JJ: Smart conservative or weak-loose? (3rd in a series)

[RiverMel]

This is my third post asking about JJ. I don't think I am fixating on this hand. I think it just tends to bring about situations which are representative of quite a few of the difficult decisions that players will face in tournament HE. Plus it happens to play in big pots, which matter a lot.

$55 PLHE on Stars, 21 minutes in with blinds of 15/30 and my stack is 1660 before posting the big blind. Folded to the rel. short-stacked cutoff with 610 who makes it 65 to go. Button folds, SB who covers me re-raises to 150.

I just call, as I want to see the flop. I'm confident I'm ahead of the cutoff but I'm pretty worried about the SB, and I don't want to commit all my chips pre-flop.

Can I re-raise less than all-in here, and expect to ever be able to not play the hand for all my chips? I am trying to avoid committing all my chips right now, which is why I rule out a medium-sized re-raise of the re-raise. (Bad?)

Flop T/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3/forums/images/icons/spade.gif K/forums/images/icons/club.gif

SB checks to me, I check. I am pretty sure someone here has me beat, and I don't want to test the waters by putting in a pot-sized bet. Maybe a bet the size of half the pot would have been a good way to test the waters?

turn T/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3/forums/images/icons/spade.gif K/forums/images/icons/club.gif 4/forums/images/icons/club.gif

SB bets the pot (450). At this point I think there is a good chance SB is trying to take the pot.

Does the presence of the cutoff, who has a stack the size of a pot-size bet, lower the chances that the SB is bluffing?

I call 450, cutoff folds.

River 6/forums/images/icons/club.gif

SB checks, I check.

Now, I was really scared of the SB pre-flop, scared of the flop, yet still paid a decent amount for a showdown. Do the SB's check on the flop and the cutoff's check give me any reason to change my pre-flop and flop assessment that I am beat? Should I call here? I guess it depends on what you know about the players. But assuming average players whom you knew nothing about?

As for the check on the river--did I miss a prime opportunity here with the third club coming? (especially with the suited K out, decreasing the likelihood of a non-nut flush calling)

Thanks. Results in a day or two.

[ohkanada]

Pre-flop. Hmmm, 2 small raises in 1 hand. Facing 2 typical raises I would likely muck JJ. In this situation I would call. I don't think it is best to make the 3rd raise with JJ in NL unless you know something of the players.

Flop - The pot has 450 in it. I think betting 325 or so can either win it right away or realize you are in big trouble.

Turn - Yeah a smaller stacked cutoff makes it less likely the SB is bluffing but he still may have QQ/AT/99/88. He could even have AQ/AJ but who knows. Of course he could have a monster as well. I think the key to the turn is knowing what you are going to do on the river. If you call and the river is an A/Q are you calling if he bets again? If you call and the river is not an A/Q are you calling again?

River - I would just check. If he has a King then you got away cheap, otherwise he won't be calling any bet unless he has you beat.

Ken Poklitar

[cferejohn]

If you do not want to 'test the waters' on the flop, why call the $450 on the turn? Since you didn't bet on the flop, it seems like you are worried that the SB is going for a checkraise. If that is the case, then it would seem you should be just as worried about the turn bet. Several posters here have commented that a ~2/3 pot bet accomplishes nearly everything a pot-sized bet will, so I think betting $300-350 on the flop would probably get you either the pot or the information you need. If raised, pretty easy laydown. If called, you may well have bought the button (seems likely given the subsequent fold of the CO), and you can check behind on the turn.

Seems to me that there is a decent chance that the SB is on QQ. That being the case, betting right out on the flop might have gotten rid of him.

I really don't like the SBs check on the flop. I assume he doesn't have TT or KK, since I'm pretty sure he would have bet the river (if only for a small amount to get a little more out of you, unless perhaps you often bluff the river and he has picked up on it). If he has QQ, then checking the flop is just inviting someone to steal from him. I suppose it is possible he has TT or KK and was trying to check-raise the flop and now fears a runner-runner flush (again something he could have avoided worrying about by betting the flop).

So, back to talking about your hand, I think I would either a) bet 300-350 on the flop when checked to, folding to a re-raise, and proceeding with caution if called. or
b) check-fold the turn.

With (a) being the more likely.