Big blind, flop pickup bet , loose flop call

[Aaron W.]

It's too early in the session to have any solid reads.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls...

[MrWookie47]

8:1? You've got a gutshot and a BDS (running A2). I think you can make up a couple of BB if you hit. UTG is unlikely to have a 6. You have to wonder about SB, but I think this is close enough to be reasonable.

[ArturiusX]

Check0fold.

[Aaron W.]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

[ArturiusX]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

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You should read some of my hand posts in HUSH then.

Look at this board, its draw heavy. We aren't folding both opponents here at any great frequency. The pot is small. I'd prefer to try for a free card then taking down such a poultry amount of money.

[Entity]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

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I don't think this is a good flop for a bet, especially since you're compelled to call a raise.

Rob

[Aaron W.]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

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You should read some of my hand posts in HUSH then.

Look at this board, its draw heavy. We aren't folding both opponents here at any great frequency. The pot is small. I'd prefer to try for a free card then taking down such a poultry amount of money.

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("Paltry" not "poultry")

But anyway, "Draw heavy" to you means what exactly? Only a 6 or 7 has any sort of "draw".

[ArturiusX]

Let me put it this way, what hands are folding this flop for one? Overcards are probably staying. Any draw probably isn't folding. I think the only way you're getting people to fold is making 2 continuation bets, and thats paying way to much for this hand.

Your hands much to weak to be 'value betting', so its a clear check-fold for me.

I would much rather do this with a pair, a draw and overcards-type hand, or a draw with some showdown value. You have seven high.

[Aaron W.]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

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I don't think this is a good flop for a bet, especially since you're compelled to call a raise.

Rob

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I'm not sure if I am if there is no cold-caller. I've really only got 4-5 outs and the pot isn't very large. I was planning to bet-fold this except that the cold-caller bloated the pot just enough to make me peel.

[Entity]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

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I don't think this is a good flop for a bet, especially since you're compelled to call a raise.

Rob

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I'm not sure if I am if there is no cold-caller. I've really only got 4-5 outs and the pot isn't very large. I was planning to bet-fold this except that the cold-caller bloated the pot just enough to make me peel.

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I know what you're saying, but I don't think the board texture is right for a bet. The big problem is with boards like this you want some sort of credible hand that people will fold to; that doesn't exist much on this board. It's like betting out to pick up the pot on a 333 flop -- it won't work often enough to be worth the shot.

Rob

[MrWookie47]

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Check0fold.

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Yeah, I probably should have commented on this the first time around. I was only thinking about the call when it came back. I agree that this is a poor spot to bet.

[Aaron W.]

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Check0fold.

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You probably don't bet enough flops in limped short-handed pots.

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I don't think this is a good flop for a bet, especially since you're compelled to call a raise.

Rob

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I'm not sure if I am if there is no cold-caller. I've really only got 4-5 outs and the pot isn't very large. I was planning to bet-fold this except that the cold-caller bloated the pot just enough to make me peel.

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I know what you're saying, but I don't think the board texture is right for a bet. The big problem is with boards like this you want some sort of credible hand that people will fold to; that doesn't exist much on this board. It's like betting out to pick up the pot on a 333 flop -- it won't work often enough to be worth the shot.

Rob

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If I get called by two overcards, what do I lose?

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1309413
pokenum -h 7c 3d - js th -- 8h 4c 5d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 4c 5d 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 3d 351 35.45 627 63.33 12 1.21 0.361
Js Th 627 63.33 351 35.45 12 1.21 0.639

So I'm about a 9:5 dog when I get called by two overcards. The extra 4 outs do quite a bit to buffer me when someone takes a loose flop peel. In some other situation where I'm missing the gutshot outs, I'm somewhere around a 3:1 dog.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1309457
pokenum -h 7c 3d - js th -- 9h 2c 5d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c 5d 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 3d 249 25.15 741 74.85 0 0.00 0.252
Js Th 741 74.85 249 25.15 0 0.00 0.748

I do agree that I'm more likely to get called here than if the flop were something like KT5. It's possible that I'm overvaluing the added value of the 4 gutshot outs (about 15% added "nuts" equity - since there's no flush draw on this flop) as part of the semi-bluff for those times I get called. The combination of those two things might be enough to sway the argument in favor of the less aggressive line. I'll have to think about it some more.

i think you HAVE to have solid reads to make this play.

against weak opponents betting is definitely +ev

[Aaron W.]

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Let me put it this way, what hands are folding this flop for one?

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There is a reasonable (but not overwhelming) chance that junk hands decide to fold. J2, T3, and maybe weak overcards like JT, Q9.

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Your hands much to weak to be 'value betting', so its a clear check-fold for me.

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There are more reasons to bet than for value.