Fold it or call the big stack?

[VinnyTheFish]

$5 Tourn. At Stars. About 80 left, top 135 were paid. Only the final table makes any significant money, say over $120 or more. I am in 6th out of 80. The two players, to my immediate right are in the top 5. So, to keep it simple:

[note: I am at work, and I cannot find the hand history in my last 200 hands. – so I will round off a bit.]

Seat 4: 65,000
Seat 5: 59,000
Me - Seat 6: 51,000 (Big Blind)
Blinds: 3000-6000 + ante

All fold to Button, who pushes all in.
SB folds.
I have A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I was hoping that the button or the SB would try to steal. I was ready to push if one of the tried to steal. But I did not expect Button to push.

Him pushing makes me believe he has a medium hand, say AQ, AJ, or hands with slight +EV, maybe JJ-88. If he is pushing, he wants us to fold. If he has AA, KK, QQ, AK, he would have raised 3-5 times the BB.

[note: from the play the past half hour, this is what I am getting from his play.]

The way I was thinking, I make this play, in this tourn. 9 out of 10 times. I also strongly believe that I should have went in here because I was out to make the final table. The pay difference between 80th and 21st was only about $25. But, when you bust, you usually question yourself.

What’s your take here? What would you do?

Btw – he had 66, I had no help and he hit a 6 on the turn.
I wished him a good game and a very nice play.

Flame away for risking my entire stck and the tourn on a coin flip.

[Matador225]

Not a bad play at all. His push generally means a low-medium pocket pair but he could be doing it with other hands as well, which you dominate.
Bottom line is you need to keep accumulating chips and since your playing to win, its an easy push.

[Slow Play Ray]

I think I call this at this stage of the tournament. He wouldn't be pushing a hand that has you completely dominated, and that makes it very likely you in fact have him dominated, or at least a coin flip against a low pocket pair. Off the top of my head, I've gotta believe this is a +EV play against his possible range.

*Edit* Maybe I should have read your whole post - I agree with your analysis.

You have to call here. You both have M's of aprox. 5 and you are both relative big stacks in this tournament. I hate to think how little chips the rest have. This is a prime opportunity to double up off one of the few stacks that you can do this with. If I were him I would be raising all in with such a huge range that this is a great situation for you. You aren't risking it on a coin flip for two reasons:

a) Even if he showed you his pair of sixes you have to call with pot odds alone
b) More often than not he will have 2 highish cards and you will be a reasonable favourite, or he shows Ax and make you a big favourite.

Stick it in and realise that getting the big money relies on moments like this going in your favour.

[VinnyTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]
You both have M's of aprox. 5

[/ QUOTE ]

ok ... what are M"s? Please expalin.

Also, thank all. I also agree with your thoughts. I was also looking for teh counter puch - why fight the big stack? Why risk on a coinf flip?

But, like you said - Love to run into A-x or K-x (other than AA, KK) and a middle PP is not bad. The win is worth so much more than loss when comparing fodl equity and prizes.

It has to be called 9 out of 10 times. There is never an always and always a never!!

[DonHansen]

You did the right thing in my opinion. If it's folded to me on the button and I hold a premium pair I prefer to limp - especially if the blinds are aggressive - with the intention of checkraising or sometimes slowplaying if it's heads up. The buttons push here indicates a medium or low pocket pair - which it turned out to be.

You know the drill: In order to win large online tourneys your pocket pairs has to hold up in all in-situations against AK and your AK must win against pocket pairs.

Correct play, but the luck you needed was not there.


My two cents.


D.

[VinnyTheFish]

[ QUOTE ]
You know the drill: In order to win large online tourneys your pocket pairs has to hold up in all in-situations against AK and your AK must win against pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep. I hear ya!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You both have M's of aprox. 5

[/ QUOTE ]

ok ... what are M"s? Please expalin.



[/ QUOTE ]

As described in Harringtons Volume 2 book. Your M is your stack size divided by the blinds and any antes in the pot before the hand is played. eg you have 1500 chips and the blinds are 100/200, your M is 5.
The purpose of knowing your M and your opponents is that the way you play is determined by your M when you have less than 20. When you have an M of 5 or less you really only have one move avilable, All In! If you just raise when your M is that low and you are called you can't really fold on the flop because you have so much invested and you are going to leave you with so few chips that if you do double up you are back to square one. So you should move in all your chips to add to the chances of taking the blinds uncontested. If your opponent is aware of these principles than they will also be aware that they will have to play a greater range of hands as they are running out of time to find a premium hand. Thats the basics of M, but there is quite a bit more to it than that.

[ansky451]

This thread is ridiculous. This is an incredibly easy call. No respected poster would "flame" you for making this call. If you didn't call here, you would get flamed beyond belief.

[ QUOTE ]
Flame away for risking my entire stck and the tourn on a coin flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't ever say this again. This isn't the world series with deep stacks and slow blind levels, its a [censored] 5 dollar tournament. If you are passing up clear edges like this, you are playing weak-tight. Call this 100% of the time.

[Slow Play Ray]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You both have M's of aprox. 5

[/ QUOTE ]

ok ... what are M"s? Please expalin.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[VinnyTheFish]

looks like I am ordering them today!

[Slow Play Ray]

[ QUOTE ]
looks like I am ordering them today!

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent idea.

as i have seen stated in the past though, take it all with a grain of salt. there is a lot of good information in them, but also a lot of stuff that will make you go hmmmmm?

[VinnyTheFish]

I love it! There should be more posters like you! Say it like is!! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
why fight the big stack? Why risk on a coinf flip?


[/ QUOTE ]

;lkhfpgaoireghapoieurhgopiareguhasiugsa.


This guy is not a big stack, you both have 10 bbs. That is NOT a big stack. You are not "risking your tournament life" on a coinflip. YOU DONT KNOW HE HAS A PAIR. AQ is way more likely in fact than a specific pair. AA is extremely unlikely given how fast he played it, as well as KK. You're probably over 70% against his range, but I pulled that number out of my ass. This is a trivially easy call.

Dont be afraid of "coinflips."

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why fight the big stack? Why risk on a coinf flip?


[/ QUOTE ]

;lkhfpgaoireghapoieurhgopiareguhasiugsa.


This guy is not a big stack, you both have 10 bbs. That is NOT a big stack. You are not "risking your tournament life" on a coinflip. YOU DONT KNOW HE HAS A PAIR. AQ is way more likely in fact than a specific pair. AA is extremely unlikely given how fast he played it, as well as KK. You're probably over 70% against his range, but I pulled that number out of my ass. This is a trivially easy call.

Dont be afraid of "coinflips."

[/ QUOTE ]

[JustPlayingSmart]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a trivially easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are understating how easy this call is. I am being serious.