$20/$40 high: routine fold

[Bartholow]

Seems routine, though I'm surprised sometimes by plays like this that turn out to be something silly like a 3-flush /images/graemlins/wink.gif. Anyone find a fold earlier?

7 Card Stud High ($20/$40), Ante $2, Bring-In $5 (converter (http://j.1asphost.com/greenage))

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls___raises
Seat 3: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls___folds
Hero: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___completes___calls
Seat 6: xx xx Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (5.20 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets
Hero: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls

5th Street - (3.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Hero: A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds

Total pot: (3.60 BB)

Looks good to me. I wouldn't fold 4th. I think you have to see this one to 5th. If he bricks 5th, a call might be justified.

[mscags]

NH

[BeerMoney]

Monster laydown!!! you probably got lucky in that you were able to let go of this early.

[beta1607]

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I'm surprised sometimes by plays like this that turn out to be something silly like a 3-flush

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Only Beermoney does this.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone find a fold earlier?


[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.

What an ugly situation for a nice starting hand. Not knowing your opponent, I'll assume like you that he is raising a big pocket pair. If we give him that, and he raised J's, there is an argument for a fold on 4th. When the K hits him on 4th, there are 7 combinations of high pocket pairs that beat Jacks possible. He could have the case Qs, in which case you would have an easy call. There are three combinations of Ks he could have in the hole, which leaves you virtually locked out. There are three combinations of aces, which leaves you in a very bad spot. Regardless, you are trailing little once or trailing large six times, and if you wanted to dump it on 4th street, I would have no complaints.

[benwood]

Howling, you're exactly right. I had given no thought to folding 4th until I read your analysis. You're getting 7 to 1 current odds to call 4th, & this is sufficient only against pocket Q's in his hand. Good job. Ben.

Thank you Ben, and your response had me re-analyze the hand.
I think there were 5.2 sb listed on 4th street, so by calling he would be getting 6.2-1, close enough to what you said, but the reverse implied odds make his situation even worse. To see the river from 4th street, where there are 3.6 b bets in, he is going to have to put in 2.5 bets, and will be getting only 1.44-1, just to see the river. I started this further review, because driving in my car I forgot to include the other pair of J's as his possible pocket pair. So he could be favored, albiet slightly, over this one hand. I reviewed the betting, and realized I had completely missed the most obvious hand. If I read the converter correctly, the 7h is the first to call the bring in. He does so, then AFTER it is raised and comes around to him, he re-raises. So he passed his first chance to raise, then popped it. Did he get mad with the other J's "I know you don't have J's, I have 'em!"? Slow play two dead Q's? Not likely. Slow play K's or aces, very possible. Slow play 777? Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner. So the only unlikely hand we can beat on 4th street is the other pair of JJ. We also have the possible but unlikely QQ. With the obvious now staring me in the face, we have six combinations of sets we can be up against on the turn, K's or 7's, and three combinations of aces. So we have nine likely slow played possibilities (AA)7 (KK)7 (77)7, and two very unlikely ones, (JJ)7 (QQ)7. This combined with the reverse implied odds makes this an easy fold on fourth.

[Bartholow]

Obviously this thinking is part of why I asked about this hand, but do you think it is proper to completely discount (A7)7 or (K7)7 or a 3 flush? Or even just someone being silly? I had no read on the player.

I think if you factor in some chance of the opponent being full of it, it becomes much trickier.

Obviously there is a reasonably good chance that he could have a pair of sevens with a big kicker, or a big three flush. There are a number of hands which play better heads up here, and, if he decides to play with them, he would be correct to raise with them, even if he is not ahead on third.

Having said all that, there are very few hands like that which are playable, and don't contain either an ace or a king. Given that it seems you are very likely to be behind, and there is a fair chance that you are badly behind, (kings up or better), then I think it is a good fold. Assuming that villain understands when he should play heads-up and when he would prefer multi-way, (thus significantly widening his hand range), then I think 4th is a call.

You have to make a reasonable read given no other information. If you have seen the player show (44)7 after such a play, then you must call more. Given the lack of knowledge, I am going to assume a sane person. Is he re-raising to knock out the only other player in the hand with a three flush? I strongly doubt it, and I am going to pretty much eliminate it from my read of this hand. The split 7's with the high kicker occurred to me, but I didn't add them to muddy the waters too much---but---here we go...

If a player is willing to take a stand early with (7K)7 or (A7)7, I usually find that they will lead with it, raising it, hoping that another high pair will thin the field, or just take down the antes right away. He might have limped in, then saw a chance to play the 7's with a high kick heads up, and raised. After the K hits him on 4th street, there are:
A)1 combination of (QQ)7K
B)1 combination of (JJ)7K
C)3 comb. (KK)7K
D)3 comb. (AA)7K
E)3 comb. of (77)7K
F)9 comb. of (7K)7K
G)9 comb. of (7A)7K
If (F.) you are a 75-25 dog
If (G.) you are a 60-40 fav

In pure mathmatics in these 29 chances, you are favored, slightly, 10 times, 34% of the time.

You are almost even money against (QQ)7, 3.5%

You are a significant dog the other 18 times:
19-1 vs. KKK
8-1 vs. 777
2-1 vs.AA
3-1 vs. KK77

Given that the way this hand was played, I think the hands you are most likely up against, in order, are---
(77)7K and (AA)7K

then the next level of possiblities are---
(KK)7K, (7A)7K and (7K)7K

In all but one of these you are a big dog, and favored slight over the (7A)7K

There are two things here---the pure mathmatics or odds of holding a particular hand, and given that they held that hand, the likelyhood they would have played it the way they did.

I therefor think that even though the combinations of rolled 7's and pocket aces are less than the split 7's with kicker, I think that they are most likely.

Add to the fact you are so much of a dog when behind, I stand by my earlier statement---Fold on fourth.

(If later you reply that he showed his cards and they were (5H 3H) 7H Kc As I will hunt you down like a dirty dog /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[Bartholow]

Nope, he didn't show his hand.

You might be right about folding 4th, even though I think you are underestimating the odds that he is messing around.

[grb137]

unless this guy has shown a lot of aggression in previous hands, he is screaming huge PP by his play on 3rd. I would call 3rd and look for another J or another A on 4th - everything should be considered is a brick and an easy fold.

-grb

Also, given that this is the 20/40 game, and people should be paying attention, if you fold fourth then it looks pretty weak tight. In a game where some players will muck around, it gives a message that all you need to take the pot is to reraise and then catch a moderately scary card on fourth. I think, if you include some big three flushes, which are legitimate hands to try and get heads up with, then a call is correct, and then re-evaluate on fifth.

[Bartholow]

We're pretty much on the same page, except if you fold 4th most players will just think you didn't have much when you raised 3rd.

So they are more likely to call you when you have a hand and you can look to get paid.

[Bartholow]

I wouldn't characterize getting called more as particularly a good thing in stud, though it is pretty close with low antes like these (it is possible to play in these games in such a way that you do want to get called, but I don't and I still don't think it is the most profitable way either). Mason wrote an essay about that, probably someone with a better memory can tell you where it is. One of the Poker Essays books I think but could be somewhere else.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the Poker Essays books I think

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Yeah, should be one of the essays about image.

[CarlosChadha]

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unless this guy has shown a lot of aggression in previous hands, he is screaming huge PP by his play on 3rd. I would call 3rd and look for another J or another A on 4th - everything should be considered is a brick and an easy fold.

-grb

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If this is your 4th st. plan, then you should be folding on 3rd because you don't have nearly the correct number of outsw to hit an A or J on 4th. Unless I knew this guy to be a rock (and rocks don't limp reraise with much else besides wired As or rolled 7s) I'd definitely plan on seeing this hand until 5th st. The only way I fold 4th is if he hits an A, pairs his door card or perhaps catches a J and I catch a rag.

-Carlos

[BeerMoney]

Were you the guy I owned on Pacific today?