$22 SnG; totally lost

The hand converter seems to be down, so forgive the raw HH.

PokerStars Game #2927117586: Tournament #14439049, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2005/10/30 - 00:39:08 (ET)
Table '14439049 6' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: toshkya (1855 in chips)
Seat 2: winpotjc (2630 in chips)
Seat 3: Pole21 (1945 in chips)
Seat 4: dynamo9 (1650 in chips)
Seat 5: "ca$h&m0nie" (955 in chips)
Seat 6: MoxlessMatt (1660 in chips)
Seat 7: neodoc (1185 in chips)
Seat 8: oznol (1430 in chips)
Seat 9: 11 Penguins (1650 in chips)
oznol: posts small blind 15
11 Penguins: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oznol [Jc As]
toshkya: folds
winpotjc: calls 30
Pole21: folds
dynamo9: folds
"ca$h&m0nie": folds
MoxlessMatt: calls 30
neodoc: calls 30
oznol: calls 15
11 Penguins: checks
*** FLOP *** [3s 2s Ad]
oznol: bets 120
11 Penguins: folds
winpotjc: calls 120
MoxlessMatt: folds
neodoc: folds
*** TURN *** [3s 2s Ad] [9s]
oznol: bets 270
winpotjc: raises 2210 to 2480 and is all-in

Unsure on every street.

Preflop I don't know.. my hand seems too weak to raise, and too strong to fold. So I limped to see a flop.

Flop: OK, so this is about as good as I can hope for. I'm assuming that higher aces would have raised so I assume my hand is good right now. I made my bet almost pot-size to try to get rid of flush draws.

Turn: Crap, the flush got there. I bet into him to try to figure out what's going on, and he thinks for about 20 seconds and shoves. Crap.

Now, should I call the push? He might be trying to scare me off, or he might be as scared of the spades as I am and am trying to push me out. Even if he does have a made flush, I have the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif so I have a redraw to the nuts.

Basically I'm not sure of anything in this hand. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

[benneh]

i'd fold. you have to be right way more often than you will be.

Fold. If you want to chase with As, check/call the turn.

Any comments on the rest of the hand?

[A_Junglen]

Preflop: I don't see much of a problem limping here. Taking the flop with AJ out of position in a raised pot is bad times. Any preflop raise would be T-180+, but I would've taken the calling route also.

Flop: You bet the pot, I would've bet 90, same difference. You got called by the chipleader, so thats bad times.

Turn: Here's where I bet less, or check. You bet out 270, and was moved in on. After being moved in on I put villain on Ah-2h, or something similar and fold. He also could've had Qs-Js, but I doubt he'd move in with the made flush. It's much more likely he'd move in with 2 pair.

In the end, it's a fold.


There's also a SNG forum....

Sorry, i didn't make myself clear. It was a 180 player SnG on Stars.

[SumZero]

I think a reasonable argument could be made that you played it wrong on every street. I think a bunch of players would suggest r,c/r,c/f would be the right line. I wouldn't agree that every street was wrong though. Appologies if there are dump wording or calc errors below, it is too late at night for great editing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I agree with you that limping from the small blind given there are 3 other limpers and given that the stacks are big (15 chips is like 1% of your stack) is probably the right move. Note that your possible range of hands is pretty much anything.

I'm not sure I like the raise as the first move here. Your range is wide, you are first to act, against most players I'd check, planning the check raise. If I get the chance to check/raise I'm going to bet enough to make a flush draw have the wrong price. So with 150 in the pot if someone bets 120 back at me I'd raise to 450 total (happy to take down the pot and the bet). If called this still leaves me with ~1000 to push with on the turn if a non-spade hits. There is some chance that we give free cards to someone with a low flush draw or with a gutshot wheel draw, but I find way more often than not someone will semi-bluff, bluff, or bet a lower A here.

Once you make the pot sized bet and get called and then the third spade hits you have a real problem. There is 390 in the pot. Your stack is 1280. His range for flat calling the previous bet is pretty much 2 pair, straight, set, worse-A, flush draw. He was the first in limper and certainly could have a hand like JTs or 22 or 33, or even slow play AA. There is another card to come, and unless it is going to be a spade, then you will have a hard time keeping this pot small. Because even if you check, if he bets a small amount and you call, you'll be priced into the river call. So, in essence, you are very likely playing for all your chips here. Let's say his hand range is:
part 1: A2-AJ, 45s, 23s, 34s, 22, 33, AA
plus,
part2: any K high flush, and any suited connectors, 1, or 2 gapper in spades (other than 45s which we already counted).

There are 89 hands in part 1 and the equity against them is 66.93%.

There are 27 hands by my count in part 2. Your equity against these hands is around 15.7%.

So if our choices are fold, with EV 1280, and all in called against the hand ranges in part 1 and 2, with EV 1623, then we want to get all-in.

But that might be too loose. Let's say we change his original limp to be tighter, and factor in the flop call, maybe we get his range to:

part 1: A2-AJs, A9-AJ, 45s, 23s, 34s, 22, 33, AA
plus
part 2: any K flush, suited connectors (-45 spades), and suited 1 gappers.

There are 51 hands in part 1 and the equity against them is 57.17%.

There are now 23 hands in part 2 and the equity against them is around 15.7%.

So if our choices are fold, with EV 1280, and all in called against the hand ranges in part 1 and 2, with EV 1306, we want to get all-in.

So now the question becomes, what is the best way to end up all-in against him. If we push then we are only going to drop the hands that we are beating (the weaker A's) and that isn't what we want. I think our best move therefore is to check. If we check he either checks, in which case we can go all-in on the river, or else, most likely, he bets around the size of the pot. If he bets around 400 and we then check raise all-in he'll be getting better than 2:1 on his money (anohter ~900 to win the ~900 bet plus the pot of ~1200) and may be priced in. And even if not he isn't going to fold a hand to your c/r that he'd have called your open push. If he pushes after our turn check then we bail as this is likely to be a baby flush or a set IME, and very unlikely to be a dominated ace.

Once you make the small 3/4 pot bet and he pushes over the top I think he's narrowed his range some to hands that are beating you. That is A-2 pair or better hands (either a made flush, or a supper strong non-flush that is vulnerable to the 4th spade hitting the board). So now that becomes something like:

part 1: A2s, A3s, A9s, A9, 45s, 22, 33, AA
plus
part 2: all as above.

So there are now 21 hands in part 1 and the equity against them is 24.24%.

There are still 23 hands in part 2 and the equity against them is still around 15.7%.

Now the pot is 930 and you have 1010 chips, so you are getting just shy of 2:1 on your money. So your choices are:

Fold to the all-in, with EV 1010, or call the all-in, with EV 583, which makes this a pretty clear fold.

[betgo]

Preflop, the complete is correct. Raising wouldn't be terrible as you probably have the best hand, but it is better to limp OOP and AJo is a "trouble hand" that doens't play well with deep money.

On the flop, I would check with the intention to probably checkraise. You could also make a smaller bet. The pot bet has some credibility problems, as no one puts you on a good ace in the blinds.

I would check the turn or make a smaller bet. A lot of times it is better not to bet when you are not sure where you stand.

You are getting close to 2-1 pot odds to call the push, but you probably have to fold. Could villain have AT? Could he have Asx? Villain probably has a flush, 2 pair, a set, or a higher ace. However, it is possible he has a weaker ace and doesn't believe you are ahead in the blinds.

[ansky451]

I have been playing a lot of cash lately, so maybe I'm off my tournament game lately. With that mentality, I'm thinking about pot control, especially on the turn. I like check/calling the turn, and possibly check/ folding the river unimproved. Your hand is too strong not to see a final card I think, but the more $$ you put into the pot, the greater chance you are crushed.

[stokken]

It is very read dependent.
I would probably take a c/c line here, as your position and the number of opponents leaves alot in the fog, and reevaluate on turn, keeps pot relative small and easier to release the hand if that is what you feel appropriate after turn action, you might even get to draw out relatively cheap too.Otherwise you are either gonna win small or loose big most of the time here. Sometimes I would c/r. As the hand played out- the mere call is weakish to your flopp bet. I doubt he is on a set and if such the flush card should scare him then, if he has got the flush it is not the nuts and that leaves room for exploitation. Most likely he has got A,9, possibly a worse kicker as well. If he has A,J you are the one with the best draw. A,K-Q would most likely raised this?
So against a set you have 8 outs, Against A,9 you have 10, against A-x unconnected with board you are winning.

I would probably push this turn card. To put the stress on my opponent. And move on if I was wrong. And make a note on how he plays his flush draws or sets?

Stokken