Boated up on a board that SCREAMS straight flush

[hemstock]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
What my plan?

[Paxosmotic]

Raise turn, cap turn, bet river, call raise. Isolate my nuts on MP3's chin as he flips over A/images/graemlins/club.gif.

[hemstock]

You obviously mean cap flop?
Raising the turn would be really stupid imo

Imo you should have 3-bet the flop. But forget that. I would go for bet/call. On any other board I wouldnt care about straight flushes but there is actually a possibility here. If that 10c was a 4c or something I would CR.

[Jaran]

c/c one. I'm really not sure what to do if CO raises. I think it's prolly a fold, though.

-Jaran

[sean c]

Three bet the flop. Check/call the turn. Bet/call the river.

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
You obviously mean cap flop?
Raising the turn would be really stupid imo

[/ QUOTE ]
Didn't even pay attention to the flop, sorry. I'd go to war on the flop as well.

I think you vastly overestimate how often he has a Q/7/images/graemlins/club.gif here. If you're not putting in a raise on the big bet streets here you're playing scared. You can't just assume he has it because the cards are out there. You're ahead a vast majority of the time, and when you're not, he's going to let you know.

[MrWookie47]

I go to war on the flop, not on the turn. If there isn't a flush, there's apt to be a straight. I don't mind one bet going in with my boat/quads draw, but I'd hate to have to put in two. I'm thinking bet/call the river.

[hemstock]

But if the board doesnt pair on the river, I 'm dead like 90% of the time with 4 to the flush on the turn. Why would I wanna raise the turn when I am still drawing?

*Grunch*

You fluked the paired board. C/r the river and bet out.
If it is a straight or flush villian is holding the paired board will be of concern. Betting would alert him to your boat.
If villian had 7c, Qc or J9 you could post it as a bad beat. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Looking again, do you have odds to call for a boat on the flop? (How do you calculate that with 2 cards to come?)

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
I go to war on the flop, not on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Likewise. And should I boat up on the river, I'm betting and possibly threebetting. Depends how retarded villain is.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
I go to war on the flop, not on the turn. If there isn't a flush, there's apt to be a straight. I don't mind one bet going in with my boat/quads draw, but I'd hate to have to put in two. I'm thinking bet/call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I might 3-bet the river depending on who I'm up against.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You obviously mean cap flop?
Raising the turn would be really stupid imo

[/ QUOTE ]
Didn't even pay attention to the flop, sorry. I'd go to war on the flop as well.

I think you vastly overestimate how often he has a Q/7/images/graemlins/club.gif here. If you're not putting in a raise on the big bet streets here you're playing scared. You can't just assume he has it because the cards are out there. You're ahead a vast majority of the time, and when you're not, he's going to let you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree you should be 3-betting this flop, but raising this turn is spewing. MP3 raised a super coordinated flop with 4 opponents and bet the 4-flush/4-straight turn. The other guy is just calling along. You really think we have the best hand on the turn even 10% of the time?

Close between c/r and betting out on the river imho. I think it's opponent dependent.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking again, do you have odds to call for a boat on the flop? (How do you calculate that with 2 cards to come?)

[/ QUOTE ]

1 - ((the chance you won't make a boat or quads on the turn) * (the chance you won't make a boat or quads on the river))

You have 7 outs on the flop, 10 on the turn.

So: 1-((40/47)*(36/46)) = 0.33395 or 33%. So, yeah, you've got the odds, assuming that your boat will win (and even if you get a scary board like this one, you have to play a boat like it'll win).

[hemstock]

[quoteLooking again, do you have odds to call for a boat on the flop? (How do you calculate that with 2 cards to come?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and I made a mistake by not raising the flop.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking again, do you have odds to call for a boat on the flop? (How do you calculate that with 2 cards to come?)

[/ QUOTE ]

We have equity to raise because there's a good chance we have the best hand on the flop.

[TomBrooks]

Checkraise. Call a three bet.

If you think there is any chance MP will check the river through, bet out and call a raise. Not sure if three betting would be a good idea, but I'm inclined to believe not.

[AdamL]

Raise your hand up into the air, say "Look I can't even win when I hit a set"

[SoftcoreRevolt]

I check raise this river. He bet the turn with four to the flush on the board, it is unlikely he will simply check here, so I don't like betting out.

The river seems like an easy check/raise opportunity. I wouldn't go crazy and cap it, if it gets 3-bet...so I'd just call. There's a few hands that could beat you, but you probably have the best hand here more often than not (generally speaking).

A worse hand like an A-high flush could 3-bet, but so would JT/J9/etc. Since there are less hands that are worse that would 3-bet, I'd imagine everyone committed to call the raise w/ either a straight or a flush. Unless God hates you, no one has the straight flush.

*grunch*
I 3bet the flop.
I checkraise the river.

After a little think.

There's really only 4 cards that he can be betting on that turn (unless he's bluffing). The A,K,Q,7/images/graemlins/club.gif or worse an overset.

This river is really read dependant. More importantly, how much of a tard both your opponents are.

If I had the A,K/images/graemlins/club.gif on this river, I'm checking, I know that only a better hand is calling/raising this river.

I think the same has to apply to our hand. We're only going to get value calls from the A,K/images/graemlins/club.gif. The rest of the hands are raising us.

CO is freaking me out. What the hell is he staying in with?
If he's not a complete tard then there's a good chance he has the goods, or he just made them with the J pairing on the river.

I'm changing my river play to check/call. Barring complete spastic reads.

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I go to war on the flop, not on the turn. If there isn't a flush, there's apt to be a straight. I don't mind one bet going in with my boat/quads draw, but I'd hate to have to put in two. I'm thinking bet/call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I might 3-bet the river depending on who I'm up against.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, wouldn't we rather c/r to limit things to 3 bets? I think 2 bets is ok here. 3 might be pushing it. 4 and we're almost certainly dead, but I have a tough time folding to a cap vs someone I felt comfortable 3-betting.

[ChuckyB]

Cap the flop.

Check/call the turn.

Bet/call the river. Of the 15 hands that made him a straight or flush on the turn, only 2 beat you. On the river (depending on your read) that he could have JTs or 99. That's why I would only want to go 2 bets on the river.

He's got the A /images/graemlins/club.gif