Overpair turns OESD and faces aggression

[Kyriefurro]

Villain is 80/14/3.38 after about 200 hands. His aggression is frequently misplaced, and he's been caught betting and raising with bottom pair more than once. If he doesn't bet/raise, he'll pretty much call down with any pair.

He's also been taking shots at me off and on all evening after he discovered early on that I'll fold to a raise if I don't have a hand (imagine that! /images/graemlins/grin.gif).

Relative stacks:
Hero - 138
Button - 124

Hero in in CO w/ 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Preflop <font color="blue"> (4 players) </font> : SB posts a $.50 blind, BB posts a $1 blind, Hero <font color="red"> raises to $5 </font> , Button calls, SB folds, BB folds

($11.50) Flop <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>: 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif, 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Hero bets $11, Button calls

($33.50) Turn <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font>: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero bets $25, Button <font color="red"> raises to $50 </font>, Hero..........?

This play is not unusual for villain, I've seen it several times before this evening. It could mean TPTK, it could also mean a set. I've got 10 outs, and I'm pretty certain their all clean.

[ericlambi]

Against a normal player I would put them on a very strong hand here, call, hope to improve, and probably check/fold the river unless the bet is small.

Agains the player you describe, I re-raise all-in and hope for the best.

[Kyriefurro]

Bump for the morning crew. Anyone else like the idea of going all-in?

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump for the morning crew. Anyone else like the idea of going all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You said he'll pretty much call down with any pair, and after you push he's getting 3:1 or so to call -- that's after he's raised you. He's not folding, and if he doesn't you don't have pot odds to hit the straight.

[ericlambi]

Did you read this part:

Villain is 80/14/3.38 after about 200 hands. His aggression is frequently misplaced, and he's been caught betting and raising with bottom pair more than once. If he doesn't bet/raise, he'll pretty much call down with any pair.

He's also been taking shots at me off and on all evening after he discovered early on that I'll fold to a raise if I don't have a hand (imagine that! ).

[PinkSteel]

I did, and maybe I'm being a weak-tightie, but I just wouldn't push.

The relevant questions are, Are you ahead now? What are the odds to hit your draw? And what are the chances villain folds to your push?

I think I'm right about the latter two: you don't have pot odds on the draw, and villain isn't folding.

You may have a very good point about the first question, i.e., your overpair may be good right now. But despite his numbers I'm just not comfortable putting my stack in on the belief that my pair of nines will win a showdown.

What hand range do you see for villain? Any two basically?

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
What hand range do you see for villain? Any two basically?

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost literally. His VPIP was 80%, and he didn't seem to care how many raises came before him, or how big they were.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not folding, and if he doesn't you don't have pot odds to hit the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, if this raise was a case of him taking yet another shot at me (and that was a possibility), then he would fold. He'd done it before, although not often.

There are a lot of possible hands here. It could be a bluff. He could have spiked a set of 6's. He could have T9 for a straight. He could have TPTK. He could even have 6x and puts me on an unimproved AK. It's just a huge range. Which is why I'm confused lol.

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
...Which is why I'm confused lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm thinking of putting a sticky on my monitor:

"When confused, fold. When in doubt, fold."

Not saying this works for everyone, but it would sure save me $$$.

[djhoneybear]

Given they way this guy plays two pair is probably another range of hands to consider. Lets say there is a 20% chance he is bluffing because the board is scarey. There is a %30 percent chance you are ahead to his one pair. There is a 15% chance he has 2 pair and a %35 percent chance that he has trips or a straight.

These seem like conservative numbers given the opponent.
so:

20% of the time you win 95% (approx.)
30% of time you win 85%
15% you have 12 outs to win (25%)
35% you have 6 outs to win or tie (12%)

My numbers may be a little rough (I'm just doing this in my head like you might in this situation) but they seem like you have the right odds to continue. I think my numbers might also be a little conservative. Push all-in. If you do win the hand with a modest holding it will also send him a message for all future hands.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
20% of the time you win 95% (approx.)
30% of time you win 85%
15% you have 12 outs to win (25%)
35% you have 6 outs to win or tie (12%)

[/ QUOTE ]

I love the way you think. This is exactly the type of break down I try to make myself do when I play (although I don't always succeed). When this hand actually played out, I didn't actually put any numbers on it, but I did note all the possible hands villain had, and realized I was ahead of a lot of them, and had outs to beat most of the rest.

For what it's worth, I think the bluffing percent might have been even higher than 20% based on the shots he'd taken against me before. But 20% is a good, conservative estimate.

In the end villain showed 67o for two pair. Oh well.

[freehat]

All-in, there are also soooooo many action killing cards on the river, and you should be cool against the villain's range, and you can't fold so push.