Small stack push

[HoldingFolding]

55. In general do you call these? Player 1 tight passive since bubble, player 2 (2+2?) educated.

Seat 1: Player 1 (725)
Seat 2: Player 2 (4885)
Seat 10: HERO (4390)
Player 2 posts small blind (200)
HERO posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 9c, 3c ]
Player 1 raises (725) to 725
Player 1 is all-In.
Player 2 calls (525)
Hero????

[tigerite]

You might as well, it's only t300 or so. If you hit the flop hard you could win the SNG right here.

[ChrisV]

Yes. Your pot odds are pretty good. Plus, Party players are all mysteriously of the belief that the best way to play any hand with a player allin is always to check it all the way to the river.

[Shillx]

Yeah I would call here if Player 2 isn't a fool and will bet A-high or something. You are getting like 6.5:1 on your money and are probably 20% to win (at worst). Assume a 40/40/20 win distribution.

My Math: Knocking the other player out gets you 6% of the pool. By giving him an extra T325, you lose 1.1% of the pool. You will make the best hand and he will make the 2nd best hand 10% of the time. He will win 40% of the time.

Brad's EV = 10%*6% - 40%*1.1% = ~ + .16%

ICM: So when you win, you have 41.7% of the pool. When shorty triples up you have 34.6% and when the other dude wins you have 37.3%.

If you fold, you will have 35.7% and 38.0% respectively.

EVfold = 38 + 35.7 / 2 = 36.9%
EVcall = .2*41.7 + .5*.8*(34.6 + 37.3) = 37.1%

Net EV = About + .2%

You will win more then 20% of the time so this is an easy call IMO.

Brad

[durron597]

I made a very similar post recently. This is not a clear "pot odds omg call!!!!1111"

It's important that you believe that the other big stack is willing to let you check it down with him to ensure that both of you have the best chance of busting the shorty. If that's true, it's definitely +CEV because you almost certainly have 20% equity in this pot.