Nut straight on a one-suited board

$200 NL 6-max

You are in the BB with JTo (no hearts). You have $200, UTG has about $180. UTG min raises to $4, 2 callers and you also call. The flop is K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Pot is ~$17. You lead out for $12 and UTG raises to $30. Other two players fold. What is the best line here?

(Read: UTG is an average not great player who will overplay hands)

[Hattifnatt]

Call, lead or c/r a non heart non pair turn.

If you lead the turn 3/4pot to pot and he makes a big raise you can lay it down.

[PinkSteel]

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Call, lead or c/r a non heart non pair turn.

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Lead a blank turn, don't checkraise. Villain likely has a lone high /images/graemlins/heart.gif; a check will let him draw the river for free.

[JaBlue]

push as long as he'll call with KQ or A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK/A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ.

What hand range do you put the villain on? He min raised UTG (first time I saw him do it in about an hour). I dont have his PFR % but he seemed to be passive preflop.

[pho75]

I would put him on hands like AK,AA,KK,QQ,99 with or without the Ah. If he had a flush, what could he have minraised preflop with? AhJh, AhTh, 8h7h. Possible, but not likely. He raised you on the flop to protect his hand. The problem is that he might also want to protect the flush from a straight flush.

I did the math based on the hands I've indicated and their pure probabilities. It turns out that you are a 54-64% favorite depending on whether you think he may be running a pure bluff.

If my assumptions and math are correct, your job should be to try to get all the money in now as a heart on the turn would kill the action.

Those are alot of ifs though:)

Thats exactly what I was thinking. Results I pushed he called and showed AA (no heart). Obviously the call and lead turn line is better against players capable of folding AA-QQ, 99 or AK in that spot.

I /images/graemlins/heart.gif people who cant fold good hands