The key to reading hands, and poker in general, is realizing it's not black and white. Everything is probabilities. Not just "the probability of flopping a set" probabilities, but "what is the chance he plays this hand that way" probabilities.

You don't want to get locked into "He must have XX" type of thinking. It's better to have a "He **could** have XX" thinking.

In my previous post, I talk about what he'd LIKELY do with any holdings, and I stand by those. I say that he likely wouldn't raise the flop and turn with an ace, for example.

If I get to showdown and realize he did precisely that, it doesn't mean that my assessment was incorrect. However, the next time that situation comes up, I should probably tweak my percentages (but not necessarily overhaul them altogether)

I hope that makes sense...

Josh

[skp]

The river is a bet for the reasons already given by most but what I am wondering about is your flop and turn play. Where are you going with all that action?

Some plausible reasons to 3 bet the flop:

1. You want him to fold a hand like KJ to a turn bet- but it's unlikely that he has such a hand

2. You want him to fold a hand like 99 - again, an unlikely holding for him because of his preflop smoothcall

3. You want to make him pay to draw to his 5 to 12 outer

Well, okay, maybe reason No. 3 is reason enough so let's say that your flop 3 bet is okay.

Now, you get raised on the turn on an Ace high board after you 3 bet the flop and raised preflop.

The guy ain't bluffing.

I would generally fold at that point - I would only call if I felt that there was something currently wrong with my image that my opponent might be exploiting.

BTW, I have been away for a month holidaying in Australia.
Empire poker...wtf?

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it out of respect for Josh that every response is about the river? I think this hand was overplayed and he should have folded to the turn raise.

Having said that, I'd bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is very good analysis. Too often in a hand like this I will just be like "crap, if hes raising again I must be beat" so I fold.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 30-60.

All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

River 8d. Checkraise or bet out?

Thanks,

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked.

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
I checked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on your analysis of your opponent's hand, your thinking is that he's on a busted draw and the only bet you're getting out of him on the river is from a bluff?

[mike l.]

wow i think check-calling after the guy raises the flop is okay. as for the river i think you should bet/reraise but that's only cause i think the guy has the A he's been representing, which apparently you didnt since you kept calling him down.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
The key to reading hands, and poker in general, is realizing it's not black and white. Everything is probabilities. Not just "the probability of flopping a set" probabilities, but "what is the chance he plays this hand that way" probabilities.

You don't want to get locked into "He must have XX" type of thinking. It's better to have a "He **could** have XX" thinking.

In my previous post, I talk about what he'd LIKELY do with any holdings, and I stand by those. I say that he likely wouldn't raise the flop and turn with an ace, for example.

If I get to showdown and realize he did precisely that, it doesn't mean that my assessment was incorrect. However, the next time that situation comes up, I should probably tweak my percentages (but not necessarily overhaul them altogether)

I hope that makes sense...

[/ QUOTE ]

It does, which is why I'm glad you're posting more.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is.

[eviljeff]

he doesn't seem shy about raising your bets. seems like the only case where betting is not better is where he's been on a draw the whole way and won't bluff-raise.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, baronzeus is a c/r virgin

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 75% number was just something I threw out there as a rough estimate. If I call the turn raise, I almost have to call any river. When he raises the turn, there are 8 BB in the pot, and I'll lose 2 more bets (one more on turn, one on river). So, if he never bluffs the river (worst case scenario), I'm risking 2 to win 8. I guess I shoulda said 80% then. If I'm ahead more than 20% of the time, I should call down, even if he never bluffs the river.

If he'll bluff the river, I'm risking 2 to win 9, so I only need to be ahead 18.2% of the time.

The 75% was a quick estimate, and was off a little.

Josh

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I checked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on your analysis of your opponent's hand, your thinking is that he's on a busted draw and the only bet you're getting out of him on the river is from a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his most likely holdings are: A6, 46, or some sort of draw (maybe draw/pair combo).

If he has A6 or 46, he'll bet. If he has a busted draw, he may or may not bet, but there's certainly no value in me betting.

It's entirely possible I underestimated his chance of having A5 or A3 and he checks behind (IMO, those are really the only hands he can possibly play this way that checks the river).

I think it's close, but since I wake up every morning hoping I find a way to checkraise the river, I think checking is correct.

Josh

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
wow i think check-calling after the guy raises the flop is okay. as for the river i think you should bet/reraise but that's only cause i think the guy has the A he's been representing, which apparently you didnt since you kept calling him down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't "keep calling him down", I only called once the entire hand. I ain't no pansy.

In reality, the guy had T4o, and he checked behind on the river.

I think that there is probably about a 50% chance he calls a river bet, and maybe a 10% chance that he bets the river. All this means is that if I was good enough to put him on this hand, I shoulda bet the river.

Josh