AQs in BB vs. UTG all-in

[Ulysses]

14 players left out of 40. Top 9 make the money. I only really care about the top 3 places.

Blinds are 80-160 w/ 20 ante, so there's about 400 in the middle to start.

I have about 4000, which is a slightly above average stack at my table. I am in the big blind w/ AQs.

A pretty bad player raises all-in UTG for 2300. Folded to me. I feel like he could be on a pretty wide range of hands here. I feel like I'm quite a bit better than most of my opponents at this table. If I win, I'm the chip leader at this table. If I lose, I'm one of the shortest stacks.

Call or fold?

[Fitz]

I'm just learning the NL tourney game, but let me give this a shot. You say he's weak, but he is under the gun, so I think you have to give him credit for decent hand. What hands can you put the guy on? Maybe a medium to large pocket pair 88-JJ, or AK, AQ, AJ? There is always the possibility he has one of big boys AA, KK, QQ, but since he's weak we'll put him on the first group and discount the three monsters. You are still a minor dog to an under pair; you are dominated by AK, slightly ahead of AQ because yours is suited and you dominate AJ. If you are a better player than those around you, and since you have a decent stack size, I'd toss in my AQs and wait for a better situation.

Just my opinion, and I'm still learning.

Good luck,

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Even if you can assume that he'd make this play with KQ, QJ or QT, remember this poker fact: Even the worst player on earth has the ability to be dealt AA.

Fold. You've still got a good sized stack relative to the blinds. No need to gamble here.

[ohkanada]

Fold. Why risk 1/2 your stack with AQ vs an UTG raiser? Not sure why the UTG raiser would bet all-in 15xBB but I would let this one go without much thought.

Ken Poklitar

[DaNoob]

As the others have stated, I think this is an easy muck. Just because he's a weak player, he doesn't necessarily have weak cards. It's funny, I find myself thinking this same thing quite often during tournament play, but it rarely turns out to be the case. In fact, I think quite the opposite is true in this situation. If he were a strong player, I would think it more likely that he would go all-in with a weaker hand, hoping to discourage callers.
A weak player, however, might get a good hand and go all-in, hoping to get a caller.

IMO, he's holding a decent to great PP and will have you beat going into the flop. Given your skill advantage over the rest of the table, I'd wait for a better opportunity to strike.

Just my 2 cents.

[eMarkM]

Easy fold. If he only has 22, you're still a slight dog. You'll get better opportunities than this.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Everyone else says fold, but I don't think it's so automatic. You imply he can be holding a wide range of hands. If this means any pair or any good A, you do have the easy fold. If this means any pair, any A, or any good K, then I'd say call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I'd fold. AQs won't be a big enough favorite over any hand to make it worth being the shortest stack.

Of course you only really care about the top three, so in that case I could concede that this is a good spot to take a chance. Just remember, you're not going to be a huge favorite over very many hands here, only hands like AJ or QT or the like.

al

[maplepig]

Since there's only one vote from Greg for a possible call, I'll make a second vote here for a call option. Depending on how loose this guy is, If he's going to push allin on AK, AQ, AJ, 66+, I'll often make the call. Let's say that if I know he has JJ, I'll call. I am putting in 2140 to win 4840, against JJ, this is slightly +EV. By calling, if I lose, I still have about 10x BB chips, enough to make good allin moves to pick up blind. If I win, I eliminate one player, and I have a better than average stack. When it's nearly money, above average stack is much stronger than the average stack. Many average stack turns themselves into tight survival to money mode, they usually play aggressively against short stack and each other, but are afraid to compete against the larger stacks. Further more, by calling, you established yourself as a loose caller. You will get a lot less allin move against you when blind is big, combined with your advantage of better than average stack, you are very well positioned to pick up a lot of chips until in the money. If you are aiming for top 3, it can actually be quite advantageous move if you know that this player is capable of moving allin with AJ. Of course, even bad players usually don't move allin with AJ UTG, so majority of the time it's a clear fold. I just want to point out that he doesn't need to be an "idiot" for you to make the call. If he's one of those Ace lover, you can often call.

[fnurt]

While I don't necessarily disagree with calling, I don't really think that calling from the BB with AQs is going to set you up as a "loose caller" who people will be reluctant to steal from in the future...

[Ulysses]

I folded.

I discussed this hand (separately) later w/ three good players at the cardroom. All with little hesitation said call.

In this specific case, turned out he had KK. But I later saw him move in w/ similar overbets w/ A5s, 66, and AJo.

Part of the reason I folded was because he was such a terrible player. I felt that he was much more likely to make such a huge bet w/ QQ/KK/AA than a better player. Of course, had I seen him move in w/ the hands I cited above prior to this hand, I would have definitely called.

[ohkanada]

And was he UTG with those other hands? And how big was the overbet in those other cases?

Maybe against this player calling is correct but I wouldn't make it a habit calling a huge overbet with AQ. I often see bad players make this huge overbet with AK/KK/QQ/JJ. Only JJ you are in okay shape.

Ken Poklitar

[Ulysses]

Thanks for the response, Ken. I'll heed the advice.

As for this player, these specific 3 hands were early, but only one was UTG. In each case he moved all-in, and the overbets were similar in relation to the BB.

My thinking was exactly the same as yours wrt being in bad shape against some very likely hands. The general thought from the players at the room was that I need to get some more chips soon to be in good shape at the final table and this is as good a situation as I'm likely to see.

As it turned out, I made the final table and placed 7th for a small win. My first finish in the money (5th try w/ two bubbles), so I was pleased.

Thanks to everyone here for their help.