d1sterbd
10-30-2005, 05:06 PM
Can someone help me with this? I just read two articles that seem to contradict when talking about football lines and whether they are balanced or not. The first two paragraphs are from one source and the third paragraph is from a different source.
http://sportsbetfootball.com/nfl_football_betting_myths.html
Myth #2: The line is created to beat the public.
Reality: That's laughable. With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional players because it is they who bet serious money on the game.
Myth #3: Lines get balanced action.
Reality: Yeah, maybe in bookmakers' dreams. While the idea is to construct a line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way in the real world. Much more typically, four or five games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of wagering to cause much of a stir, four or five other games will have balanced betting, and the remaining four or five games will have heavy one-way action. Traditionally, it is how books fare on these lopsided games, called "decisions, "that determines who wins or loses. Of course, with an 11-10 advantage in vigorish, winning half these key decisions usually translates to a successful week for bet takers.
http://www.bettorsworld.com/pp/bet-football.htm
What does the Line NOT mean? It does not mean, under any circumstances, that oddsmakers think the Jets will win by about 6 or 7 points. It's your job to predict who will win and by how much...the line-maker doesn't want to do your job for you. He works for the bookies. He and the bookies don't care who wins or loses or by how much–they just want the same amount of cash on each side so the bookies can get juice. The line-maker tries to come up with the handicap of points that will put half the public's money on the Jets, and half on the Patriots. As long as the money is split evenly, the bookie "wins" in his own way, and the result of the game is of no importance to him.
http://sportsbetfootball.com/nfl_football_betting_myths.html
Myth #2: The line is created to beat the public.
Reality: That's laughable. With the exception of the Super Bowl, the public plays almost no role in the linemaking process. The line is created and adjusted to meet the opinion of professional players because it is they who bet serious money on the game.
Myth #3: Lines get balanced action.
Reality: Yeah, maybe in bookmakers' dreams. While the idea is to construct a line that is of equal attraction to both favorite and underdog players, it rarely works out that way in the real world. Much more typically, four or five games on the NFL schedule will have an insignificant amount of wagering to cause much of a stir, four or five other games will have balanced betting, and the remaining four or five games will have heavy one-way action. Traditionally, it is how books fare on these lopsided games, called "decisions, "that determines who wins or loses. Of course, with an 11-10 advantage in vigorish, winning half these key decisions usually translates to a successful week for bet takers.
http://www.bettorsworld.com/pp/bet-football.htm
What does the Line NOT mean? It does not mean, under any circumstances, that oddsmakers think the Jets will win by about 6 or 7 points. It's your job to predict who will win and by how much...the line-maker doesn't want to do your job for you. He works for the bookies. He and the bookies don't care who wins or loses or by how much–they just want the same amount of cash on each side so the bookies can get juice. The line-maker tries to come up with the handicap of points that will put half the public's money on the Jets, and half on the Patriots. As long as the money is split evenly, the bookie "wins" in his own way, and the result of the game is of no importance to him.