AA capped pot. Do you value bet this river?

Villain is 21/13/1.5 after 30 hands. Do you value bet this river or check/call?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.40 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

River: (10.70 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[milesdyson]

what are you doing postflop?

[jason_t]

Let's talk about the other streets before we talk about the river. I'll start: wtf?

Point well taken. I was pretty sure I was up against kings and i messed up and acted too fast. I should have taken control on the flop, sure...

Now, given I played it bad, do you bet river?

I don't know if anyone agrees with this, but bet/fold might be a consideration here. We can get value from KK, and QQ, and an unlikely JJ or AK and when he does raise, I think he has KKd or AKd, a huge portion of the time. How often do people bluff raise these 4 diamond flushes? I think very rarely. Theses 4 flushes scare them from my experience.

P.S. How about some advice rather than berating the guy? Those posts are useless w/o some advice

[trentcroad]

I dont mind b/f here if this guy isnt too tricky because he seems to have taggy stats over the small sample.

[Webster]

I say what the others said - you migt have lost this hand because of your flop play.

The CO HAS to bet because you checked and then he HAS to bet because you only called.

I thin I check call the river knowing I screwed the pooch.

[jakbse]

no I don't. I find it strange you didn't raise that flop.

[TheHammer24]

It's either a bet/fold or check/call solely dependent on whether you think he'll bluff raise w.o a diamond.

I didn't raise the flop because I knew I was way ahead. The only hands I put him on were AK, AA, KK. It would have been very out of character of the table for him to have K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. So, most likely he has KK and I don't want him to fold because the only way he can now beat me is with runner runner.

Given that my read is correct, is this really that bad? -- don't I get more bets in the pot playing it the way I did rather than raising the flop?

[Dagger78]

Given the pre-flop action there is no reason to like you're nor going to get ALOT of bets out of this guy. You're giving up alot if he has AK,or QQ. Only if he has KK are you going to earn less bets. Against any other hands he's just going to call down most likely.

Get in the bets when you know he'll call and probably raise.

[shant]

Bet the flop bet the turn bet the river raise the next hand bet that flop bet that turn bet that river turn on your TV switch it to BET watch that for a while order a BLT but switch the lettuce to an egg so effectively you're eating a BET and if you feel like watching something while you eat I suggest the first season of "Bette" starring Bette Midler but the first thing you should do is just bet the flop and I'll bet you that's a better play than whatever the hell you just did.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the flop bet the turn bet the river raise the next hand bet that flop bet that turn bet that river turn on your TV switch it to BET watch that for a while order a BLT but switch the lettuce to an egg so effectively you're eating a BET and if you feel like watching something while you eat I suggest the first season of "Bette" starring Bette Midler but the first thing you should do is just bet the flop and I'll bet you that's a better play than whatever the hell you just did.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you like Bette Midler I suggest "Rochelle, Rochelle: The Musical."

[neuroman]

Check/call river. I really dislike a bet/fold, as I don't think it has much value. If he has the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif pay him off, if not, maybe we can induce a bluff.

[W. Deranged]

Here's the problem with your pre-river play:

1. If villain has AK, he's going to get pretty aggressive. He'll at least pay off a bet on every street and probably will put in at least one raise somewhere. So betting is better in this case because you'll get more bets in.

2. If villain has QQ he'll go really f'in crazy and so you just want to be juicing the pot for all it's worth.

Note that 1 and 2 rely on a similar idea: check-calling the flop and then check-raising the turn tends to KILL YOUR ACTION. Basically, that line assures that you will NEVER get more than one raise in against a hand like AK, and may even freighten a hand as good as QQ. Be careful with your action... it is a fragile being, and you should treat it tenderly.

3. If villain has KK, you actually probably do win more bets by betting. Many opponents are (sometimes rightly) so unwilling to give up on KK that they'll simply pay all the way down on an A high board. Your line, on the other hand, will tend to either: a) let villain check the turn behind and cause you to miss a turn bet; b) give villain an easy place to fold KK if he does bet the turn.

if the oppoenent is tricky and good check call if he is straight forward bet/fold.

ayight...you win...bad play on my part. He ended up showing KK and the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet/folded the river. I need to get better at knowing exactly what line i'm going to take almost as an unconscious reflex. This hand is a good example of me acting too fast. While sometimes acting quickly is good, in a pot like this with huge potential to be big it's worth taking the time to think and let the window for "fast action" go by so I can think through what the best line is. I'm not quite at the point where I can make these reflex decisions yet with every hand, but with a lot of hands I am there. Just more practice...