My doooces

[tiltaholic]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[milesdyson]

nope.

4 handed I think you can call one raise here but not two. Looks like you will get paid off when you hit a set, but I think it's too many bets to make up, esp if it gets capped.

[WalkAmongUs]

FOLD. Calling 2 cold is marginal in this situation. Calling for 3 bets (even though you have .5 bet discount) is throwing money away.

[Redd]

You're putting in 2.5SB if it gets called and 3.5SB if it gets capped. Say it gets capped 1/3 of the time, so you're putting in on average 2.8SB.

Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB (and IMO we can't be here), I'd dump it. I like a fold.

edit: This is also neglecting the reverse implied odds of hitting your set and paying to show a second best hand, which makes the required final pot size even bigger.

[Shillx]

Your getting 5:1 if the BB calls.... /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

That is pretty tempting, and I would call when I'm drunk. Since I'm sober now I'd just throw it away. If you knew that the BB would call and UTG would call then I'd call.

And I'm working on fixing that leak. At least the part about me being sober. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[lautzutao]

Can't call this unless you're 100% sure BB is coming along.

[lautzutao]

How many bets we call is irrelevant. How many players we have calling is.

[ QUOTE ]
How many bets we call is irrelevant. How many players we have calling is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, no.

[lautzutao]

since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[crownjules]

Easy fold. UTG may be raising a little light, but I'm not to eager to play deuces against a cold caller and then a solid player's 3-bet. You're getting, at best (if the BB and UTG call), 5:1 odds and you're 7:1 to hit your set. I doubt you have any chance of winning against that many people if you don't hit your set.

EDIT: I guess implied odds make this a closer decision, since if you do hit your set, you'll likely make a TON of bets.

[Reqtech]

I don't like playing small pairs from the SB for more than a single raise. 22 is a set or fold hand, especially OOP. You're OOP at the very least won't even have a chance to try and go for a free card.

I fold and cry when a 2 comes out on the flop.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[/ QUOTE ]
since whoever invented hold'em decided not to multiply the postflop bet size by the number of small bets someone put in preflop.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since our implied odds are divided by (almost) four in the latter.

[K-mac]

Grunching Via Wookies Challenge.

I do not think you can call three bets here profitably. We have a raise and a reraise in front of us and all we have is a pair of dooces.
Maybe my math is way off here, but there are 8.5 SB's in this pot and it is 3 SB to us. (.5SB+1SB+2SB+2SB+3SB= 8.5 SB or maybe i am off) Almost 3 to 1 on the call but we are about 7.5 to 1 to flop a set or better. Im not sure implied odds warrant a call here.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[/ QUOTE ]
since whoever invented hold'em decided not to multiple the postflop bet size by the number of small bets someone put in preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, now I don't have to think of a coherent response, and yours is much much wittier than what I had started writing. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

EDIT: But I will try a more helpful analysis anyways. If we are 4 handed I would put 1SB preflop in with 22 as even though I am 7.5:1 to hit a set I can easily make up that 3.5BB if I do hit a set. But if I'm putting in 4SB, I have to make up 4 times that (15SB postflop) which usually ain't happening.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB calls, UTG caps and everyone calls we are getting 16.5:3.5 = 4.7:1

If UTG doesn't cap and BB calls then we are getting 12.5:2.5 = 5:1

We also need more implied odds to breakeven when it gets capped. At a certain point, the implied odds just aren't there. I have no idea when that point is though.

Brad

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold, I think a good aggressive player is 3betting PF here with a big overpair way too often to think about putting in any more money here.

[Redd]

I fold my bottom pair in a multiway semi-coordinated board.

[crownjules]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold. At this point, the pot is so bloated that you probably can not force UTG and MP2 out by raising. Calling is the worst possible move.

grunching

You're in the SB. Throw it away. Calling this is worse than calling 3 cold from the button.

[ QUOTE ]
since when are 5:1 and 20:4 different?

[/ QUOTE ]

Add implied odds to the first figure. Adding the same implied odds to the second figure makes it not as big.

[bozlax]

Since everybody else is answering the question you asked, I'm going to answer the un-asked question...what DID you do? I think you raised, checked through the turn and rivered a 2.

[Aaron W.]

Nobody has asked the right question. Are LAG and bad player going to spew postflop? Is LAG the type to raise/3-bet with KK when there's an ace on the board? Is bad player going to call down any pair? These are the questions you need to answer when considering the implied odds of this hand.

With no information on these things, a call here is a little bad, but I don't think it's terrible.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
You're putting in 2.5SB if it gets called and 3.5SB if it gets capped. Say it gets capped 1/3 of the time, so you're putting in on average 2.8SB.

Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB (and IMO we can't be here), I'd dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]
This post needs to be quoted every 5 posts or so just to remind everyone what a correct answer looks like. The only number that matters in this whole silly exercise is 14. If the pot will end up larger than 14BBs, it's a call. If it will end up smaller than 14BBs, it's a fold.

[Reqtech]

if that's the case, with a raiser and a reraiser with 4 to the flop capped, we're going to have 8 big bets on the flop. I don't think that it's a big stretch to for the pot to be 14 big bets by the river with 2 players that really like their hand and one other who is calling along.

[droolie]

Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2/images/graemlins/club.gif I love it!

[gopnik]

it's close but I lean towards folding because MP3 is on your right and you cannot trap if you flop your set.
Plust UTG might cap.

[K-mac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're putting in 2.5SB if it gets called and 3.5SB if it gets capped. Say it gets capped 1/3 of the time, so you're putting in on average 2.8SB.

Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB (and IMO we can't be here), I'd dump it.

[/ QUOTE ]
This post needs to be quoted every 5 posts or so just to remind everyone what a correct answer looks like. The only number that matters in this whole silly exercise is 14. If the pot will end up larger than 14BBs, it's a call. If it will end up smaller than 14BBs, it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have an idea as to how Redd did that math, but why is 14 BB the important number in this problem?
Is 14 BB by showdown the size the pot needs to be for us to break even?

[WalkAmongUs]

The required pot size of 14BB does not include bets we put into the pot. Thats quite a bit of ground to be gained.

Also, are you going to continue after the flop misses you and there are nothing but overcards to your pair on the board?

If not, you're paying 3SB just to take a look at a flop. Too expensive IMO. Maybe if it was like a 7 way pot where you got some really good implied odds...

[lautzutao]

This is what I never understand when these questions come up with pairs and preflop capping...

If a villian's hand is good enough to 3-bet with, and another villian's hand is good enough to cap with, why wouldn't you expect to get the SB back that you would need to make this call profitable(it's about 20SB correct to break even here?)

These types of hands that are betting like this preflop are going to give us the type of action we need to make up this deficit aren't they? It's not like they're capping and calling preflop then folding to a postflop raise...there's going to be 3-betting and possibly capping on multiple streets if we hit our set on the flop.

And yeah, I said 20:4 and I'm an idiot for not precisely sitting and typing that we're only putting in 3.5 or 2.5 SB...I'm a gorilla math type of guy /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

* grunch *

A high variance play, no doubt, but with MP3's (presumably) dead money (and with hopefully more to come) and with the implied odds why not?? Without the cold-call it's a fold though, right?

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you raise you're offering everyone 7 to 1 which are decent enough odds to chase most draws. Apart from hitting a 2 though, you couldn't really have asked for a better flop for your little pocket pair. If the players left to act aren't too tricky and if MP3 will continue to bet the turn with overcards if a blank drops, then I call the flop planning to check-raise a blank on the turn.
But I'm running good at the moment so maybe that's a biased decision.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold, I think a good aggressive player is 3betting PF here with a big overpair way too often to think about putting in any more money here.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting that you say that, since i was thinking a good aggressive player is much more likely to not have a premium overpair in this situation given the over aggressiveness of UTG and the badness of MP2. and he basically needs to auto-bet the flop no matter what...

(though i agree his actions are also consistent with a big pair)

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
grunching

You're in the SB. Throw it away. Calling this is worse than calling 3 cold from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually i think i'd much rather be in my current position than calling 3 cold from the button, since i could flop a set with great relative position to the pf 3-bettor. so i think your bland statement of the seemingly obvious is wrong.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I called. UTG called (thankfully didn't checkraise). MP2 called.

Turn. 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I lead. fold call call.

River Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I lead. call call.

mhig (not that i played it right...)

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody has asked the right question. Are LAG and bad player going to spew postflop? Is LAG the type to raise/3-bet with KK when there's an ace on the board? Is bad player going to call down any pair? These are the questions you need to answer when considering the implied odds of this hand.

With no information on these things, a call here is a little bad, but I don't think it's terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question Aaron & I'm realizing this is one of the reasons I posted this hand.

On the one hand I think UTG is raising very light and might spew a lot of bets. And MP3 could have far from a premium hand and is definitely aggressive and confident enough to 3-bet to isolate 2 players as well as bet a missed flop with overcards. So, in some ways, their aggression helps my implied odds and also helps the fact that my hand could actually still be the best on the flop.

On the other hand, their aggressive tendancies work against me preflop since UTG could cap behind me if I call and against me on the flop, since UTG could be planning to checkraise with many hands if I call (or raise).

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold. At this point, the pot is so bloated that you probably can not force UTG and MP2 out by raising. Calling is the worst possible move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is calling the worst possible move? (i ask since I called, figuring it was the best possible move)

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2/images/graemlins/club.gif I love it!

[/ QUOTE ]

So, I agree that I can't fold people if I raise.
I called thinking 14:1 was "close enough" if they're going to spew on the big streets (hoping UTG didn't check raise) and getting 16:1 when UTG and MP2 call.

bad?

[lautzutao]

May I ask why you think it's the best possible move? How are you not putting someone on a big Pocket pair here? This call seems...curious.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold, I think a good aggressive player is 3betting PF here with a big overpair way too often to think about putting in any more money here.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting that you say that, since i was thinking a good aggressive player is much more likely to not have a premium overpair in this situation given the over aggressiveness of UTG and the badness of MP2. and he basically needs to auto-bet the flop no matter what...

(though i agree his actions are also consistent with a big pair)

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I didn't really see the reads on the other players. I still fold here, you are unlikely to have the best hands and unlikely to get this heads up.

I don't mind taking one off on the flop here, I think that a 2 on the turn gives us the best hand pretty much 100% of the time and we can likely make up quite a few bets on the big bet streets.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB, I'd dump it.

edit: This is also neglecting the reverse implied odds of hitting your set and paying to show a second best hand, which makes the required final pot size even bigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't the reverse implied odds already included when you say "sets hold up about 75% of the time"? If our set held up 100% of the time, the pot would only need to be big enough to account for us hitting a set by the river (somewhat less than 7.5:1). Since you threw out 75% => ~10:1, we don't need to account for making the best hand and losing *again*, right?

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
May I ask why you think it's the best possible move? How are you not putting someone on a big Pocket pair here? This call seems...curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't really know.

it was part "my hand could be best" (they could have missed the flop)

and part, i'm getting ok odds to draw to a turn 2 if noone raises the flop and calls.

and part spewage. i'm not very good at the poker.

[DMBFan23]

also,

[ QUOTE ]
Since sets hold up about 75% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

what is the distribution here? is it linear? I suspect not. how often does 222 hold up versus, say, 888?

[droolie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2/images/graemlins/club.gif I love it!

[/ QUOTE ]

So, I agree that I can't fold people if I raise.
I called thinking 14:1 was "close enough" if they're going to spew on the big streets (hoping UTG didn't check raise) and getting 16:1 when UTG and MP2 call.

bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of you doooces is tainted and you're not closing the action....bad? Methinks yes.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2/images/graemlins/club.gif I love it!

[/ QUOTE ]

So, I agree that I can't fold people if I raise.
I called thinking 14:1 was "close enough" if they're going to spew on the big streets (hoping UTG didn't check raise) and getting 16:1 when UTG and MP2 call.

bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of you doooces is tainted and you're not closing the action....bad? Methinks yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

The board is paired so both of the 2's are clean. Moves it from bad to marginal IMO.