A hand from Wynn last weekend need your thoughts

$1-2 blind game, everyone was deep $500+. The game was wide open at this point with big pots and several players in every hand.

I'm in mid position with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 10/images/graemlins/spade.gif j/images/graemlins/club.gif k/images/graemlins/heart.gif after the straddle and a call I i make it $20, the button calles as does the bb and utg. Flop is 8/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2:dlub: checked to me I bet $60 the button calls other 2 fold. Turn is 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, I bet $200 the button moves in for a total of $540.

Here is my thinking I have the nuts, no card can make a better straight. The only hand I don't want to see is the 9 10 with a heart draw. The button wasn't playing a whole lot of hands but I had seen him move his stack in a couple of times without being called. He had just seen me put about $400 into a pot and let it go on the river when the board paired off. So may be he is trying to move me off my hand with a set or flush draw. The more I think about it the more it looks like the straight with a flush draw.

My question is this, can you lay this down? It is $340 more into a big pot. If he has 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 10/images/graemlins/heart.gif I still have 4 outs to scoop him. If I had no re-draw can I lay this down? or do I call for half the pot and try to dodge the free role? Does the chance he may have a set or flush draw make it an easy call?

[scdavis0]

The idea of folding is utterly ridiculous.

[Spellmen]

I think if this is a small pot you can let it go, but I think at this point you are priced in

[Tilt]

Worst case scenarios (save a duplicated hand with a heart draw)are a freerolling straight, a set + plush draw, or a set + T hight straight.

Against a pure freeroll....
Ts 9s Jc Kh 3 7.50 8 20.00 29 72.50 0.438
Kc Td Ah 9h 8 20.00 3 7.50 29 72.50 0.562

Pretty easy call.

Against a set + flush draw:
Ts 9s Jc Kh 23 57.50 17 42.50 0 0.00 0.575
8s Kc Ah 8h 17 42.50 23 57.50 0 0.00 0.425

You are ahead, so call.

Set + straight

Ts 9s Jc Kh 4 10.00 10 25.00 26 65.00 0.425
8s Td 9d 8h 10 25.00 4 10.00 26 65.00 0.575

With likely equity of at least 43%, I think a call is in order. Of course, he could have all 3, in which case you are screwed:

Ts 9s Jc Kh 3 7.50 17 42.50 20 50.00 0.325
8s Td 9h 8h 17 42.50 3 7.50 20 50.00 0.675

But thats just omaha if it happens IMO.

OK, your absolute worst case scenario is that he has a hand like 9TJQds in clubs and hearts. I think we can safely call that sheer paranoia. 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif xx (no J) has you 55/45.

Suppose the smaller of your 2 stacks after the turn card came was $2900. If you were able to get it all-in now against 9hThxx (no J) the final pot would be $6000 and it would cost you another $2700 to see it. Your equity in the pot is 0.45*6000 = $2700. If the stacks are any shallower then this is +EV. It's only -EV if the satcks are deeper than $2900. I assume they're not THAT deep.

If your opponent has a hand that has you 40/60 (like 9TJx with 2 hearts or clubs) then all-in is +EV for stacks under $1400. Even in the worst case scenario where you're 30/70 then all-in is +EV for stacks under $650.

My big worry is that he has 9T, no flush redraws and will bluff you out if a club/heart/pair hits. That's the REAL -EV play. Since you have pot odds against all but the worst case scenario (and you might even have odds if one of your stacks is under $650) I'd go all-in now. At least I would if I had time to analyze it this much.

Ok, got carried away there. A call-see flop-check bad-call line will save you money against scenarios where you're getting free-rolled.

Just to clarify something, does "moves in" mean the same thing as "moves all-in"?

If so, you should call even if you could see his Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif hand.

Yes he was all in for $540. Thanks for the responses. This was the kind of thing I was looking for. The fact I had 4-6 outs to scoop the pot made it an easy call in my mind. I just wanted to see what the thoughts were if I was in a suituation where I was playing for half the pot. Getting free rolled or having a free roll against someone is such a common situation in PLO. I just wanted to see what some thoughts were on it.

Result: I called the $340 more and he showed A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 10/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif the river brought a 10/images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I scooped the pot. I was happy I made the right read and thought I made the right decision by calling.

[BluffTHIS!]

The result showed the reason that you should not have folded, i.e., that even though he had a heart redraw, you had a redraw to a better straight. And these types of situations are not as dangerous as when you flop a straight with no redraws and someone has a freeroll with 2 cards coming to hit.

[LA_Price]

Given your raise pre-flop, the money left, the fact you have a redraw to a bigger straight and your bet on the flop no you can't pass this. In fact i'd be thrilled to get raised. I suspect you got shown the straight just because the simple fact you asked if you should lay it down but often people will raise with much less here given the way you played the hand.

[Acesover8s]

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Ok, got carried away there. A call-see flop-check bad-call line will save you money against scenarios where you're getting free-rolled.


[/ QUOTE ]

And will cost you lots of money when your opponent hits a draw you give him a free card to hit.

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And will cost you lots of money when your opponent hits a draw you give him a free card to hit.

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Oh I realize that. That comment was meant for the extraodrinary proposition that each player has well over 1000BB left in his stack. Maybe I should have been clearer.