Bet the river in LL holdem?

[Bob T.]

4-8 HE, Canterbury Park.

3 limpers to me in the CO, I have AK of hearts. I raise. The BB, and all three limpers call.

Flop A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .

Hmmm, the very aggressive BB bets, two callers, I raise, he three bets, both call, and it is back to me. I thought that he might have two pair, or he might be playing a combo draw like Qx or Jx of spades. I four bet. All call. There are a lot of cards that I don't want to see on the turn, any Q, J, T, and spades could make someones hand, if I am not already behind.

Turn, 6 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif . Great.

Checked to me, I bet, BB, and one MP call, other MP folds.

River, T /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif Now if he had worse two pair on the flop, he just made a full house. Both check to me looking defeated.

I bet, both call. Results below.












I show my hand and they muck.

I was a little surprised that my hand was good here, but I thought that the bet was correct because I was checked to on the river, and with so many scary things on the board, I don't think that I had to call a river checkraise.

The only thing that I can imagine that my opponents held was either AJ, or AQ, and I think that it might be likely that they both held AQ. I can't come up with any other justification for their call/muck on the end after so much action on the flop, and I thought that this hand is one that highlights the need to bet the river frequently in low limit holdem.

[SoBeDude]

Hi Bob,

I think you did a great job of playing the players here.

Just playing the cards and the action, there is no way you can bet that river (IMO).

I think you read the players, and made the right play.

Excellent job.

-Scott

[elysium]

hi bob
QT is a strong possible holding here. also, you could be up against a flopped straight. you're ok to bet only if you'll get the fold. i just don't think that you'll get that fold here though. you're ok to bet as long as you're a 2-1 favorite if raised. well, you can forget about that. i don't like the river bet. it's pretty awful bob.

i'm assuming you're betting based on tells. if you estimate that these opponents are beaten are beaten at the tell accurracy rate of say 75%, then it's unlikely that you'll get called. so a bet has nothing to gain. if they are giving some kind of tell that tells you that they are beaten, but even so that they will call,.....you run a 50/50 chance that what they are 'telling' you is that they have you beaten but don't think you'll bet. those two tells are extremely similar. tells are good in the correct environment, but on the river, it's pretty mathie. are you 2-1 favorite if raised? are you 55% if called? will you three-bet if check-raised?

i strongly believe that tells assist us in our decision making at the table. but mason makes an excellent point when he says that,'a tell only has value when it causes you to make a decision you otherwise wouldn't have made.'; to go against the math, in other words. and that's rare. a lot of times people assign a tell value simply by playing their hand all wrong. when ever you pick up a tell, never let influence your decision at a mathematical level. from LP position on the river, always give greater importance to math. this is an awful bet on the river here bob. no one knows that better than you. of course, you won. no way do you post this otherwise. but i do think here that you picked up on a great tell, only now this tell is so good, that you are assigning it value by betting when even mike caro wouldn't. on the river, it's all math.

[Bob T.]

are you 2-1 favorite if raised? are you 55% if called? ...
...on the river, it's all math.

Here is the math that I thought about.

The pot is big, and I might get called by both, so I probably only need to win about 40% of the time when called for this to be EV+.

The fact that they checked the river, and didn't look like they enjoyed the river card much, probably increases the chances that I am ahead, and that I won't get raised, and if I do get raised with a three suited, three straight, paired board, after I have shown nothing but strength, I don't think I need to pay anyone off with my two pair. Anyone who could raise with a hand that doesn't beat two pair, deserves the pot. So I don't need to be a 2-1 favorite to bet here, because I don't have to pay off a raise.

I also think that against thinking competition, I don't have a bet here, because I can't imagine being called by many hands that I can beat, but this was 4-8 live HE, and I although a lot of the scare cards were on the board, I still thought that given the action, I was ahead, and that I had a value bet here.

[AceHigh]

"I bet, both call. Results below."

I can't put BB on a hand I can beat with that river card, so I would probably check. Spades got there, straight was on flop, and bottom 2 or top and bottom pair filled up.

Did you have BB down as a total fish, or what made you bet? Because BB looks a lot like QJ who got scared of the flush and full house on turn and river.

[Bob T.]

I thought that he was someone who played hands overaggressively, especially drawing hands. I thought that he was a selective Maniac. When he didn't checkraise the turn, I thought that he might have two pair. I am almost certain that he would have found one more bet or raise with a flopped straight, and he looked at the river card like it was just another nail in his coffin. I think that the third player in the hand, knew that the BBs play could have been a little speculative, and knew that I knew that also.