ROI to ITM Calculation

Hello,

Trying to understand more about sit n' go's. Preemptively, yes, I used the search function and looked through a bunch, but couldn't find anything about this because ROI and ITM returned insane #'s of results.

In the FAQ's post pinned at the top of this forum, there is a table of sustainable ROI's for various stakes of sit n go, and a listed maximum ITM%. The ROI's ranged from 25% for the 5+1's and down to 6% for 200+15's. However, it was stated that the ITM% capped at 4/9ths, regardless of whether you were playing for pennies or thousands of dollars, due to the luck factor involved in poker.

My question is this: if your ITM% is constant accross limits, why does ROI go down?

For a 5+1 player with a 45% ITM%:
profit/tourney = .45(25+15+10/3) - 6 = $1.5 dollar/tourney.

ROI = 7.5$/$6 = 25%.

For a 50+5 player with a 45% ITM%:
profit/tourney = .45(250+150+100/3) - 55=$20 dollar/tourney.

ROI = $75/$55 = 36%.

The ROI actually goes up given a constant ITM, due to the reduced rake. Given a constant rake, the ROI's would be identical.

What am I doing wrong? Understanding that ROI = $payout/$paid for tourneys, and your $payout should be directly proportional to your ITM%, why does ROI go down with increases in stakes instead of up? I must be missing something.

Thanks for replies

[kyro]

I'm not sure why the ITM is capped at 44%. That also goes down as you move up limits. That was probably just a broad generalization on the easiest of games.

[pooh74]

My question is this: if your ITM% is constant accross limits, why does ROI go down?

ITM shouldnt be constant...if the faq referred to a cap, that's all it is, an upward ceiling, but don't imagine it to be constant. Furthermore, place distribution in the top 3 may be less top heavy as you go up in limits, accounting for even more loss in ROI.

ahh, so ITM does go down, makes sense. In that case, what is a solid ITM% for a 30+3 party player?

Also, does anyone have the average time/tournament for a 30+3? I'd imagine somewhere between 30-35 minutes. I'm talking about how long the average player plays in the average tournament.

Thx

[AleoMagus]

the 4/9 figure was suggested once as an upper maximum. This was debated a bit, but is probably at least close to correct

keep in mind though that this is only a maximum theoretical value

In reality people post very large samples which exceed this, and in reality this is impossible at the high high stakes.

At high stakes, many excellent players are barely over 35%, and they are happy about it.

Just convert the suggested ROI maximums back to ITM% in the opposite manner which you have been, and it should give you some idea of reasonable ITM values. In other words, you are doing it right.

Regards
Brad S

[kyro]

30-35 minutes seems a bit high. I think the average tourney lasts about 40 minutes (though I could be wrong).

As for a decent ITM? Well 30% will make you breakeven minus the rake. 35% would be a pretty solid ITM I would think. But remember, you're playing for money...not money finishes, and there is a difference. I can guarantee you that I could increase my long-term ITM stat at the levels I play in, but I choose not to do so, because occasionally I'll sacrifice a 3rd for the chance of first.

[Hornacek]

I've played over 2000 $30+3 SNGs with a 40% ITM and 22% ROI.

[RedBean]

The main determining effect on ROI is the amount of 1sts in relation to 2nd and 3rds. The FAQ list a decreasing expectation of ROI due to the relative decrease in 1sts and subsequent higher levels in relation to 2nds and 3rds.

You can have a breakeven or even losing run with 40% ITM, and someone else can have a gaudy 30% ROI with only 36% ITM.

In other terms, ITM is kinda like batting average, and ROI is kinda like Slugging Percentage.

For example, Ozzie Smith and Barry Bonds may both hit around .300, but it is those 40-50 dingers that Barry puts on the board giving him a gaudy .700 SLG pct, and thus by far increases his value and runs scored for the team, while the Wizard may be batting at the same clip, his lonely two dingers and assortment of bloop singles do little to help the bottom line.

Remember, one 1st is better than two 3rds, and all ITM's are not created equal.....

[kyro]

good job?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
good job?

[/ QUOTE ]

uh... move up?

[Nicholasp27]

u can be itm 40% of the time and have a -roi (all 3rds) or a hugely positive roi (all 1sts) or somewhere in between

[citanul]

11 EF
40% 3rds
10 tournaments
110 buyins
120 cashes
10 profit
10>0
roi>0

c, who assumes party structure

[Nicholasp27]

3rd only plays 20, not 30 (that's 2nd place)

i don't know of any structure that would give 3rd more than 2.5 buyins, which is what is needed (.4*2.5=1)..if they did, they'd only have 7.5 to give to 1/2

[citanul]

haha, you're right.

c

[Thalum]

I was going to post a thread similar to where this one ended up, good thing I saw this first.

Here's my dilemma:
Party 11+1
ITM: 35%
ROI: 3%!!!
75 tournies (low sure but that's not the point of the post)
1st: %11
2nd: %12
3rd: %12

Yes I read the thread, and I realize ROI can vary greatly depending on the number of 1,2,3 finishes. How much higher should my 1st and 2nd finishes be then my 3rd to start generating dome decent ROI numbers? I think I'm playing pretty Ok, but maybe I need to bump up my 1st and 2nd finishes to get more of a ROI?

[tigerite]

35% is pretty low anyway. You won't really get a great ROI until that's somewhere around 37-38%, at which point your distribution should be something like 15/10/13

[ QUOTE ]
35% is pretty low anyway. You won't really get a great ROI until that's somewhere around 37-38%, at which point your distribution should be something like 15/10/13

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it that third place is more weighted than second place? Would it be better to make riskier moves on the bubble to secure a second place finish when its three-handed?

[tigerite]

You should always be aiming for first as much as possible when ITM because it pays 3x as much as 2nd once you get down to the last 3.. this results in more pushes and obviously losing more, but it is better for ROI in the long run

[RedBean]

[ QUOTE ]

Here's my dilemma:
Party 11+1
ITM: 35%
ROI: 3%!!!
75 tournies (low sure but that's not the point of the post)

Ok, but maybe I need to bump up my 1st and 2nd finishes to get more of a ROI?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to illustrate how small your sample size is...consider this....if you win your very next tourney at this level, added to the numbers above, your ROI would be around 10%.

[Nicholasp27]

if u are maximizing ev, then u are gonna get a lot of 3rds to go with your firsts....once u get hu, u'll usually have a decent stack and then get 1st often if u are a good hu player...but many times u won't get hu cause your aggression got u knocked out in 3rd

4/0/5=3/3/3