Anyone bail here?

[tripp0807]

PP 30+3 NL Tourney (1100 entries, about 850 left)

Blinds 50-100
Hero (T3250) in middle position with 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif calls to see a cheap flop, which has been permitted repeatedly when I'm in this position.

Villian 1 (T1300, just moved to table, no reads) miniraises to 100 from button

Small blind folds, BB (T1000, terrible calling station) calls.

Pot is T325

Flop: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets 150
I raise to 475, Villian pushes and BB folds.

Anyone get off this? I'll post results after a few comments.

Nope. It's such a small amount to call you have too. Not to mention you are probably winning. They most likely hold an ace with a spade kicker. Maybe KK, QQ with a spade. If this is the case then you are looking good as some of their outs now fill your boat.
Did they have trip aces?

[nightlyraver]

Villian starts w/ 1300 - miniraise (100) = 1200 - Hero's reraise (475) = t725. Villian's reraise is only t250!!! Against ANY holding except for 77 and AA you are getting the right price to call, even if he has a made flush. You cannot POSSIBLY put him exactly on a bigger set and ditch this hand. You MUST call this raise.

The times when you fold fearing a bigger set are extremely rare. Many pros argue that you should never fold fearing a bigger set. In any case, this is definately not one of those times.

[Exitonly]

nope, he won't always have the flush, and even if he ALWAYS did, you have the odds to suck out on him.

[tshak]

Please try and use your hand history as it is hard to follow the action and some parts of your post are inaccurate. For example, if Villian raises preflop than he raises to 200, not 100 given that the blinds are 50-100.

Taking the assumption that only three see a flop, there is a 650 pot at the flop. There is then 2575 in the pot after Villian pushes leaving you with an 825 call. You're getting better than 3:1 here. Even if Villian shows me K/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif I make this call. I'm only worried about AA or an unlikely 77 in which I pay off everytime. I think you'll see hands like AxK/images/graemlins/spade.gif with top pair and the flush draw more often than you'll see the made flush or top set.

[tripp0807]

Hencole,

Of course he had a set of A's - good call /images/graemlins/wink.gif

NightlyRaven,

Sorry about that, but I typo'ed Villian's initial stack as 1300 when it was actually *2*300 - I don't think that would change your analysis, and it did not change mine. It was about as close to an insta-call as could be; I'll lay down a set to a four-flush sometimes or a four-straight - but if I'm laying down a set to what I think is a higher set, then like Harrington (I think) said, I'm an idiot.

To the other posts, sorry about not using hand history, I'll do it next time. The board paired a seven on the turn and the river failed to deliver the case 3...my full house got the [censored] beaten out of it by his. Such is life.

easy call

[nsj]

I still haven't figured out if it was raised to 100 or 200, but the stack size is important. Definitely try to use the HH....

Villain having 2,300 instead of 1,300 does significantly change the math, although I still can't imagine you can get away from this. You'll see AxXs, 88s-KKs, 7A far more often than set over set, and even if he has the made flush, you have good odds to catch up.