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View Full Version : Is this normal, home/away totals off for NFL on pinacle?


SumZero
10-30-2005, 03:43 AM
Pinacle's current spread for all home teams on Sunday's NFL is -37.

Their line for Home totals versus Away totals on Sunday is Home -47.

Does this indicate that the Away of the home/away is a good value or that home teams are better value this week in the betting or both?

SumZero
10-30-2005, 04:43 AM
Hm, do they count Monday night's game as well? That would explain the difference. I guess I was thrown by listing the bet as a saturday bet, but I guess that is just you have to bet before Saturday's game for it to count.

Now if you count Monday then the totals are -47.5 for Home teams based on adding individual lines and -47 the offered amount on the Home/Away bet. And 579 the over/under amount if you add up the totals but 578 is the over/under offered on the Home/Away over/under bet.

DougOzzzz
10-30-2005, 06:07 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Pinacle's current spread for all home teams on Sunday's NFL is -37.

Their line for Home totals versus Away totals on Sunday is Home -47.

Does this indicate that the Away of the home/away is a good value or that home teams are better value this week in the betting or both?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that they shade their lines slightly towards the favorite (almost all home teams this week are favorites). While finding individual edges might still be tough because of the vig, the cumulative bet might be "too good" for the away squads if they set it at -47.

Edit: Also, it's possible that big favorites cover the spread by a large margin significantly less often than other subsets. This would be due to the "garbage time" factor at the end of the game if it is a blowout. I don't have a football database to check this though.

Edit the Edit: Actually, this theory isn't really consistent with how I have learned to play teasers. The 6-7 points is not very valuable once you get past +10.