Typical JJ Flop

[BoxTree]

I'm fudging the details a bit because this hand happened several days ago and the details aren't that important. I play a hand very similar to this literally once per session. Somtimes it happens with queens or kings. Or tens.

Commerce 20/40, 9-handed

Hero has J/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif on the button.

Preflop: Limp, Limp, Hero raises, BB calls, limpers call.

Flop (4 players, 8 sb): A/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gif

Checks to Hero, Hero bets, BB calls, Limper folds, Limper calls.

Turn (3 players, 5.5 bb): 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checks to Hero, Hero...?

I usually bet this turn (and fold to a c/r) and check UI on the river.

I think it's obvious that this play is superior to checking the turn and calling a river bet, but I feel that both of these may be inferior to simply checking the turn and folding to any bet on the river.

Am I giving up too much by checking the turn? I don't think I'm going to show enough profit by betting again on the turn when I get two callers on an ace-high, very non-scary (but not completely non-scary) flop.

Thoughts?

[Tommy Angelo]

"I usually bet this turn (and fold to a c/r) and check UI on the river.

I think it's obvious that this play is superior to checking the turn and calling a river bet, but I feel that both of these may be inferior to simply checking the turn and folding to any bet on the river.

Am I giving up too much by checking the turn?"

------------

BoxTree,

I look at it this way. Sometimes I will have the best hand on the turn and I want to always bet the turn in that case. Sometimes I will not have the best hand on the turn and my opponents will not fold to a bet, and I want to always check the turn in that case. Sometimes I will have the best hand, but if I bet, an opponent will raise with a worse hand, and I'll fold, and I definitely want to check the turn when that is what would happen if I bet.

I want to get it right 100% of the time. But of course that is impossible. So instead, I accept this failure within the system, and then I shoot for perfection anyway.

Being checked to on the turn in headsup and threeway pots after being the preflop and flop aggressor is my life. Getting it right is why I'm there. Best advice I can give to you on this matter is, pay attention, to everything, always, especially yourself, so that when they check to you, you are free and ready, and if you decide to check behind on the turn, then yes, you really are allowed to just fold on the river. That's the freest play of them all. And there can be no doubt that many times it is the correct line, just as there can be no doubt that sometimes an opponent will have an ace or better. It is inevitably so. But you can't know in advance when it is right to check the turn and fold the river. All you can do is be ready to.

Tommy

I think tommy's post is excellent. But with no reads on your opponents, I think the default play should be to bet the turn and check the river unimproved. If someone has an Ace, and you bet the turn youve now made a mistake that has cost you approx 1BB. If however you do have the best hand and you check the turn, and the river card beats you or you allow yourself to fold the best hand on the river, you will make a mistake that will cost you the whole pot. In close situations like these, always try to make the decision that costs you the least when you are wrong. PS: WARNING: someone may respond to my post saying something like "In close situations it doesnt matter what you do since theoretically both plays have to be close in expectation" Please just ignore that user.

[Eric P]

I think tommy's post was a long version: "do your best" Which is advice that is as good as your best is. However I also think it's the only real answer, you clearly have to mix it up here, but if you do check, it's foolish to call the river EVERY time, but sometimes you will have to. And sometimes betting the turn will clearly be correct, and now my post is the same as tommy's.

[ QUOTE ]
I think tommy's post was a long version: "do your best" Which is advice that is as good as your best is. However I also think it's the only real answer, you clearly have to mix it up here, but if you do check, it's foolish to call the river EVERY time, but sometimes you will have to. And sometimes betting the turn will clearly be correct, and now my post is the same as tommy's.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with everything you and tommy wrote, but there still has to be a correct autopilot strategy for when the hero has no imformation/read on his opponents, and I believe that default strategy should be to bet the turn and check the river.

[andyfox]

One thing to consider is how high your pocket pair is. Less risky giving a free card with kings than with tens.

I haven't played the 20-40 for a while, but when I did, there were a lot of guys who would call with just about any old thing on the flop and then give up often on the turn. When you raise pre-flop, lots of those guys put you on A-K or A-Q and will surrender if you fire a second time.

There are also quite a few players who, when you check behind on the turn, will fire at the river regardless, so you give up too much, I think, when you default fold to their river bet after it has checked through on the turn.

Here's where knowing your opponents is key. Does the big blind defend with any ace? Would he ever just check-call twice with top pair? Does he chase and/or call down with second pair? Is he an inveterate check-raiser?

In the hand in question, the board is now pretty draw-rich, so that too has to be figured in as opposed to a raggedy board without any obvious draws.

[Tommy Angelo]

"but there still has to be a correct autopilot strategy for when the hero has no imformation/read on his opponents,"

I disagree. That's like saying there must exist a correct autopilot golf club to use, no matter what the distance to the hole is. There can be no golf shot without the distance component. There can be no betting decision at B&M poker without the opponent component.

The opponents are not an add-on to the considerations that go into a betting decision. They are omnipresent and exactly as much a part of every decision as you and the cards are. And the amount that each of us knows about our opponents, just by breathing the same air, even for seconds, is vast beyond the ages. Getting to know things about people just by being next to them is not a skill. It is an evolutionarily selected adaptation.

Further, I believe that the belief in the existence of correct autopilot strategies at B&M poker is bad belief selection.

[ QUOTE ]
"but there still has to be a correct autopilot strategy for when the hero has no imformation/read on his opponents,"

I disagree. That's like saying there must exist a correct autopilot golf club to use, no matter what the distance to the hole is. There can be no golf shot without the distance component. There can be no betting decision at B&M poker without the opponent component.

The opponents are not an add-on to the considerations that go into a betting decision. They are omnipresent and exactly as much a part of every decision as you and the cards are. And the amount that each of us knows about our opponents, just by breathing the same air, even for seconds, is vast beyond the ages. Getting to know things about people just by being next to them is not a skill. It is an evolutionarily selected adaptation.

Further, I believe that the belief in the existence of correct autopilot strategies at B&M poker is bad belief selection.



[/ QUOTE ]
Thats a nice heartwarming story, but every good player should have a winning autopilot strategy to fall back on when he has no reads of his opponents or the situation. Not only do I strongly believe this, Mason Malmuth himself mentioned this concept of having a strong autopilot strategy as being one of the necessary ingredients for being a winning player in one of his poker essays books(i cant remember which one) I dont think what I am stating is controversial, and I think your posts in this thread were very insightful, but in many situations your ideas will not be applicable and thats where a strong foundation in basic strategy takes over.

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
That's like saying there must exist a correct autopilot golf club to use, no matter what the distance to the hole is.

[/ QUOTE ]

7 iron.

Which club did Costner use in Tin Cup?

[BoxTree]

There are some interesting philosophical concepts here. Thanks to everyone who responded.

Against some opponents, it's clear that I should bet this all the way (or at least bet the turn), and against others, it's clear that I should check the turn and fold the river. But occasionally (but not at all an insignificant amount of the time), I simply have little to no idea where I am. I guess that's where Mason/Westley's "default" play comes in. If I just don't know what to do, I still have to make a decision based on SOMEthing. I think I'm more comfortable losing 1 BB most of the time rather than the entire pot some of the time. And by "more comfortable" I mean "probably will show a higher profit/smaller loss." So, when reads fail, I'll bet the turn.

I give up when 2 people call. If only one I fire one on the turn and check the river through. Thats my standard FWIW.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Being checked to on the turn in headsup and threeway pots after being the preflop and flop aggressor is my life. Getting it right is why I'm there. Tommy

[/ QUOTE ]

Tommy, hit the nail on the head. How many times have you checked the flop, given a free card and said "I should have bet the turn." Does it equal the amount of times you bet the turn with AA on aboard of 25J9, got c/r'd and then called down knowing you're beat?

The turn man, the turn. Giving free cards kill, but so does knowing you're on autobet and beat.

[ QUOTE ]
you can't know in advance when it is right to check the turn and fold the river. All you can do is be ready

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder a lot how much that "catastrophic fold" concept has turned a lot of very good players into calling station fish late in the hand.

[Mike Haven]

Hi, Tommy.

I haven't read many of your posts lately.

That has been my loss as I see from this thread that you know that you have reached Nirvana.

Well written, sir. I will enjoy searching now for other gems.

[vmacosta]

" I think I'm more comfortable losing 1 BB most of the time rather than the entire pot some of the time. "

I don't think this is all that applicable here. Many hands that called the flop will be calling or raising the turn. The 6 is a very meaningful card in this situation, so if it is part of your "fudged" details, you should have made it a 2. I would feel way better about JJ if the turn ahd been a 2, T, or 3...the A765 board means that JJ is either behind with few outs, ahead but up against hands with tons of outs who may semibluff c/r, or way ahead of hands with just 5 outs. This would probably lead me to bet/fold in games where opponents play passive and check otherwise...as others have said, in B&M poker, it doesn't take much of a read to decide whether a table is generally passive or not. Just having played there before recently, knowing 1 or 2 players, or having watched an orbit or so ought to do.