Always Rockets
10-30-2005, 11:51 AM
Hey I haven't been to the site since the summer, but this drove me nuts when I saw it.
Remember the article about the odds in football and how coaches often misunderstand the value of punting/going for it etc etc etc...
check this out.
This is taken from the Kansas City Star Website. It is written by Joe Posnanski.
Marty’s got to know when to hold ’em
JOE POSNANSKI
The word of the day is “gamble.” And our subject is that anti-gambling spokesman himself, San Diego Chargers head coach and old friend Marty Schottenheimer. You know, if Schottenheimer is inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his plaque should read a little something like this:
Martin Schottenheimer … Overall Record 180-121 … Born Sept. 23, 1943, in Canonsburg, Pa. … Teams rarely beat themselves … Coached Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington and San Diego … Famous for “not losing” … Was seventh- round pick of Buffalo Bills and played in 1965 Pro Bowl … Did not lose more games than any coach in NFL history.
Yes, Vince Lombardi is known for the Packer Sweep, Tom Landry for the flex defense, Bill Walsh for the West Coast offense. Marty’s legacy will be his ability not to lose. That’s his nature. He’s so conservative that he should wear Tucker Carlson’s bowtie on the sideline. The guy has been holding that bird in the hand for 20 years.
Of course, conservative works for Marty, right? His teams almost always make the playoffs. They almost always win 10 games in a season. There are only a handful of coaches who have matched Schottenheimer’s regular-season record. You can bet the Chiefs will have to play out of their minds to go into San Diego and win Sunday.
Then, of course, the playoffs come around, and Schottenheimer’s teams almost always lose. Worse, they lose in terrible, painful fashion. People ask, “Why?”
I think it comes back to the topic: gambling.
Last week, with San Diego up four points on Philadelphia with about 3 minutes left in the game, the Chargers faced third down and 3. If they had “gambled” and thrown the ball and picked up a first down, the ballgame would have been over.
Marty is no gambler. The Chargers did not try for the first down. They ran the ball so the clock would run. They got 1 yard. Thirty-some seconds rolled off the clock.
Fourth down and 2 in field-goal range. Again: If the Chargers had gambled and picked up a first down, they would have won. Schottenheimer never even considered that. He tried the field goal so that, at best, Philadelphia could tie.
The Eagles blocked the kick and returned it for a touchdown. San Diego lost.
Now, obviously, that was a fluke. After the game, though, everyone wondered why these flukes always seem to happen to Schottenheimer. How does he keep losing these heartbreakers?
The answer, I think, is simple: He misunderstands the word “gambling.” Most coaches do. Almost every coach in pro football, college, high school believes that by playing it safe — by “playing the odds” — they have a better chance to win.
But have football coaches actually figured the odds?
Let’s take a simple scenario: Say there are 2 minutes left in the game, the other team is out of timeouts. You are up four points, and you’re facing fourth and 1 at midfield. Obviously, people would say the gamble is to go for it, and punting would be playing it safe. Marty Schottenheimer would almost always punt. Most coaches would punt.
But what’s the real gamble?
Let’s do a little math.
If you go for it and make it, you win 100 percent of the time. That’s simple. If you go for it and don’t get the yard, you probably still win. The team still has to go 50 yards and score a touchdown without any timeouts.
OK, now let’s say you punt. You probably gain 30 or 40 yards, no small thing. So what should you do? To figure it out, you need to estimate what your chances are to win in each scenario. Here’s an example:
Go for it (and make it): Win 100 percent.
Go for it (and don’t make it): Win 60 percent.
Punt: Win 75 percent of the time.
Obviously, these numbers are pure guesses. Every game, every defense, every punter, every situation is different. But these odds seem reasonable. Let’s run these numbers. The math says that, in this scenario, if you believe you have a 37.5-percent chance of getting the first down, you should go for it. Get that? Is there a coach in the league that does not believe his team has a 37.5-percent chance of picking up 1 yard?
You can plug in your own numbers if you want. I just want to make the point: We misuse the word “gamble” in football all the time. Football coaches generally — and Marty Schottenheimer in particular — do not like to gamble. They want to believe they have more control of the game.
But it’s all a gamble, isn’t it? Sometimes playing it safe is the biggest gamble of all. If you punt, you are gambling that your defense will stop the other team. You are gambling time will run out. You are gambling that your punter won’t shank the punt. You are gambling it won’t be blocked or the snap will not fly over the punter’s head or the punter will not show up (Kansas State gamble only).
You are gambling, in other words, that the other team won’t break your heart.
Marty Schottenheimer has had that heart stomped many times in his life. Some people say he’s snakebitten. I say that Schottenheimer constantly puts himself in position to have his heart stomped. In his own way, he gambles as much as anybody.
And, in the biggest games, he’s not a very a lucky gambler.
-------------------------------------------------
Blantant theft? What do you think?
Remember the article about the odds in football and how coaches often misunderstand the value of punting/going for it etc etc etc...
check this out.
This is taken from the Kansas City Star Website. It is written by Joe Posnanski.
Marty’s got to know when to hold ’em
JOE POSNANSKI
The word of the day is “gamble.” And our subject is that anti-gambling spokesman himself, San Diego Chargers head coach and old friend Marty Schottenheimer. You know, if Schottenheimer is inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his plaque should read a little something like this:
Martin Schottenheimer … Overall Record 180-121 … Born Sept. 23, 1943, in Canonsburg, Pa. … Teams rarely beat themselves … Coached Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington and San Diego … Famous for “not losing” … Was seventh- round pick of Buffalo Bills and played in 1965 Pro Bowl … Did not lose more games than any coach in NFL history.
Yes, Vince Lombardi is known for the Packer Sweep, Tom Landry for the flex defense, Bill Walsh for the West Coast offense. Marty’s legacy will be his ability not to lose. That’s his nature. He’s so conservative that he should wear Tucker Carlson’s bowtie on the sideline. The guy has been holding that bird in the hand for 20 years.
Of course, conservative works for Marty, right? His teams almost always make the playoffs. They almost always win 10 games in a season. There are only a handful of coaches who have matched Schottenheimer’s regular-season record. You can bet the Chiefs will have to play out of their minds to go into San Diego and win Sunday.
Then, of course, the playoffs come around, and Schottenheimer’s teams almost always lose. Worse, they lose in terrible, painful fashion. People ask, “Why?”
I think it comes back to the topic: gambling.
Last week, with San Diego up four points on Philadelphia with about 3 minutes left in the game, the Chargers faced third down and 3. If they had “gambled” and thrown the ball and picked up a first down, the ballgame would have been over.
Marty is no gambler. The Chargers did not try for the first down. They ran the ball so the clock would run. They got 1 yard. Thirty-some seconds rolled off the clock.
Fourth down and 2 in field-goal range. Again: If the Chargers had gambled and picked up a first down, they would have won. Schottenheimer never even considered that. He tried the field goal so that, at best, Philadelphia could tie.
The Eagles blocked the kick and returned it for a touchdown. San Diego lost.
Now, obviously, that was a fluke. After the game, though, everyone wondered why these flukes always seem to happen to Schottenheimer. How does he keep losing these heartbreakers?
The answer, I think, is simple: He misunderstands the word “gambling.” Most coaches do. Almost every coach in pro football, college, high school believes that by playing it safe — by “playing the odds” — they have a better chance to win.
But have football coaches actually figured the odds?
Let’s take a simple scenario: Say there are 2 minutes left in the game, the other team is out of timeouts. You are up four points, and you’re facing fourth and 1 at midfield. Obviously, people would say the gamble is to go for it, and punting would be playing it safe. Marty Schottenheimer would almost always punt. Most coaches would punt.
But what’s the real gamble?
Let’s do a little math.
If you go for it and make it, you win 100 percent of the time. That’s simple. If you go for it and don’t get the yard, you probably still win. The team still has to go 50 yards and score a touchdown without any timeouts.
OK, now let’s say you punt. You probably gain 30 or 40 yards, no small thing. So what should you do? To figure it out, you need to estimate what your chances are to win in each scenario. Here’s an example:
Go for it (and make it): Win 100 percent.
Go for it (and don’t make it): Win 60 percent.
Punt: Win 75 percent of the time.
Obviously, these numbers are pure guesses. Every game, every defense, every punter, every situation is different. But these odds seem reasonable. Let’s run these numbers. The math says that, in this scenario, if you believe you have a 37.5-percent chance of getting the first down, you should go for it. Get that? Is there a coach in the league that does not believe his team has a 37.5-percent chance of picking up 1 yard?
You can plug in your own numbers if you want. I just want to make the point: We misuse the word “gamble” in football all the time. Football coaches generally — and Marty Schottenheimer in particular — do not like to gamble. They want to believe they have more control of the game.
But it’s all a gamble, isn’t it? Sometimes playing it safe is the biggest gamble of all. If you punt, you are gambling that your defense will stop the other team. You are gambling time will run out. You are gambling that your punter won’t shank the punt. You are gambling it won’t be blocked or the snap will not fly over the punter’s head or the punter will not show up (Kansas State gamble only).
You are gambling, in other words, that the other team won’t break your heart.
Marty Schottenheimer has had that heart stomped many times in his life. Some people say he’s snakebitten. I say that Schottenheimer constantly puts himself in position to have his heart stomped. In his own way, he gambles as much as anybody.
And, in the biggest games, he’s not a very a lucky gambler.
-------------------------------------------------
Blantant theft? What do you think?