($27) Just because they should fold...

[durron597]

Going through HHs. This hand was from awhile back. Anyone not push this?

Reads: he was shortstacked for awhile early, doubled up when he pushed my blind for less than 2xBB with A5, I called with A3 and lost. After that he had done a lot of taking pots away post flop, I don't think he raised preflop once he doubled up that hand but he was doing a ton of stopandgoing and other postflop aggression.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Hero (t4580)
UTG (t455)
Button (t3710)
SB (t4755)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1200</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4530</font>,

[tigerite]

If he's an idiot, no, I wouldn't push because they can't let those pretty Ax sooted go. They don't care about the small stack, doesn't even enter their mind.

[Hendricks433]

I push this all the time if their somewhat sensible.

[Bluff Daddy]

Most of the time against any kind of decent player I would push this but if I noticed he had never raised pf and now hes minraising I would probably just fold

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time against any kind of decent player I would push this but if I noticed he had never raised pf and now hes minraising I would probably just fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[schwza]

i like this push b/c you are still very likely to get itm if you lose.

[pooh74]

I would typically like villain to have a little less or myself to have a little more to do this, but I think this is very standard against a "thinking villain"...which begs the question, if villain is thinking, why would he minraise here? Therefore, he might not be thinking and you may get a call...

[sofere]

I push because when I get called and suckout, I get to hear some very colorful descriptions of my poker skills.

[ QUOTE ]
i like this push b/c you are still very likely to get itm if you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
I would typically like villain to have a little less or myself to have a little more to do this, but I think this is very standard against a "thinking villain"...which begs the question, if villain is thinking, why would he minraise here? Therefore, he might not be thinking and you may get a call...

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion, I think that's what it boils down to. I push pretty hard all the time in situations like this when I can tell people are stack conscious (as most sane people are); however, if the villian is acting erratic, I'm not crazy about the prospect of fighting for my life to stay ITM (if the shorty doubles up on his blind-out) when I'm a lock and in well stacked for ITM. If the stack gap was a tiny bit wider (where I felt I still had a near lock on 3rd), I'd be a bit more comfortable.

I would push anyway, though--I like to 'gamble' for excitement's sake when it's probably correct either way. I bet the equity, in a cosmic sense, all balances out for either move--with folding being lower variance.

It's an interesting hand, though (given the reads). Hope for more replies.

[durron597]

Alright, here's another question. How confident do you have to be that they will fold a big ace or a medium PP to push here?

[SCfuji]

the only hands i want them to fold are the big pairs. QQ+ and they will instacall. it doesnt matter if the shorty has 1 chip left. its the 77-JJ range that you want out. if this guy isnt a miniraiser hes the type to fold. if this guy is a miniraiser with all his hands pf then hope he doesnt have any of the big three. if he calls with AK sooted his a dumbass. if you dont have strong reads id push, because its going to be incorrect for him to call unless he has a real big monster.

so, not very confident to answer your question. if they call with the weaker pairs hes an idiot and is losing money even if i do have any two. if he calls with slick or overcards hes an idiot and is losing money even if i do have any two. if he calls with a huge pair hes a lucky idiot and is taking all my chips when i have any two. i love to bully in spots like these. i really dont think ive passed on one of these spots, ever (since i learned about them).

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, here's another question. How confident do you have to be that they will fold a big ace or a medium PP to push here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty confident, I think. With a little ICM/SNGPT mucking about it looks like you're in breakeven territory if he calls with 44+ a8+, but that's assuming he's got a random hand and you only get called about 1 time in 5. Given that he's raised here from a position of relative danger, he's got a hand at least that good far more often than 1 time in 5, and he's probably calling you a good bit more than that.

With a chip delta of 500-1000 more, this wouldn't be that big a problem, but I think I'm letting this one go rather than face the substantial risk of having to fight for 3rd.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
if he calls with a huge pair hes a lucky idiot

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, if he calls with a huge pair he's successfully trapped you for all of your chips as a huge favorite. So "lucky idiot" isn't exactly how I would describe him.