PDA

View Full Version : Not Being dealt AA for 1500 hands

freehat
10-26-2005, 04:20 PM
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands?
PaultheS
10-26-2005, 04:24 PM
Probability of being dealt AA: C(4,2) / C(52,2) = 0.004525

Probability of not being dealt AA: 1 - 0.004525 = 0.995475

Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%.
freehat
10-26-2005, 04:32 PM
Thank you!
dtbog
10-26-2005, 05:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often.
Falker11
10-26-2005, 05:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something about springy claws of variance....
10-30-2005, 04:46 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My buddy claims to having not been dealt AA in his last 50 hours of live play (~1500 hands). What is the probability of not being dealt AA for 1500 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

God clearly hates your friend, so I imagine this sort of thing will happen to him pretty damn often.

[/ QUOTE ]

If God truly hated his friend the time he finally got AA he would lose to a fish holding 72 offsuit.
10-30-2005, 04:34 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%.

[/ QUOTE ]

just for interest, not hitting it for 500 hands is 11%..... and i think i'm on that run right now.... not sure what the point of my comment is. but thanks for posting.
KenProspero
10-31-2005, 05:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Probability of not being dealt AA 1500 times in a row: (0.995475)^1500 = 0.001111 = 0.1111%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, unless I'm wrong, the odds against getting AA twice in a row is (1/221)^2 = .0000204 or .00204%.

The reason I'm getting at this is that stuff like this happens fairly regularly given the number of hands most of us play.

So, a streak of 1500 hands without AA isn't really that noteworthy.
HoldEmKillah
10-31-2005, 07:46 PM
It happened to me once about a month or so ago. It was about 1700 hands in a row w/o AA. I finally got it and lost my stack. Be careful what you wish for as they say.
SA125
11-01-2005, 06:57 AM
I believe the odds to get AA is every 225 or 227 hands. So you should get it 6 times in 1500 hands.

The odds to flop a set are 8.5-1, 2 in every 17 hands, 3 in 25. I got a PP 25 times playing live today and didn't hit a set and, after being extremely frustrated experiencing that, fully expect the same thing may happen tomorrow.
LetYouDown
11-01-2005, 10:44 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I believe the odds to get AA is every 225 or 227 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
The probability of getting A-A is C(4,2)/C(52,2) or 1/221.
The odds of getting A-A are 220 to 1.

[ QUOTE ]
So you should get it 6 times in 1500 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
This turns out to be correct, the max of the BINOMDIST function occurs at 6.

[ QUOTE ]
The odds to flop a set are 8.5-1, 2 in every 17 hands, 3 in 25.

[/ QUOTE ]
If by "set" you mean any flop containing at least one more of your card:

1 - C(48,3)/C(50,3) = 11.755% or ~1/8.51 or 7.5 to 1
11-02-2005, 09:48 PM
does anybody know what the probability is of getting beaten 4 times in a row with AA? its vs. QQ, AJ, TT+QJs, and TT+Q4o /images/graemlins/laugh.gif