MyTurn2Raise
10-29-2005, 03:13 AM
A first for my POTWs this year as I play the over/under. I like Georgia/Florida Under 41
This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle.
Georgia so far this year:
Sat, Sep 3 Boise State W 48-13 --
Sat, Sep 10 South Carolina W 17-15 --
Sat, Sep 17 Louisiana-Monroe W 44-7 --
Sat, Sep 24 at Mississippi State W 23-10 --
Sat, Oct 8 at (25) Tennessee W 27-14 --
Sat, Oct 15 at Vanderbilt W 34-17 --
Sat, Oct 22 Arkansas W 23-20 --
Florida so far this year:
at, Sep 3 Wyoming W 32-14 Audio
Sat, Sep 10 Louisiana Tech W 41-3 Audio
Sat, Sep 17 (25) Tennessee W 16-7 Audio
Sat, Sep 24 at Kentucky W 49-28 Audio
Sat, Oct 1 at (5) Alabama L 3-31 Audio
Sat, Oct 8 Mississippi State W 35-9 Audio
Sat, Oct 15 at (7) LSU L 17-21 Audio
Notice Florida's games against Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU. They struggled big time to score against quality Ds and will be up against another one this week with Georgia. Georgia is only allowing 293 ypg (184 passing, 109 rushing). The D is also getting much healthier as 2 starters return to full strength this week for the cocktail party. The Florida O is putting up 383 ypg (237 pass,137 rush). But, Leak is not 100% and the offense has struggled mightily against premium Ds.
Georgia is averaging 420 ypg, but that was with Shockley. The back-up will drag them down. The Florida D will have an even bigger effect. The gators give up 272 ypg! (176 pass, 96 rush). Georgia's O, which has produced all year, will struggle in this one. The QB effect is not as big as people might think, but it does hurt the Dogs to have a new QB face Florida in his first start. I see jitters and incompletions early.
As long as turnovers within the offense own 30s are kept at 2 or below, I see an easy under. However, it is very likely that there will be a defensive score in this game. I am accounting for it.
I handicapped a Georgia 17, Florida 16 final. A full touchdown less than the over/under. That's good value in my book.
My POTW#9 is Georgia/Florida Under41
FYI-I'm 5-3 on POTW so far and 12-5 NCAA ytd on 2+2 recommendations
I also bet early in the week on Wisconsin -18 @ Illinois and still see value upto Wisky -21...see that thread for more details.
This game has all the makings of a defensive struggle.
Georgia so far this year:
Sat, Sep 3 Boise State W 48-13 --
Sat, Sep 10 South Carolina W 17-15 --
Sat, Sep 17 Louisiana-Monroe W 44-7 --
Sat, Sep 24 at Mississippi State W 23-10 --
Sat, Oct 8 at (25) Tennessee W 27-14 --
Sat, Oct 15 at Vanderbilt W 34-17 --
Sat, Oct 22 Arkansas W 23-20 --
Florida so far this year:
at, Sep 3 Wyoming W 32-14 Audio
Sat, Sep 10 Louisiana Tech W 41-3 Audio
Sat, Sep 17 (25) Tennessee W 16-7 Audio
Sat, Sep 24 at Kentucky W 49-28 Audio
Sat, Oct 1 at (5) Alabama L 3-31 Audio
Sat, Oct 8 Mississippi State W 35-9 Audio
Sat, Oct 15 at (7) LSU L 17-21 Audio
Notice Florida's games against Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU. They struggled big time to score against quality Ds and will be up against another one this week with Georgia. Georgia is only allowing 293 ypg (184 passing, 109 rushing). The D is also getting much healthier as 2 starters return to full strength this week for the cocktail party. The Florida O is putting up 383 ypg (237 pass,137 rush). But, Leak is not 100% and the offense has struggled mightily against premium Ds.
Georgia is averaging 420 ypg, but that was with Shockley. The back-up will drag them down. The Florida D will have an even bigger effect. The gators give up 272 ypg! (176 pass, 96 rush). Georgia's O, which has produced all year, will struggle in this one. The QB effect is not as big as people might think, but it does hurt the Dogs to have a new QB face Florida in his first start. I see jitters and incompletions early.
As long as turnovers within the offense own 30s are kept at 2 or below, I see an easy under. However, it is very likely that there will be a defensive score in this game. I am accounting for it.
I handicapped a Georgia 17, Florida 16 final. A full touchdown less than the over/under. That's good value in my book.
My POTW#9 is Georgia/Florida Under41
FYI-I'm 5-3 on POTW so far and 12-5 NCAA ytd on 2+2 recommendations
I also bet early in the week on Wisconsin -18 @ Illinois and still see value upto Wisky -21...see that thread for more details.