Fold My Set?

T10000 to start
Assume villain to be a very good player

Hero T12700 (CO)
Villain T8300 (BB)
50/100 Blinds

Hero dealt 4h4s

Two limpers, hero limps, villain raises to 400, limpers fold, hero calls.

Flop 3h,4c,5h

Villain bets 800, hero raises to 2000, villain calls

Turn Ad

Villain is allin, hero????

My thinking was that he had AK,AQ, or 88-JJ
In retrospect, I'm not so sure my play on the flop was very good.

Would he go all in with TP or 2 pair?
Any chance he played AA this way?

Comments appreciated.

[pineapple888]

I put him on [AA-JJ, AK, AQ]. I think he would just limp with smaller PP and play for set value.

Hard to see how he has a piece of that flop, unless he has AK or AQ of hearts. If I had to narrow it down, that's what I'd put him on. He's got the inside straight draw as well, of course.

He could play AA that way as well, although I'm having trouble with the flat call on the flop in that case, unless he's really sneaky and wanted to gamble.

So, I guess I'd put him on top pair with a strong draw, grit my teeth, and call.

[TomHimself]

looks like AKh or sumthing, i think i make the call. i dont see him having any hand that has made a str8

[0evg0]

AA/AKh/AQh/AJh seems right. Those are the only hands you need to be worried about. Even against this range only you're 42%, so throwing in 10% for bluffs, and xx% for times villain is semi-bluffing but behind and I think you have to call.

I expect the result of this hand to be him holding AA though.

I call, he has 8s8c, river is an A, and I take it down.

[cferejohn]

No way you can fold this. He can't have a 2 unless in addition to being very good he's insanely aggressive. Your range of hands seems about right (though if it's AK/AQ I'm guessing they are hearts if he called that flop raise). There's exactly one reasonable hand you can put him on (AA) that is beating you, and tons that you are destroying. Call. I don't think it's close.

Thanks for all of the replies. What do you guys think of my raise to $2000 on the flop?

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all of the replies. What do you guys think of my raise to $2000 on the flop?

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I think it was fine. You certainly don't want to give a free card to an ace on that flop, and if he calls, you can pretty well put him on either some kind of overpair or a flush draw. You get chips into the pot as a very likely favorite and you get some information.

Of course he's going to fold some hands here you'd rather he call with (AQ/AK unsuited), but I don't think you want to get too cute with 3 cards of a wheel on the board.

Also, look what it did to him. From his perspective, you limped something in MP after 2 limpers and then called a raise closing the action (love those EP limpers who then fold for a bet of 4x the BB btw). When you raise the flop, he's probably thinking "overpair" and he probably suspects he might be beaten (and the 2 overpairs to the board that don't beat him both have outs to the straight). When the ace comes out, he figures this is a chance to push you off of your 99/TT. At least, that's my best guess at his reasoning for the push.

I agree. I think I disguised my set reasonably well there.
I probably would have just called the flop if the board had been less coordinated. The other option would have been to push on the flop. I wonder if he would have called that. My guess is that you are right and that he figured representing the A would push me off of my overpair.

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. I think I disguised my set reasonably well there.
I probably would have just called the flop if the board had been less coordinated. The other option would have been to push on the flop. I wonder if he would have called that. My guess is that you are right and that he figured representing the A would push me off of my overpair.

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One reason I don't really like his move is I'm not sure why he doesn't put you on AK-AJ of hearts there (ok, that would be a pretty weird way to play AKh, but I've certainly seen it done). Perhaps he figures those hands would have just called the flop bet.

[schwza]

yeah, i like the flop raise. give him a chance to make an aggro reraise with 99 or AQ. you kind of want to give him a chance to turn a pair, but you're not psyched about giving a gut shot to Ax and you don't want action killing cards to come.

folding the turn would be horrible.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, i like the flop raise. give him a chance to make an aggro reraise with 99 or AQ. you kind of want to give him a chance to turn a pair, but you're not psyched about giving a gut shot to Ax and you don't want action killing cards to come.

folding the turn would be horrible.

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Agreed on both counts. Last thing you want is any ace getting a free card on that board. Any overpair could play it this way. Even if he has a made straight (which would be shocking, but remotely possible with 22 perhaps) you have outs.

Some have said you wouldn't be far wrong if you NEVER folded a set. This is particularly true heads-up. I need something extreme like a three-card straight flush to even consider it.

[TheJackal]

Looks like a call to me. He could have aces up, 33, or maybe Ah with another heart. By some outside chance he has a 2 in his hand, you still have 10 outs, 22% chance of outdrawing him.

Anyone think that pushing on he flop is the best line?

I think you're raise on the flop is correct, and i'm pushing with on the turn. He probably puts you on 8-8 through J-J.

Get'em in on the turn.

I think the flop raise was the right way to go. Why go all-in and take the chance of possibly scaring him off? I'm looking to double up with this hand. Granted the board is scary but if he's got AA,22 or hits his flush on the river,well it just wasn't your day. I can't hit the call button fast enough.