I hit my draw...now what?

[Harv72b]

Posting in the BB on my first hand at this table. No reads on UTG or CO.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (9.70 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (12.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero....?

I can think of 3 different lines that have some merit, but I'm not sure which one is best.

[Borodog]

C/r seems safe. Bettor almost assuredly has trip aces and will bet the river.

PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

Edit: Whoops. Missed the middle man. Bet call is probably better.

[bungyrocks]

bet/call

[shant]

I like bet/call, trap homeboy in the middle.

[hobbsmann]

donk with the intention of 3-betting. I think CO has an ace here a lot and will raise enough of the time with it to make the donk profitbale. Plus you might be able to trap UTG for some bets before he calls it quits.

[meep_42]

I like bet-call because the board pair is an A, you'll probably get 1 bet twice from UTG's big pair or weak-played A, and you may get a raise out of a non-FH from CO, counteracting the times he was dicking around and checks behind.

-d

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
donk with the intention of 3-betting. I think CO has an ace here a lot and will raise enough of the time with it to make the donk profitbale. Plus you might be able to trap UTG for some bets before he calls it quits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[toss]

I'd go for a bet/3bet.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
donk with the intention of 3-betting. I think CO has an ace here a lot and will raise enough of the time with it to make the donk profitbale. Plus you might be able to trap UTG for some bets before he calls it quits.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

We probably don't want to call a cap, and the 3 bet faces the middle man with 2 cold.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even a donk may lay down KK-JJ to a 2nd and 3rd bet and we're going to get capped against MPs FH. So, we're basically freerolling that once we get raised on the river MP has trips and not a FH. (And I think he has a FH over half the time.)

-d

[W. Deranged]

Definitely bet.

My question is whether to three-bet a raise or call and hope for a double overcall from the dude in the middle.

If we raised and get capped, we may likely be screwed, and that's lame.

If we simply call, we may well get the same bet from the middle dude with lower risk. I don't see middle dude calling two cold on the river that often here, unless he has the case A. Who knows. He may not call the raise anyway, so we might be missing value. Who knows.

Damn this is tough. Flip a coin. Without reads I just end up having little opinion here.

With a gun to my head I guess I'll say three-bet, though.

[pokernicus]

I also prefer a bet/3-bet rather than a bet/call.

There are two things you are trying to evaluate (assuming you have the best hand...):

- The likelihood that the middle guy will call one bet.
- The likelihood that the CO will call two bets.

If the first event is more likely, then you want to go for the bet/call. If the second event is more likely, you want to go for the bet/3-bet.

To me it seems that anyone holding an Ace will likely call two bets here. On the other hand, someone with KK (or some such hand) which might what the middle guy has, could easily fold. And, even if he were willing to call one bet, he might also be willing to call two bets.

Also, if you 3-bet, it's even possible that
1) The middle guy will cold-call
2) the CO will four-bet

In either case you'll earn extra. There's a small possibility you're behind to a boat, but I think it's a small enough possibility that you need to take the risk and bet/raise for value.

[Harv72b]

Wow...I'm a little suprised by all the bet/3-bet proponents; this wasn't even one of the lines that I was thinking of. I think I regurgitate many lunches in preturbance if I get capped by CO (unless he does it with AK or something).

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the night. $7.50. Woohoo. I think I'll supersize lunch tomorrow. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[PTjvs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like this too. Could somebody going with bet/call explain why it is better than bet/3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even a donk may lay down KK-JJ to a 2nd and 3rd bet and we're going to get capped against MPs FH. So, we're basically freerolling that once we get raised on the river MP has trips and not a FH. (And I think he has a FH over half the time.)

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he has a FH way less than half the time. If he has a FH, he has an underfull on a flopped set &amp; may not even cap it. Ask yourself though, do guys who cold call 33 fastplay their flopped sets? In my experience, they do not, and he has a FH here almost never.

jvs

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a FH way less than half the time. If he has a FH, he has an underfull on a flopped set &amp; may not even cap it. Ask yourself though, do guys who cold call 33 fastplay their flopped sets? In my experience, they do not, and he has a FH here almost never.

jvs

[/ QUOTE ]

I gotta disagree. CO is holding A3/A4 a huge % of the time. His line definitely matches with top two turned into a boat, although it could just as easily be AT/A9 type hands for mere trips. In any case, the guy has got to be pretty aggressive for me to want to bet/3bet. Middle guy is clearly going to call if you bet/call...

[meep_42]

I meant that he has a FH over half the time he raises our river donkbet.

-d

[somapopper]

He cold called a utg raise. If he did it with a3 or a4, that's terrible, and you shouldn't assume he's lousy until he proves he is. Doing it with 33 or 44 is also bad, but players seem to do this all the time. However, few players play their sets this fast. He should have aq-at or a timid ak.

[Harv72b]

I think some people are missing the fact that there were already two coldcallers when CO coldcalled preflop. With 3 players already in and good position relative the PFR, that's a pretty standard call with any pocket pair.

[JacksonTens]

Does anyone else like a 3bet on the flop. Or am I just obsessed with jamming draws into large fields.

I donk/3bet. Mainly to get the guy stuck in the middle.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else like a 3bet on the flop. Or am I just obsessed with jamming draws into large fields.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop action had gone bet/mass call, I'd intended to check/raise. But when CO raised and it was already down to 3-handed, I didn't want to 3-bet OOP and risk losing another opponent.

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PS. Still getting my Brazillian wax you saw me taking earlier at $5-$10. Come back and join the fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided to quit while I was ahead for the night. $7.50. Woohoo. I think I'll supersize lunch tomorrow. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I took the hint after dropping $400. Was playing pretty frustrated when I called down with those aces. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[callmedonnie]

You can bet/3bet, bet and call the raise and go for overcalls, or go for the check raise (which I think is worst because 1)i know the is rare but getting checked thru would suck and 2) i think you will get 3 bet here enough that checkraising makes the least money.

i'm hoping those are the 3 lines.

[PokerBob]

i like bet/call. IMO bet/3-bet is a bit much, but my river play is weak.

[flopmonster]

Bet/call...i have no idea what utg has but it would seem like kk qq ...if this is the case and u donk the river , he calls, then the CO 3 bets you could either:
a.)reraise or b.) call ....clearly
If you reraise :
you will knock out the UTG who you have beaten almost always
you will give the CO the chance to raise you when he has you beat(I'm thinking about one in 3 here he has you beat)


SOOOO I'd just call

I'm just throwing this out there:

...but I initially would have replied c/r on the river, until I started reading everyone's replies. I figured betting would give everyone odds to call (almost 13 to 1) where it seems very likely that CO will bet, you can raise, and at least make UTG face two bets cold for about 7.35 to 1.

Now since most everyone is saying to at least bet, I don't know. Can someone explain why my reasoning is incorrect?

I think bet/call is optimal here. I believe the transparency of your holding is being a little overlooked here. Based on your play throughout and your sudden spring to life on the river I think most 5/10 opponents will confidently assign you a straight or greater. Thus, I think you're rarely raised by less than a full house.

Anyway, all the main benefits of this line haven been explained well by others, so I thought I'd add this to the list.

Disclaimer - I only jumped on 5/10 last week and only have around 2500 5/10 hands under my belt, and thus may be overrating our opponents a little.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just throwing this out there:

...but I initially would have replied c/r on the river, until I started reading everyone's replies. I figured betting would give everyone odds to call (almost 13 to 1) where it seems very likely that CO will bet, you can raise, and at least make UTG face two bets cold for about 7.35 to 1.

Now since most everyone is saying to at least bet, I don't know. Can someone explain why my reasoning is incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with check-raising is it will likely scare off UTG, as it's unlikely he'll call two cold without an A. This means, we gain no BBs from check-raising and open ourselves up to the possibility of a 3-bet. We want to trap UTG here, rather than force him into making a correct fold.

Hope that helps clarify the decision not to check-raise.

[Bill Lumberg]

How often is UTG calling our donkbet on the river? It looks as if he has KK-JJ and wants to call down to see the A that cutoff has. Now, the guy in front of him bets out. He's got to be thinking of letting this go a large percentage of the time, no? Not only does the guy behind him probably have an ace, but now the guy in front of him donkbets the river and if he calls, he'll probably get raised. Sure, he could be a really bad player and call anyway, but how does that affect the line?

I'm thinking maybe now we should C/R if we assume UTG is going to fold anyway and then call a 3-bet.

[Bill Lumberg]

[/ QUOTE ]I gotta disagree. CO is holding A3/A4 a huge % of the time. His line definitely matches with top two turned into a boat, although it could just as easily be AT/A9 type hands for mere trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like a contradiction. How could he have A3,A4 a HUGE percentage of the time and easily have AT,A9 or anything AK - A2 (since we're giving credit for A3,A4)? Aren't we wrongly assuming the worst?

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
How often is UTG calling our donkbet on the river? It looks as if he has KK-JJ and wants to call down to see the A that cutoff has. Now, the guy in front of him bets out. He's got to be thinking of letting this go a large percentage of the time, no? Not only does the guy behind him probably have an ace, but now the guy in front of him donkbets the river and if he calls, he'll probably get raised. Sure, he could be a really bad player and call anyway, but how does that affect the line?

I'm thinking maybe now we should C/R if we assume UTG is going to fold anyway and then call a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

or C/C going for the overcall from UTG and avoiding getting 3-bet.

[B Dids]

Bet/3-bet seems sound vs. unknowns. UTG doesn't want to get go of his hand, and you've got the only real draw on board unless he's got like BD spades, so he's likely calling your bet. CO looks like a naked ace.

If the CO just calls your river bet, you're netting 2 BB.

If you c/r, they might both fold, and you're netting 1BB, and it's hard to imagine them both call, so you're risking losing 1BB to win as much as you can expect to win if you c/r anyway.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG doesn't want to get go of his hand, and you've got the only real draw on board unless he's got like BD spades, so he's likely calling your bet.

If the CO just calls your river bet, you're netting 2 BB. If you c/r, they might both fold

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm UTG, I'm folding every time to Hero's river donkbet. Why would he want to keep it?

CO would fold for one more if we C/R? Wouldn't he have to put us on precisely 56? If anything, he's calling for peace of mind.

[B Dids]

You're not UTG though, and luckily in the universe of party poker, your avg UTG probably calls the donkbet here with an ace.

But basically he's tons more likely to call one river donk and an extra scary river check raise.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not UTG though, and luckily in the universe of party poker, your avg UTG probably calls the donkbet here with an ace.

But basically he's tons more likely to call one river donk and an extra scary river check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'm assuming he doesn't have an ace too much because of his line. How often do you think he has an ace?

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go for a bet/3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[B Dids]

He has an ace less often than he has something like KK-JJ, but if he's calling the turn with those hands, I would think he's likely calling the river.

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/call, trap homeboy in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BigBrother]

I'm in the bet/call camp, going for 2 from UTG. If UTG folds to my donk then I still think I call. What reasonable player in the CO raises this river to my donk out of nowhere with less than a boat?

I can't fold, and he won't either, so he only needs a boat 1/3 of the time for my 3-bet to be EV neutral (assuming he's no idiot who will cap with trip A).

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Disclaimer - I only jumped on 5/10 last week and only have around 2500 5/10 hands under my belt, and thus may be overrating our opponents a little.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are overrating them by a LOT, IMO. The idiots at 5/10 are like Walter from The Big Lebowski -- their stupidity manifests itself in unexplainable brinksmanship and aggression. Mark it zero dude. You are entering a world of pain. Etc, etc. Coming from 2/4, it was an interesting transition to say the least... but the play is just as bad, though in different ways.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
What reasonable player in the CO raises this river to my donk out of nowhere with less than a boat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, fine. But so many of these guys aren't reasonable. I don't recall from OP as to whether we have reads here, but if we do not, and hero donkbets the river, middle guy folds, LP raises, I want to 3-bet. As previously stated, I want to bet/call if the guy in the middle calls my initial donkbet -- for reasons already explained I think we win the most and lose the least with this play (in part because if we bet/3bet and get capped with a caller in the middle, we're still not folding but are beat an insane % of the time).

[MrDannimal]

My first thought was bet/3-bet (before reading responses). CO cold-calls PF, then is never played back at. UTG is raised on the flop and calls the raise and the turn bet. He doesn't re-raise the turn A, so he doesn't have one (or he has teeny-tiny balls).

It's 3 times more likely that CO has a naked ace than a boat, if you're assuming he has an ace (If you're willing to give him A3 or A4, then any A is possible and there are 3 kickers that boat and 9 that don't). Yes, he can have 33 or 44 (or AA, god forbid), but an ace is more likely IMO.

If you bet and UTG folds, then he wasn't going to call CO's bet and your call/raise. If UTG calls and folds to your 3-bet, then you get 4 bets if it's not capped. Same as if UTG calls 2 bets if you just call CO's raise. If UTG calls one bet but not a raise, you only get 3 bets (and this is one case where you won't know until too late. If you 3-bet, you're going to almost certainly get 1+3 bets, and maybe 3+3).

I REALLY think that CO has a boat here infrequently. I also think that most people aren't going to instantly see 56 as a holding if you donk out the river. When you 3-bet, maybe. I just think that in the long run you gain more bets 3-betting than you would lose calling a cap.

[ErrantNight]

while it's true CO is more likely a naked A than a boat... it's not like his play is inconsistent with a boat.

since getting capped sucks so hard, and 3-betting probably loses us the middleman (assuming he calls our donkbet), calling seems like a winning proposition here.

[Harv72b]

Okay, for starters, the three lines I was thinking of were:

-Bet/call; many people described the benefits of this line vs. the potential drawbacks of bet/3-bet, and I now think this is probably the best line here.

-Check/raise &amp; call a 3-bet; I don't like this line because, as others said, it makes it very likely that UTG will fold whatever he's calling down with, and if we get 3-bet after a river check/raise I think we're up against a full house a very large percentage of the time.

-Check/call; I don't think anyone got behind this option, but it does have its merits--this makes it much more likely that UTG will overcall with his mystery holding, and we don't risk being 3-bet or capped by a full house. The problem is that we also don't get value for our straight when it is good.

As for what I was thinking during the hand...

Play on the first three streets was pretty standard; as I said in an earlier reply, when I checked the flop I was planning to c/r if UTG bet (as expected) and there were 2 or more callers. When everyone folded to CO, who then raised, I didn't see any value whatsoever in a c/r, as that makes it more likely that UTG will fold if he doesn't have the ace, and I don't have an equity advantage in a HU pot. The only time it could possibly work to my advantage is if neither UTG nor CO have an ace or set, which I think is practically never. So I just coldcalled instead, which could have been interpreted as a draw, a weak/medium ace, or just a donk move (it was my first hand at the table remember, and if I didn't have any hands on the villains it was fairly unlikely that they had any on me). Incidentally, I could actually have called two here with a hand like 45 as well; even with it two bets to me, I'm getting nearly 8:1 to call.

However, this hand just gave me a sinking feeling in my stomach from the get go. I just felt that CO had flopped a set, to the point where after I called the turn bet I actually chastised myself for it; I felt I should have folded right there. It made perfect sense to me--the flop was pretty drawless for hands that any sane player would have coldcalled with, and everyone always assumes the PFR has an Ace; if CO held something like AK, I would have expected him to 3-bet preflop with position on the field. If he held AQ or weaker, I'd expect him to take a WA/WB line vs. an UTG raiser. Only a flopped set made sense, although that was of course assuming CO was a good player (and I had no read on him).

When I hit my 7 on the river, I opted for the worst possible line. I checked, intending to raise; my thinking was that if I was up against a FH with CO's 33 or 44, he might hesitate before 3-betting when I check/raise the river, as the way the hand played out it was very possible that I could hold A7s. As for UTG, I actually thought he did have an ace, but not AK, and that he'd come to the same analysis about CO's flop play as I had and was himself taking a WA/WB line. So I checked, CO bet as expected, I raised, UTG called 2, CO 3-bet, I vomited a little and called the 3-bet (again, I felt immediately after that I should have folded, as I seriously doubt anything other than a FH is 3-betting my c/r), and UTG overcalled. Results in white below:

<font color="white">
UTG has AcJs
CO has 4h4c
MHING</font>

I should also have included a bit more in my reads on this hand; as I said, this was my first hand at the table, but when I first sat down it had been 4-handed, and two of the players there were serious donks that I had good-sized samples on before (they were MP3 and Button in this hand). CO had been one of the other two players at the table then, and I'm quite sure that he'd gotten the same read on those two as I had (they're pretty hard to miss). So, in addition to the two coldcalls in front of him, CO would have been pretty confident in Button calling 2 behind him as well, and with that many players in the pot I'd have to be holding some truly worthless hole cards before I folded for 1 more SB. Given all of that, not only was it probable that he would have called two with any pocket pair, but also possible that he'd coldcall with a hand like A3/A4s.

[mtdoak]

I like a C/R and call a 3 bet. You get to squeeze two bets in from a field when your ahead. Your hope is that both aces are out there so you get paid off.

[ErrantNight]

explain why UTG calls two cold on the river again?

[meep_42]

I'd just like to add that if UTG folds to our river bet, I would consider 3-betting the CO raise.

-d