Pre-Flop fold of JJ?

[ericlambi]

$200NL PP. Full Ring.

Set the stage: I have been at the table for only 20 minutes, and have gotten a crazy run of cards. The only hand I've shown down though was when some short stack stop-n-go'd me on a trash flop and I called him with Ace high (had AT), didn't improve, but won anyway. People have not been respecting my raises at all (I've been getting a raising hand about one in 3 for the last 3 or 4 orbits). They were calling post-flop every time I cont bet too . . . okay, so they thought I was full of it. On to the hand . . .

I get JJ from UTG+1, raise to $10. Folded to SB who re-raises me to $35. If he had a full stack I think I would have taken a flop, but he only had $70 more. I felt like in that instance I was either taking a coinflip with AK or way behind with AA/KK/QQ. Although some of the time he might do this with worse hands like TT/AQs/99/etc.

I folded. Thoughts?

If you agree with the fold, would you do the same with QQ?

[arod15]

[ QUOTE ]
$200NL PP. Full Ring.

Set the stage: I have been at the table for only 20 minutes, and have gotten a crazy run of cards. The only hand I've shown down though was when some short stack stop-n-go'd me on a trash flop and I called him with Ace high (had AT), didn't improve, but won anyway. People have not been respecting my raises at all (I've been getting a raising hand about one in 3 for the last 3 or 4 orbits). They were calling post-flop every time I cont bet too . . . okay, so they thought I was full of it. On to the hand . . .

I get JJ from UTG+1, raise to $10. Folded to SB who re-raises me to $35. If he had a full stack I think I would have taken a flop, but he only had $70 more. I felt like in that instance I was either taking a coinflip with AK or way behind with AA/KK/QQ. Although some of the time he might do this with worse hands like TT/AQs/99/etc.

I folded. Thoughts?

If you agree with the fold, would you do the same with QQ?

[/ QUOTE ]


I push here most times based on your image. and if you have QQ its not even close you push....
The only thing that influences is my stack size. The bigger it is the more likely im pushing. Well thats a lie im pushing there almost always, a rock could get me off the hand. Was opponent a rock? If he wasnt i dont like the lay down at all. This is a cash game not a tourney, take a shot there....

[ericlambi]

I have no read on this player other than that he definitely has not done anything unusual, and he was not involved in any of the other pots I played.

You think that he is likely to do this with AK or worse frequently? I honestly don't know how my table image affects this, but if I have a normal table image then I think it is rare for this to even be AK.

I'm not feeling pushing here . . . he will call with 100% certainty. Might as well look at the flop and check for an A or K if I want to play. Something tells me I can get him to put it in even if he doesn't improve.

[DJ Sensei]

Don't fold getting almost 2-1, the chances he has AK or something else definitely warrant it. (if you've been so aggressive lately, the chances he is reraising with AQ or TT or something worse are definitely greater)

Since you have position, i'd just call the raise and see a flop. Since you have position on him, you have an advantage after the flop and can make +EV decisions based on it.

Play the flop accordingly. I think you should be calling/pushing most hands, unless the flop has an ace and he pushes into you. If he checks an ace-high flop though, you need to push. Might get him to fold KK or QQ, and that would be sweet.

[ericlambi]

Okay, since the first two responders didn't like my fold, I started thinking about it harder, here's some deeper analysis:

16 combos of AK.
18 combos of AA/KK/QQ

Now I think the chances a player does this with AA/KK/QQ are much higher than the chances that he does this with AK or a hand I dominate. Let's say that 60% of the time he does this he has AA/KK/QQ, 30% of the time it's AK, and 10% of the time it is an even worse hand. Seem reasonable?

For simplification, let's say we are playing for his entire stack here, which is probably accurate. So I have to put in $105 to win $115. Basically 1-1 and I need to win 50% of the time.

If my earlier analysis about the probability of his holdings is close, it's easy to figure out how often I will win:

.6 * .20 + .3 * .6 + .1 * .8 = .38

This might be optimistic because I'm not sure JJ beats AK 60% of the time, and part of the 10% of other is AQ, which is still a coinflip. Anyway, 38% is significantly less than 50%, so if my simplified analysis is accurate, this is an easy fold. Now I do get a slight option on the hand since I can call and look at the flop, but that only helps me when an A or K actually falls. And it presumes that I can get his chips in even if one doesn't fall and he has AK, which is not guaranteed.

Okay, now that I've done all that, is this still an easy fold?

[arod15]

In this situation his postion and stack size favor him. He will likely push any flop since he is first to act. That will leave you in a tough spot especially if an overcard hits. I say your image affects it because you have been raising a lot in these last few orbits. Therefore, he might be getting annoyed and might be playing back at you. Even if you dont like the push if you had QQ its a push 100% of time. If an ace hits thats life but you did the right thing, get your money in with the best hand and highest likelihood of winning...

[scrapperdog]

I have no problem with someone folding Jacks to a big raise and a re-raise all-in before the action gets to you. Most of the time you are dominated or a coin flip. That is not what happened here.

Here you bet out and you say they are not respecting your bets. Then a short stack re-raises. He could be doing this with any pocket pair based on you image. Short stacks want to double up and are more willing to take a chance than someone sitting on 200BB. The fact that this person is a short stack makes me more willing to get involved.

[arod15]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no problem with someone folding Jacks to a big raise and a re-raise all-in before the action gets to you. Most of the time you are dominated or a coin flip. That is not what happened here.

Here you bet out and you say they are not respecting your bets. Then a short stack re-raises. He could be doing this with any pocket pair based on you image. Short stacks want to double up and are more willing to take a chance than someone sitting on 200BB. The fact that this person is a short stack makes me more willing to get involved.

[/ QUOTE ]
my thoughts exactly....

[ericlambi]

So you say he does this with 99, TT, AJ or worse more than my postulated 10%? He still has over 50BB, he is not that short. Also, since I am not really getting a great price here, I'm not super-excited about a coinflip with AK/AQ . . . I have a slight advantage, but after the rake gets taken out of a $200 pot, it really is a 1-1 situation. Okay, let's say he does this with a hand that is worse than AK 20% of the time . . . since some of these hands include Ax, I will only win those about 2/3 of the time, so let's say the 20% of the time he is worse than AK I win 75% of those. And let's say he does it every single time he has AK, instead of jus some of the time. Here we go:

34 total combinations of AK/AA/KK/QQ. If he has one of them 80% of the time, then

AA/KK/QQ -- .4235
AK -- .3765

.4235 * .2 + .3765 * .55 + .2 * .75 = .442

Still only 44% equity in the pot. If I did indeed hold QQ, then it probably would rise to over 50% in this somewhat optimistic calculation.

When I say they weren't respecting my raises, they are still passive calling stations. They were combatting me with trying to call me down, not getting aggro and re-raising. In most cases, my river value bet was too much for them to stomach, but I'm sure they were ignoring my raise in making their decision whether to play a pot or not and they were calling 100% of my post flop bets.

[scrapperdog]

Judgement call then if they have been that passive. Dont fault a laydown. If they are calling 100% of your post flop bets then obviously you can wait for a better spot. I would say at this point you have the table right where you want it.