10-29-2005, 03:57 PM
Sorry if this is repeating old posts, but I did search the topic and found nothing.
I'm in an intro statistics course and we were given an assignment to build a statistical model. (ie get data, run a regression, analyse the R^2, check for multicollinearity etc....) I thought it might be fun to try to build a model on what makes a successful low limit hold'em player.
Here's what I was thinking about using for my variables:
The concensus seems to be tight-aggressive play is the best way to win long-term.
I thought to test this I would use my poker tracker data and examine all players I have data for over 500 hands (too few? - I think so, but it's hard to get more)...
Anyway, I thought I would use BB/100 as the dependent variable, and VP$IP and Agression Factor as independent variables, and see what excel came up with.
Right now I don't have enough data to make a meaningful regression (I am data-mining 1-2 as I type this).
My questions are:
1.) Is it feasible to create a statistical model like this? (ie are there too many random variables - luck etc - to create a model like this?)
2.) What would you recommend using as independent and dependent variables?
3.) What do you think the minimum amount of observed hands should be for inclusion in the model?
Any advice you could provide would be greatly, GREATLY appreciated.
I'm in an intro statistics course and we were given an assignment to build a statistical model. (ie get data, run a regression, analyse the R^2, check for multicollinearity etc....) I thought it might be fun to try to build a model on what makes a successful low limit hold'em player.
Here's what I was thinking about using for my variables:
The concensus seems to be tight-aggressive play is the best way to win long-term.
I thought to test this I would use my poker tracker data and examine all players I have data for over 500 hands (too few? - I think so, but it's hard to get more)...
Anyway, I thought I would use BB/100 as the dependent variable, and VP$IP and Agression Factor as independent variables, and see what excel came up with.
Right now I don't have enough data to make a meaningful regression (I am data-mining 1-2 as I type this).
My questions are:
1.) Is it feasible to create a statistical model like this? (ie are there too many random variables - luck etc - to create a model like this?)
2.) What would you recommend using as independent and dependent variables?
3.) What do you think the minimum amount of observed hands should be for inclusion in the model?
Any advice you could provide would be greatly, GREATLY appreciated.