Question on counting outs

[Koss]

Here's a situation I find myself running into frequently, and I'm wondering how to handle it. Say I've got AQ in the SB, a couple limpers, I raise BB calls, limpers call, 4 to the flop. Flop is something like A82 rainbow. I bet, 2 calls. Turn is a 3. I bet, now the BB raises. I know that my hand has a very slim chance of actually being good here, but how should I proceed? He could have a set, straight, or any 2 pair. How many outs do we value our kicker, another A, or the board pairing in this spot? I know that overcards are usually counted at 1.5 outs each. Here we've got a similar situation where we might have some outs, but no idea knowing which cards those are. With the exceptions of monster pots I've usually been folding the river UI, and calling a bet when I make aces up or better. Assuming standard fairly loose non-tricky opponents here, how many outs do you give yourself in these spots?

[Paxosmotic]

Against a set we have about .5 outs, against A8 we have 3 outs, against A3 we have 6 outs, and against A2 we have 9 outs. Assuming he's only making this move with those hands (pretty reasonable), and there are 9 sets he can have and 2 of each suited aces, I'd give us:

.5(9) + 3(2) + 6(2) + 9(2) = 40.5 / 15 different hands = 2.7 outs sounds pretty reasonable.

[@bsolute_luck]

we don't have any outs against a set, not that that changes much. lowers the figure to 2.4.

to OP: i think your turn-river plan is fine on this hand.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
we don't have any outs against a set, not that that changes much. lowers the figure to 2.4.

to OP: i think your turn-river plan is fine on this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
My initial calculation said we didn't have any outs against a set and I reached the conclusion of 2.4 as well. Then I thought about it a bit more. I assure you, we do. Think about it, you'll realize the same thing I did.

[@bsolute_luck]

whew. you got me stumped /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Hero: AQ
Villain: set of 8s

Board: A 8 2 3

we have no straight or split possible and our 2nd Ace gives him a fullhouse. what am i missing?

Often in these spots you have to decide how possible it is that you have the best hand since you will rarely have the right odds to chase.

[Koss]

I don't see any outs against a set either.

I like the analysis. Putting a loose player on suited aces is a bit too tight I think, but I understand the idea. The tighter the player the more likely I'm drawing dead and should just dump the turn. Also I see now that the when the board has more cards that could fill more common 2 pairs I likely have more outs than on a ragged board like this where a lot of the 2 pair hands will be folded preflop even by loose players.

I'm always a little more worried about 2 pair when 2 connected cards appear on the board, because those fish love connectors, and always seem to pair both of them. A board of A92 seems a lot better than A78 when I've got AK.

I was just trying to get a little better idea of how I should handle these situations. Thanks!

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that my hand has a very slim chance of actually being good here

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't discount this too much in such a large pot.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
whew. you got me stumped /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Hero: AQ
Villain: set of 8s

Board: A 8 2 3

we have no straight or split possible and our 2nd Ace gives him a fullhouse. what am i missing?

[/ QUOTE ]
You have to think abstractly. What you have to do is realize that I'm a complete moron who made not one but two posts in this thread assuming that a board of A823 meant we had two cards left to go and could catch either AA, AQ, or QQ to win the hand. Then you'll know how we can beat a set. You have to think outside the box, man.

[@bsolute_luck]

you play Texas Hold 'em 2.0 the advanced version. DUUUDE i am so jealous /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TomBrooks]

You still have decent chances of being good. He might have a weaker ace.

[Guthrie]

I read both your posts and agreed with you! I guess we'd feel pretty silly waiting for that sixth board card to give us a straight.