View Full Version : Knowing that you're beat (and losing your chips anyway)
This is a hand I just had a couple hours ago in a $55.
Fairly early in the tourney (25/50 blinds)---
Late position limper-- 1300 chips
SB-- 600 chips
BB (Hero)-- 1000 chips
Dealt to Hero-- 55
Flop--- 4 4 5
150 in pot
SB checks, Hero checks, LP dude bets 150
SB calls, Hero calls
Turn--- 4
I KNOW that the SB has a 4... I KNOW that I'm beat, even though there are so many other possible hands for him to have.
But I'm going to lose my chips anyway.
This is of course an extreme example--- more often it's people catching unlikely flushes, straights, etc....
But I guess my question is--- should I ever trust my instincts enough to let this hand go?
Hell no. One card in the deck that can beat you, dont give him credit so freely.
ace_in_the_hole
10-26-2005, 04:37 PM
Thus is the beauty of poker and the real reason why it is soooo hard to play perfectly. I don;t think I could ever let that hand go unless I saw my opponents cards. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
I had a similar hand...had pocket 7s. flop came 778, so i was pretty happy and when i got a caller to a 25% pot sized raise, i was ecstatic. the 8 on the turn didnt bother me until i found out after pushing he had pocket 8s
Rduke55
10-26-2005, 04:43 PM
There is no way you know you're beat here. Never let this go.
Other situations, I can see your point.
durron597
10-26-2005, 04:47 PM
When do you know the SB has a 4? On the flop? Or after the 3rd 4 hits? /images/graemlins/confused.gif
If you know the SB has a 4 on the flop, push the flop! He will call.
This is kind of a response to a couple of the similar responses--
On the flop--- when the SB calls, I put him on a 4. Now-- after the turn comes, do I change my mind? Should I backpeddle and rationalize some other hand?
It's taken a long time for me to develop and trust my intuition--- I used to change my estimation of my opponent's hand on every street-- and I've had much more success since...
Of course I can't know absolutely. And that's the way I rationalize changing my opinion on the turn... And mathematically-- I have to be right an overwhelming percentage of the time in order for it to be correct to let this hand go...
But still-- It seems that changing my first assessment is not good.
durron597
10-26-2005, 04:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop--- when the SB calls, I put him on a 4. Now-- after the turn comes, do I change my mind? Should I backpeddle and rationalize some other hand?
[/ QUOTE ]
Please read my post /images/graemlins/smile.gif if this is your read, PUSH FLOP, you get a betting action again when it gets back to you.
SonnyJay
10-26-2005, 04:57 PM
No matter how sure you think you are you can not let this go. You aren't getting enough of a "tell" playing an online SNG after about 20 hands (while possibly multitabling) to come close to folding it. I just don't see any possible way.
-SonnyJay
Rduke55
10-26-2005, 04:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of a response to a couple of the similar responses--
On the flop--- when the SB calls, I put him on a 4. Now-- after the turn comes, do I change my mind? Should I backpeddle and rationalize some other hand?
It's taken a long time for me to develop and trust my intuition--- I used to change my estimation of my opponent's hand on every street-- and I've had much more success since...
Of course I can't know absolutely. And that's the way I rationalize changing my opinion on the turn... And mathematically-- I have to be right an overwhelming percentage of the time in order for it to be correct to let this hand go...
But still-- It seems that changing my first assessment is not good.
[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure this is relevant but wouldn't the next four hitting make it less likely that he has a 4? So you can reevaluate.
Kind of like a lesser example of "I think he's on the nut flush draw" and then the As hits.
Again, I see your point but at these extremes it doesn't apply I think.
"But I guess my question is--- should I ever trust my instincts enough to let this hand go?"
I go instinct pretty strongly (some of my moves will seem 'strange'), but there's no way I could lay this down.
I knew the SB had a 4 on the flop... I figure I'm likely to get a call from him on any future street... the detail that I left out was that the flop was two-tone... What I'd really like is for the bigger stack to double me up, which is why I just called...
There's the risk though that I lose both players with a 3-card flush on the board.
Yes, I think that after thousands and thousands of SNGs, ignoring your instinct is very -EV.
Of course, I didn't let this hand go either.
"ignoring your instinct is very -EV."
If you have good instincts /images/graemlins/wink.gif
stupidsucker
10-26-2005, 06:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I KNOW that the SB has a 4... I KNOW that I'm beat, even though there are so many other possible hands for him to have.
[/ QUOTE ]
This is absolutly ridiculous.
How could you "know" without seeing his cards. You can't know, and you cant let this hand go. I feel my intuition is good, but even if I thought he had the 4 in my gut. I would get my chips in there and say [censored] when he shows me the 4.
Nick M
10-26-2005, 06:20 PM
i don't think you can blame yourself for going broke with a boat, when villian turns a one outer. That's just the way it goes sometimes
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