Blind defense flops top pair, river brings an overcard

[SlantNGo]

First of all, the blind defense... this guy was sLA-P, but his PFR was only 8 so I don't think he's stealing too light here. Maybe any Ace, most Kings, any PP, and any 2 face cards. And that's about all the read I had on him at the time unfortunately.

On the river, I was slightly scared of the King, but also, I didn't think Ace high would call a bet so I checked, planning to call a bet. Should I just value bet this situation?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks planning to call a bet

[Kumubou]

Bet the river please. There are a ton of hands (especially from bad players) that will call -- any lower pair, ace-high, two Yu-Gi-Oh cards. However, they will usually take the free showdown if so offered. The only reason you would not want to bet is if he is likely to raise you on a straight-up bluff (even if he's aggro enough to raise his rivered K... he still has you beat).

I do not know how much I like the pre-flop call, though. It really comes down to if he is a typical PP player or someone who is position-aware. Against your typical donk with a PFR of 8, you are ahead of none of his raising hands. Have you seen hands from him where he would steal raise with 22 or K7s preflop?

-K

[FlopMe]

I would have played this hand the same way. I'd hate to value bet this river and be raised. It's not a big pot so check-calling is my line on the river here too.

i would let go of this pre-flop, you're headsup with a marginal hand.

anyways, if you suspect a steal, then yes you played it fine. Value betting the river is also the way to go.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
this guy was sLA-P... Should I just value bet this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your PT read suggests that he's checking this river more than he's betting. Most of the time I would rather bet the river than check-call it, so I might as well find out how he responds to a bet.

[DCWildcat]

This would be an ugly fold vs a steal.

I'm still betting this river. I doubt he's calling the turn with Kx. I'd be more inclined to check an ace.

[McGahee]

Yeah, Q9s is plenty good to defend with. Folding is weak sauce.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, the blind defense... this guy was sLA-P, but his PFR was only 8 so I don't think he's stealing too light here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you've got stats, did you check his "Att. to Steal"?

Other than that, I think it's fine up to the river. Isn't this river a bet/fold (even though I hate that line) and checking gets one of Wook's kittens killed? Is he really bad enough to call your flop c/r (should take out J/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif and K/images/graemlins/heart.gifx/images/graemlins/heart.gif) and turn bet with a hand that the K/images/graemlins/club.gif improves, only getting 5:1, but if he is doesn't that even more point you to betting the river?

[SlantNGo]

Att. to Steal was 1/4... loose table, not many attempts going around. Bet/fold was the other option on the river... I think that if I had a read that he would bet but not call with A-high on the river that I made the right move. But I had no read, so... bet/fold it should have been.