15-30 party. Missed value bet on the river?

[glen]

Here's a situation that comes up often and I wonder if what I do really matters in the long run.

The game is six-handed and I'm under the gun with red kings. I raise, LA three-bets, unknown (button) caps, BB calls, I call. Four players for four bets each.

Flop: 9d 2s, 2c. BB bets, I raise, LA calls, button cold-calls, BB calls.

Turn: 3c. Big blind bets, I raise. LA and Cutoff fold. BB calls.

River: Ah. BB checks, I check and win.

I checked the hand history and he had TT, which is consistent with his play and about where I put him. I don't think he would bet the turn with a big ace, but rather just call down after my flop raise. I just say to myself that he probably won't call the river if I bet after I raised the flop and turn with anything that I beat, but I actually see a lot of good (and bad) players successfully make this value bet. The size of the pot weighs greatly on the decision, since it is 16BB. Do most people bet here?

[DanZ]

yes, you have a pretty easy bet, for 4 reasons:

1) for him to bet a big ace on the turn, he has to not play that well, and it has to be AK of clubs, or AQ of clubs if he is a nut. But there are lots of ways for him to have KK-TT. Once you raise the turn, you are probably going to be 3 bet by 99 or AA, as either hand should fear an overcard to your pair keep them from getting a check-raise in on the river, and the pot size will make you call him.

2) he has to expect you to bet once the river ace falls, and most players don't expect this.

3) he might try to check-raise bluff with a bad pair here. This is a reason to bet, since you have an easy call.

4) it seems obvious he has something of value, so he will likely call in this large pot.

Dan Z.

[glen]

Dan,

Thanks for the complete analysis. A few of points I found particularly interesting. the check-raise bluff concept is a good one; in fact, I can think of a few players against whom I wouldn't hesitate to bet praying!that they check-raise me with their busted straight draw undercards. The point about playing really bad by betting the ace on the turn. . . well, I've run into this alot, and, maybe I'm paranoid because of it, but I don't find it that unusual. Yesterday for example, it was folded to the sb ( big LA) who raised. I called with 8c7c. The flop was J 7 4 rainbow. He bet, I raised, he three-bet, I called. The turn was and eight, putting two hearts on the board. He bet, I raised, he, paused, three-bet, and I capped. The river brought a heart, and he bet, and I called, and he showed Ah6h. (Now, hopefully, my post-flop play can be put into perspective for others. . .) Sometimes I can't help but get a little gun shy after a few of these instances. . . but you're right, it's a river bet. . .

[elysium]

hi glen
clear value bet. he will call with his lower pair.

[onlinechamp]

If it were me I laydown 10 10 to your raise on flop but that's because I am the champ!

[glen]

oc,

so you would have seen the flop?

glen

[Ed Miller]

This is the situation you are hoping for with KK... your opponent has an overpair smaller than yours. You have to milk it. By this point, that Ace shouldn't scare you... just pretend it was a 2 and bet away.

And yes, if you routinely miss this value bet, it will significantly affect your longterm bottom line.