$22: Another mid pp problem

[Taraz]

I think preflop is pretty standard, but what do you do on the flop and the turn. I'm almost certainly behind but:

- I have an OESD (probably with at least 1 ace dead)
- I close the action
- It's 125 to me with 660 in the pot
- Someone is going all in if I hit
- If I miss I still have ~600 chips

So do you like my play?


***** Hand History for Game 2936033760 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:16903151 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Wednesday, October 26, 21:39:52 EDT 2005
Table Table 67295 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: hugeasspimp1 ( $800 )
Seat 2: HERO ( $785 )
Seat 3: limitsonly2 ( $755 )
Seat 4: li1aa ( $800 )
Seat 5: gmoney1974 ( $875 )
Seat 6: BMH03 ( $800 )
Seat 7: donnyb2 ( $785 )
Seat 8: NTeen70Eight ( $800 )
Seat 9: skibum4ever ( $800 )
Seat 10: odieboy ( $800 )
Trny:16903151 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Th Td ]
gmoney1974 calls [15].
BMH03 folds.
donnyb2 folds.
NTeen70Eight folds.
skibum4ever raises [45].
odieboy folds.
hugeasspimp1 folds.
HERO calls [45].
limitsonly2 folds.
li1aa raises [75].
gmoney1974 calls [75].
skibum4ever calls [45].
HERO calls [45].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, Qs, Jc ]
li1aa bets [125].
gmoney1974 folds.
skibum4ever calls [125].
>You have options at Table 68184 Table!.
HERO calls [125].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
li1aa checks.
skibum4ever bets [225].
HERO folds.

[Taraz]

.

That's the line I would take....but I have a -roi at the $22s.

[splashpot]

Fold to the first bet on the flop.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the first bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to hit about 1/6 times and that's not counting the times a set or two pair redraw on you on the river if you hit.

You're barely getting the odds. I fold to the flop bet as well.

[Scuba Chuck]

I have two rules for situations like this.

First, do you have correct odds to call for 1 card? Flop pot was ~ t300, a t125 bet, and call, makes the odds ~ 4.4:1 to call. This is just about right. Remember, hitting a T on the turn makes this hand even more challenging. Food for thought.

Next, is the bet amount to call, not an amount that will cripple my stack? Calling the flop bet is about 18% of your stack. Leaving you with t585 if you fold to a turn bet.

I think the second part of the test makes this a difficult hand to call with. Furthermore, the fact that only half of your outs give you the the nuts, makes me lean towards being a puss here.

I'm not the definite source on this. I'd be interested in knowing if there's a better solution. But in this short stacked game, there's little wiggle room. This flop is explosive.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
in this short stacked game, there's little wiggle room.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah. i'd fold the flop, reluctantly. i don't think im quite getting odds.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the first bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in this short stacked game, there's little wiggle room.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah. i'd fold the flop, reluctantly. i don't think im quite getting odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the pot odds right here, now. U don't even need implied odds.

The real issue is not only odds, but also the potential redraws. This is the kind of flop where 2 pair right now is a real possibility. As I said, this is an explosive flop.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in this short stacked game, there's little wiggle room.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah. i'd fold the flop, reluctantly. i don't think im quite getting odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the pot odds right here, now. U don't even need implied odds.

The real issue is not only odds, but also the potential redraws. This is the kind of flop where 2 pair right now is a real possibility. As I said, this is an explosive flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

i missed the call. i think you can pretty much rule out implied odds here because of the amount of times we either a) get redrawn out on; or b) split the pot.

meh. i dunno. its late.

[tigerite]

I would fold the flop here. Odds are there and all that but SNG's are rarely only about pot odds, especially in situations like this.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the flop here. Odds are there and all that but SNG's are rarely only about pot odds, especially in situations like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only a half truth IMO.

[tigerite]

Ok I shall put it another way. In a cash game you would probably call here, but in an SNG once your chips are gone, they are gone, and so they are worth more to keep in your stack when a decision is marginal, whereas in a cash game you can always reach into your pocket for more.

That's what I meant..

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I shall put it another way. In a cash game you would probably call here, but in an SNG once your chips are gone, they are gone, and so they are worth more to keep in your stack when a decision is marginal, whereas in a cash game you can always reach into your pocket for more.

That's what I meant..

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you meant, but in general, we are never better than the odds. If you have very good pot equity, and the odds are very good, it's a mistake to fold. Not trying to argue. Well, maybe I am, but I still think it's a mistake to say SNGs are really not about pot odds. It's still poker.

This hand is still a fold, IMO.